Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

12z NAM shows a later start time up through Loudoun/Fairfax/DC. -SN toward 20z vs 17z. Delayed onset closer to sunset now with heavier bands working in. Might see higher end of the 4-6, possibly 8” with cooler night time ground and more efficient accumulation. Soundings also showing decent lift in the dendritic snow growth region. 

Definitely happy with a later start time, for two reasons. One is like you said above, and second I have errands to do today and it has to be today.

[Interstate]

I am going with 1.8967586734 inches here in 21057

 

28.4/20.2

[Warm Nose]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

3k looks about 7" in the city.  I'd cut it down to 5 and call it a day

Yep, lop off 25% from those juiced up maps and that's probably the target

[high risk]

When looking at the NAM Nest (3 km), the snow product that is truest to the actual internal model microphysics is the Ferrier accumulation.  It does, however, tend to run slightly low, so I like mentally blending it with the 10:1 product.

[dailylurker]

16 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said:

How does it look for us in Central AA county?  So much doom and gloom. . . 

That's from the fokes along the MD line. I think we're in the jack. From my experience when you see the jack slightly south of us at this range it usually means it will slip north during game time. I do think there's a very sharp cut off once you get north of Glenn Burnie where it tapers to flurries and spotty snow showers due to dry air. I think from crofton down through south country will jack. Similar to Jan 6th but probably more in the 6" range instead of the 10 we got past time. We should exceed climo by tomorrow morning. Enjoy!!!!

[WVsnowlover]

12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Yeah that's north a little north

 Very slight step back from 6z but still by far the best model for northern areas.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

When looking at the NAM Nest (3 km), the snow product that is truest to the actual internal model microphysics is the Ferrier accumulation.  It does, however, tend to run slightly low, so I like mentally blending it with the 10:1 product.

Still running on TT but looks like it'll take the metros over 5" so I'm willing to take that

[hstorm]

Today’s Georgetown Pike obs: Lots of plows sitting around and doing nothing. 
 

32.0/21 in Great Falls. Not worried about temps at the start. We’ve been below freezing for 12 hours and there is a thick cloud deck. Ground is and will be cold. 

[H2O]

33/22  waiting

[wxdude64]

Just measured on the uncleared snowboard, 4.2 inches. Rate has backed off in last 5 minutes and flakes aren't giant parachutes like they were. Hoping all get to enjoy this.

[SnowtoRain]

30.9/21.6 low of 24.3. 

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

That's from the fokes along the MD line. I think we're in the jack. From my experience when you see the jack slightly south of us at this range it usually means it will slip north during game time. I do think there's a very sharp cut off once you get north of Glenn Burnie where it tapers to flurries and spotty snow showers due to dry air. I think from crofton down through south country will jack. Similar to Jan 6th but probably more in the 6" range instead of the 10 we got past time. We should exceed climo by tomorrow morning. Enjoy!!!!

lol fokes 

[katabatic]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

Just measured on the uncleared snowboard, 4.2 inches. Rate has backed off in last 5 minutes and flakes aren't giant parachutes like they were. 

Already a heck of a storm! Great pic earlier too btw. Hoping this is only half way done for ya. Just cloudy and cold here 24.8/16.8.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

lol fokes 

Oh no! I'm turning into my grandfather lol.

Radar looks decent. 

[MN Transplant]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Still running on TT but looks like it'll take the metros over 5" so I'm willing to take that

5” is a very realistic target for us

[adelphi_sky]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Definitely happy with a later start time, for two reasons. One is like you said above, and second I have errands to do today and it has to be today.

I'm out of bacon. Gotta have bacon. Going to run to the store right after my 9:30am meeting. 33 here and cloudy. Got down to 28 last night. I just want sledable snow. 

[bncho]

Hopefully the whole forum can get a boom scenario 
This is from CWG:

[Massanothing]

Light snow just starting here.....30/22

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Oh no! I'm turning into my grandfather lol.

Radar looks decent. 

I’m curious to see how long you virga 

[Terpeast]

Hrrr not as good as 12z, but still better than 11z and earlier runs. 0.4" qpf at DCA and still snowing lightly. still gives 3-5" dc metro area, 2-4" NW suburbs. I think hrrr is just too dry.

[JB Fins]

Light snow in Tuckahoe for the last 15 minutes.  

[dailylurker]

Just now, mappy said:

I’m curious to see how long you virga 

Probably for a while. I'm packing right now for a day hike. I was hoping to get some snow during the day but that's looking less likely. I might have to make camp and make dinner out there. Anyone is welcome to join me! The weed is on me lol

[NorthArlington101]

Some nice pics from a colleague with snow in Richmond. Congrats to the folks down south!

[T. August]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Some nice pics from a colleague with snow in Richmond. Congrats to the folks down south!

Except that one guy

[Chris78]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12k

I really hope the Nam is right. Ussually a good idea to pin your hopes to the Nam right? 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Probably for a while. I'm packing right now for a day hike. I was hoping to get some snow during the day but that's looking less likely. I might have to make camp and make dinner out there. Anyone is welcome to join me! The weed is on me lol

Got it. Hope that virga doesn’t eat too much of your qpf. Would hate to see the new north and west bust 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I really hope the Nam is right. Ussually a good idea to pin your hopes to the Nam right? 

Probably a tad bullish. I'd go with a compromise between 3k nam and hrrr. Still 3-6" for dc metro.

[LeesburgWx]

My latte tasting way better now after seeing the slight north shift on the NAMs

[IronTy]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12k

I must have really pleased the snow gods earlier this year.  Jackpot right over my house again.  Liking that tiny dark 10" purple spot just to the east of Waldorf.   

[JB Fins]

Pic from a coworker in Chester, VA, been snowing there about an hour.  Will monitor his reports for switchover details later.