Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

For posterity, final call for MBY: 4.2”. Don’t care what all ya’ll get otherwise 

I have to sadly predict 2.2” for MBY, might be overdone  but maybe there’s a NW death band that’ll show up. I won’t be there for it, so I’m sure there will be a surprise. 

[stormy]

19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to agree with you there, but I will say that if this fails like the HRRR is insinuating, this would be an egregious black eye on NWP outside one model that goes out only 48 hrs. I'm actually running into pessimism now looking at the HRRR consistently degrading this event. We are fast approaching its window where we would want to pay closer attention and it's not very enthusiastic, even within the heaviest precip core in VA. I'm going down guns blazing with my call, but this could end up being a ho-hum event. Sorry to sound negative, but the HRRR is not budging and it may just be on to something. Hopefully it's just ON something and missing the big picture. Fingers crossed

I was surprised about 2 hrs ago when first looking at the HRRR  and hour much it dry slots my area.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

HRRR has DC almost at 0.5 QPF now, and 0z was closer to 0.3.  I think it is slowly catching on. 

[dailylurker]

Calling all lowlanders:

As you know we're in the mist of a fantastic winter. Please keep in mind we are the new N&W, and yes. We are a snow town. Please be humble when reporting your massive accumulations tomorrow morning. 

LooooooowwwwwwwLANDERS!!!!! LFG!

 

[stormy]

My 4 model blend at 7 am is 8.7 inches.  Began snowing about 8.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

My 4 model blend at 7 am is 8.7 inches.  Began snowing about 8.

You’re gonna get rocked down there, enjoy it! Make sure to go on a few Jebs 

[MDScienceTeacher]

29 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

For some reason we dont have enough laptops to give out to every kid. Elementary school kids dont have a 1:1 ratio. Also they said some kids dont have internet access.

For being one of the richest counties in the country we surprisingly can afford little. I am a hcpss supporter but will call them out on foolishness.

I also agree that busses will be back in the yard before any meaningful accumulation. 3 hours is a joke. I am sure we are closed tomorrow. Sorry to derail the obs thread.

Currently cloudy and 28.

 

A snow day is a snow day. It is sacred in my opinion and shall not be infringed upon.  Even if the technology is available for virtual alternatives.  

[mikeg0305]

I have to sadly predict 2.2” for MBY, might be overdone  but maybe there’s a NW death band that’ll show up. I won’t be there for it, so I’m sure there will be a surprise. 

I’m taking the under on mby in Parkton. I’m not even getting the tractor/plow out.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, MDScienceTeacher said:

A snow day is a snow day. It is sacred in my opinion and shall not be infringed upon.  Even if the technology is available for virtual alternatives.  

I like the virtual thing.  Kids and teachers barely have to do anything, it's basically still a snow day and then u don't have to make the day up.  Everyone wins.

[MillvilleWx]

My final call is:

SoPA through N MD down to I-70 latitude: 1-4" with a North-South gradient

Central MD over into the Central East Shore north of Rt50: 2-5" with a Northwest-Southeast gradient of low to high

Rt50 to Waldorf Latitude: 3-6" with more further south and east

DC metro: 3-5"

Baltimore metro: 2-4"

Lower Slower DE: 3-7"; max away from coast

Northern half of DE: 1-4" with North-South gradient

SoMD south of Waldorf: 5-8"

Georgetown: Sadness

[wxdude64]

I-64 at Low Moor exit (21), about 3 miles away from me. Caved bigtime.

[clskinsfan]

Took the evening off from the models to avoid frustration. 6z 3K looked amazing for my area. Final call for mby 5 inches. 

29/19

[psuhoffman]

For northern MD crew.
 

I was holding out some hope that 2 things could save us. A sneaky h7 associated band on the northern fringe and maybe getting a couple inches then ice from wave 2.  Both of those hopes are fading. 
 

The h7 forcing is going north of us. It’s very disconnected from the main moisture feed, very similar to Jan 6. This will limit that bands effectiveness but could mean a 2-4” surprise for some places up in central PA that aren’t forecasted to get much snow at all.  But we are likely stuck in between again like Jan 6 only worse, I think there is more dry air and less healthy moisture transport with this one. 
 

The second option doesn’t look good either. The euro showed the mid level winds ahead of the amplifying second wave to be more s-n which eradicates the mid level cold faster and doesn’t allow for much WAA associated precip to break out ahead of the low. You need resistance to get lift and precip. If the warm just bullies the cold away you don’t get the lift.  The gfs and NAMs were showing a more SW-NE wind trajectory which lead to more cold resistance and a nice WAA thump snow. Alas they caved to the euro. 
 

My best guess for us is 1-3” from wave 1 and then maybe a little sleet and freezing rain to start wave 2 before it all gets washed away. 
 

If the coming period is what I expect our area should have our more typical geographical advantages in a more amplified pattern. 

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

My 4 model blend at 7 am is 8.7 inches.  Began snowing about 8.

Your area looks awesome. Enjoy, and take lots of pictures!! 

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

I’m taking the under on mby in Parkton. I’m not even getting the tractor/plow out.

Me neither.  I told my wife whatever falls will be gone by Thursday anyways.

[Warm Nose]

Expecting 3" here, anything beyond that is a bonus. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Me neither.  I told my wife whatever falls will be gone by Thursday anyways.

Yep. Plan your jebwalks accordingly and take pictures!

[aldie 22]

Just now, Warm Nose said:

Expecting 3" here, anything beyond that is a bonus. 

Curious when you say Western Loudoun are you talking western western or just to the west of 15 so technically western?

[EastCoast NPZ]

WWA out here.  Pathetic.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

WWA out here.  Pathetic.

We'll be alright. I am happy with the look of radar already. Heaviest stuff may be a little south of us. But we have better temps. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

WWA out here.  Pathetic.

You get used to it 

[Fozz]

11 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Me neither.  I told my wife whatever falls will be gone by Thursday anyways.

I’m sticking to my 2-2.5” call IMBY. I don’t buy the most dire scenarios and so far things are looking juicy in VA.

I think we’re in for a fun evening.

[H2O]

Gonna be thankful for anything i get and know that the tables will turn at some point.  Lowlander here who roots for everyone except short pump and Carbondale

[Warm Nose]

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Curious when you say Western Loudoun are you talking western western or just to the west of 15 so technically western?

I'm about a mile from the Blue Ridge at 800', so far Western Loudoun

[adelphi_sky]

I'll go conservative and call for 8" IMBY. 

[Bob Chill]

Ridin the edge but still all snow. Prob gonna lull then sleet here shortly. 2" of potato glue. Smith mtn showing its face now. Beautiful morning 

[Solution Man]

StnID: kiad    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO

 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
250211/0100Z   1  01003KT  35.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/0200Z   2  VRB02KT  33.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/0300Z   3  VRB02KT  32.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/0400Z   4  VRB02KT  31.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/0500Z   5  VRB02KT  30.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/0600Z   6  VRB01KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250211/0700Z   7  VRB02KT  30.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/0800Z   8  VRB02KT  29.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/0900Z   9  VRB02KT  29.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/1000Z  10  VRB02KT  29.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/1100Z  11  VRB01KT  29.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/1200Z  12  07003KT  29.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250211/1300Z  13  VRB02KT  29.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/1400Z  14  VRB02KT  31.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/1500Z  15  13003KT  32.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/1600Z  16  13008KT  32.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/1700Z  17  14006KT  31.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250211/1800Z  18  13005KT  31.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   10:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250211/1900Z  19  15005KT  31.4F  SNOW   14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042   13:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
250211/2000Z  20  14005KT  31.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086   11:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
250211/2100Z  21  14003KT  30.8F  SNOW   11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092   11:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
250211/2200Z  22  09003KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.112   11:1|  3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0
250211/2300Z  23  08005KT  30.5F  SNOW   10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118   10:1|  4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46  100|  0|  0
250212/0000Z  24  06004KT  30.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093   10:1|  5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250212/0100Z  25  06006KT  30.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077   10:1|  6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63  100|  0|  0
250212/0200Z  26  04006KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058   10:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69  100|  0|  0
250212/0300Z  27  04006KT  30.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039   10:1|  7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0
250212/0400Z  28  03006KT  30.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031   10:1|  7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0
250212/0500Z  29  04005KT  30.5F  SNOW    4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   10:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78  100|  0|  0
250212/0600Z  30  02005KT  30.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008   10:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250212/0700Z  31  05005KT  30.6F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003   10:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0
250212/0800Z  32  05005KT  30.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  0|  0
250212/0900Z  33  06005KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  0|  0
250212/1000Z  34  06005KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  0|  0
250212/1100Z  35  04005KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  0|  0
250212/1200Z  36  04005KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250212/1300Z  37  04005KT  30.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250212/1400Z  38  04005KT  30.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
250212/1500Z  39  06005KT  31.4F  SNPL    3:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    3:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   43| 57|  0
250212/1600Z  40  05005KT  31.9F  SNPL    4:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.011    4:1|  0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.01   45| 55|  0
250212/1700Z  41  05004KT  32.3F  SNPL    9:1| 0.2|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.026    7:1|  0.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.04   80| 20|  0
250212/1800Z  42  07004KT  32.3F  SNOW   16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   12:1|  1.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

 

Not bad around Dulles ~8 inches

[DanTheMan]

29/26, the NAM did the best for my backyard 1/6 so riding it today

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I’m sticking to my 2-2.5” call IMBY. I don’t buy the most dire scenarios and so far things are looking juicy in VA.

I think we’re in for a fun evening.

Yeah but the Apps kills west to east snowfall in this area.

[AACOUNTYMD]

22 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Calling all lowlanders:

As you know we're in the mist of a fantastic winter. Please keep in mind we are the new N&W, and yes. We are a snow town. Please be humble when reporting your massive accumulations tomorrow morning. 

LooooooowwwwwwwLANDERS!!!!! LFG!

 

How does it look for us in Central AA county?  So much doom and gloom. . .