Solution Man Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:15 PM, EstorilM said: Hopefully, I remember the old ST posts lol. Expand Me too, was there with you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18z HRRR gets first flakes out here late morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Leaking Gut Storm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:21 PM, clskinsfan said: 18z HRRR gets first flakes out here late morning. Expand Map or it didn't happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 HRRR is pretty ugly. Glad it is a steaming plie of crap model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:29 PM, clskinsfan said: HRRR is pretty ugly. Glad it is a steaming plie of crap model Expand Nevermind the map then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:06 PM, Ellinwood said: Snow forecast for February 11-12... lots of uncertainties with precip types on the south end and QPF amounts on the north end, and some areas could suffer rate issues during the afternoon. As a result, forecast confidence isn't that great. Expand Good map. I’m well out of the gray of goddammit and cyan of sadness. Last time I was in The cyan of sadness it turned into goddammit gray. But sitting well within the light blue of booyah is comforting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:31 PM, H2O said: Good map. I’m well out of the gray of goddammit and cyan of sadness. Last time I was in The cyan of sadness it turned into goddammit gray. But sitting well within the light blue of booyah is comforting. Expand Maybe next time we can get the promised land of purple, or better yet pandemonium pink…good to have goals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 PA border counties have a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 HRRR just has dry air kill the early phases of the storm in much of Maryland. If not for that, it may have looked like an uninspiring but not so bad run. Hopefully it’s being too stingy with moisture in the NE reaches of the shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:29 PM, clskinsfan said: HRRR is pretty ugly. Glad it is a steaming plie of crap model Expand On 2/10/2025 at 7:39 PM, clskinsfan said: Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 WWA up on the PA side of the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:29 PM, clskinsfan said: HRRR is pretty ugly. Glad it is a steaming plie of crap model Expand It is....but.... 90% of the time lately its been way off because its been over amplified and way too far north at range...so it being south and dry like that...well its not what I would want to see. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:44 PM, psuhoffman said: It is....but.... 90% of the time lately its been way off because its been over amplified and way too far north at range...so it being south and dry like that...well its not what I would want to see. Expand Well the 18Z is better than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 HRRR was the first red flag in that Mar 7 2018 bust because it is almost always over amplified but the evening before when all guidance was showing 4-8" of snow across northeast MD, it starting deamplifying and shifting the snow well northeast...and a few hours later all the 0z guidance came in showing the same thing. It's generally crap at range and hard to use because you can't tell when its on to something or just on something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We 'bout to really do this? HRRR? 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:39 PM, clskinsfan said: Expand Not that it matters, but the QPF around DC is 0.45”, which is about the RGEM/ICON/Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Not to be pessimistic, but we onlt got 2.4 here from the Jan 6th storm. This looks like a weaker of version of that, and in the last 10 years the best bet for this location is take NWS forecast and divide by 2. I am thinking 1-2 inches. Grassy surfaces only Baltimore/DC will do better. Maybe 3-4 inches there. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:47 PM, stormtracker said: We 'bout to really do this? HRRR? Expand It's like the NOGAPS/navgem reverse bias. If you see it amped, that's good because its usually progressive. If the HRRR is progressive and de-amped, shit because it's usually amped. Na mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:46 PM, psuhoffman said: HRRR was the first red flag in that Mar 7 2018 bust because it is almost always over amplified but the evening before when all guidance was showing 4-8" of snow across northeast MD, it starting deamplifying and shifting the snow well northeast...and a few hours later all the 0z guidance came in showing the same thing. It's generally crap at range and hard to use because you can't tell when its on to something or just on something Expand Qpf looks sorta like AI's last couple runs to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:47 PM, stormtracker said: We 'bout to really do this? HRRR? Expand lol its way way way down on the list of data I would weight heavily but it's showing the opposite of what I would want to see given it has tended to be way over amplified at range. I would prefer to see it showing things too far north frankly. Of course where I am I want things to be north in general. This is looking like a very similar setup to Jan 6th which is super YUCK to me but I am happy for those of you to my south who will enjoy this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:47 PM, RevWarReenactor said: Not to be pessimistic, but we onlt got 2.4 here from the Jan 6th storm. This looks like a weaker of version of that, and in the last 10 years the best best for this location is take NWS forecast and divide by 2. I am thinking 1-2 inches. Grassy surfaces only Baltimore/DC will do better. Maybe 3-4 inches there. Expand Not sure why you think it’s grassy surfaces only. It will be cold enough to stick. It’s just a qpf issue for us further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:47 PM, RevWarReenactor said: Not to be pessimistic, but we onlt got 2.4 here from the Jan 6th storm. This looks like a weaker of version of that, and in the last 10 years the best bet for this location is take NWS forecast and divide by 2. I am thinking 1-2 inches. Grassy surfaces only Baltimore/DC will do better. Maybe 3-4 inches there. Expand This one is not going to be the one to break your streak of bad luck. Sorry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:19 PM, mappy said: Why is 7-9am at the bottom!!?!!! Expand To make you ask questions, success!!! 45 and looking forward to our digital storm here in Fredericksburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:41 PM, baltosquid said: HRRR just has dry air kill the early phases of the storm in much of Maryland. If not for that, it may have looked like an uninspiring but not so bad run. Hopefully it’s being too stingy with moisture in the NE reaches of the shield. Expand Yea it's ugly for I-70 north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:49 PM, psuhoffman said: lol its way way way down on the list of data I would weight heavily but it's showing the opposite of what I would want to see given it has tended to be way over amplified at range. I would prefer to see it showing things too far north frankly. Of course where I am I want things to be north in general. This is looking like a very similar setup to Jan 6th which is super YUCK to me but I am happy for those of you to my south who will enjoy this one. Expand Might be right. NAM drier out west so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Bedford, and Somerset 231 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Bedford, Fulton, and Somerset Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday. Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of York, Lancaster, Chambersburg, Gettysburg, and Carlisle 231 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3 inches. * WHERE...Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, Lancaster, and York Counties. * WHEN...From 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We're under a warning down these parts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:51 PM, stormtracker said: Might be right. NAM drier out west so far Expand It's just anecdotal but over the years I've noticed something with the HRRR when it doesn't match up with other guidance...when its more amplified/north/wetter than everything else it almost never is right. When its less amplified or south/dryer...it sometimes is right and the next run of other guidance moves towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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