Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[Bob Chill]

This is where i'm at. Pic is pretty bright. It's dark grey and mod snow sticking like glue everywhere. Nice 

 

[Imgoinhungry]

Too late now lol

Mcps has not yet announced. And dont think they will


.

[hstorm]

29.8/20. Overnight low was 28.4. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Sticking with my 5.6" call from yesterday for mby with some amazing consistency with some of these models give or take some wobbles. Has Woodbridge to Fredericksburg ever NOT been in the bullseye with this thing? That type of long run hit is what we all wish for. Congrats guys enjoy the snow.

I'd feel real nice if I was in EZF or Hartwood.  Not sure about Woodbridge.  It will be interesting to see where that deep blue band sets up.  

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

You actually may be the most accurate person in Loudoun county. I think 5.6 is exactly what we’ll get

I would like more though 

[wxdude64]

42 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Currently mod snow and 29.1/23.4 at 6:45 am here. Looks like about 1/2 inch so far I'll know for sure in about 10 minutes when doing CoCoRaHS, started just before 6 am. 

Getting pretty good at snow guesses, lol. At 7 am we had 0.6 on the snowboard. Currently at 7:30 it is snowing hard and 28.9/26.5. I'd guess another 0.5 since I've cleared the board at 7. 

[ForestHillWx]

Good luck down there. My parents now live northwest of Lexington; they said are looking at 5-8” with snow on the ground already. 

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Good luck down there. My parents now live northwest of Lexington; they said are looking at 5-8” with snow on the ground already. 

Goshen? Rockbridge Baths? Rt 39 is a beautiful drive between Lexington and state line.

[mitchnick]

Heckofa fetch

https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/ir/

[mdhokie]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

HoCo abandoned virtual school on snow days a couple years ago at the first ever chance to attempt it. Never went back.

Oh interesting. I maintain that they could do a full day today. School buses won’t spontaneously explode when touched by snowflakes. Cancelling after school activities is obviously the prudent choice.

For some reason we dont have enough laptops to give out to every kid. Elementary school kids dont have a 1:1 ratio. Also they said some kids dont have internet access.

For being one of the richest counties in the country we surprisingly can afford little. I am a hcpss supporter but will call them out on foolishness.

I also agree that busses will be back in the yard before any meaningful accumulation. 3 hours is a joke. I am sure we are closed tomorrow. Sorry to derail the obs thread.

Currently cloudy and 28.

 

[ForestHillWx]

9 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Goshen? Rockbridge Baths? Rt 39 is a beautiful drive between Lexington and state line.

Rockbridge sounds familiar, north of Kerr’s Creek; candidly haven’t made the drive yet with the 3 kiddos. 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Heckofa fetch

https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/ir/

That is a great fetch. I’m thinking the Nam 3k is going to be more right than the hrrr because the nam strengthens or maintains fetch strength while the hrrr weakens it. 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That is a great fetch. I’m thinking the Nam 3k is going to be more right than the hrrr because the nam strengthens or maintains fetch strength while the hrrr weakens it. 

I want to agree with you there, but I will say that if this fails like the HRRR is insinuating, this would be an egregious black eye on NWP outside one model that goes out only 48 hrs. I'm actually running into pessimism now looking at the HRRR consistently degrading this event. We are fast approaching its window where we would want to pay closer attention and it's not very enthusiastic, even within the heaviest precip core in VA. I'm going down guns blazing with my call, but this could end up being a ho-hum event. Sorry to sound negative, but the HRRR is not budging and it may just be on to something. Hopefully it's just ON something and missing the big picture. Fingers crossed

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to agree with you there, but I will say that if this fails like the HRRR is insinuating, this would be an egregious black eye on NWP outside one model that goes out only 48 hrs. I'm actually running into pessimism now looking at the HRRR consistently degrading this event. We are fast approaching its window where we would want to pay closer attention and it's not very enthusiastic, even within the heaviest precip core in VA. I'm going down guns blazing with my call, but this could end up being a ho-hum event. Sorry to sound negative, but the HRRR is not budging and it may just be on to something. Hopefully it's just ON something and missing the big picture. Fingers crossed

I’ve paid attention to enough severe events where the HRRR is just wrong,  but think it’s probably an apples to oranges comparison. If the HRRR is right it’ll be very hard to ignore at short range next time… at least until it’s wrong again. 

[Scraff]

Oh no! Jim Cantore is in DC!! Cantore is code word for HRRR. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to agree with you there, but I will say that if this fails like the HRRR is insinuating, this would be an egregious black eye on NWP outside one model that goes out only 48 hrs. I'm actually running into pessimism now looking at the HRRR consistently degrading this event. We are fast approaching its window where we would want to pay closer attention and it's not very enthusiastic, even within the heaviest precip core in VA. I'm going down guns blazing with my call, but this could end up being a ho-hum event. Sorry to sound negative, but the HRRR is not budging and it may just be on to something. Hopefully it's just ON something and missing the big picture. Fingers crossed

Yeah plenty reason to be nervous about hrrr. But if it makes you feel better, it ticked north at 11z and the new 12z filled out the moisture fetch on the backside. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Oh no! Jim Cantore is in DC!! Cantore is code word for HRRR. 

He shoulda gone to EZF

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ve paid attention to enough severe events where the HRRR is just wrong,  but think it’s probably an apples to oranges comparison. If the HRRR is right it’ll be very hard to ignore at short range next time… at least until it’s wrong again. 

That's the one thing about the HRRR. It has such wild swings in failure and being right that it's hard to discern when it is on to something or on something...

Working a primary convective based desk has allowed me to see both sides of that coin a fair amount. The 13z run will have the 12z data ingest, so that would be the run to really keep an eye on trends. Still a ways before the event for here in HRRR time, so there's an opportunity it corrects and we'll be good to go. Much of the suite doesn't agree with it. ARW is the closest thing to the HRRR at the moment, but it's still better spatially with the QPF distribution. I'm hoping the HRRR is having convective scheme issues and robbing the meridional push of the main 7H moisture fetch. 

[Jrlg1181]

First flakes just started here in Waynesboro...

[Baltimorewx]

Looks like the 12z HRRR is trending better 

[nj2va]

3k has that warm nose around 10p at DCA for a brief mix to sleet before flipping back. 
 

All systems go for a 3-7” event. 

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah plenty reason to be nervous about hrrr. But if it makes you feel better, it ticked north at 11z and the new 12z filled out the moisture fetch on the backside. 

12z does look a bit better, so hopefully we continue to step in the right direction. I'm telling you, I like what I see on satellite, so hopefully it'll come around. I'd like to bring this one home. 

Also, because of work obligations for early tomorrow morning, I will be stationed in College Park for this one at a local hotel. So if the DC area fails, @stormtracker can just blame me. I'm a meteorologist and I'm married. I'm used to getting blamed for things

[MN Transplant]

I consider the 12z HRRR to be a complete cave.  0.5” precip up to DC.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

12z does look a bit better, so hopefully we continue to step in the right direction. I'm telling you, I like what I see on satellite, so hopefully it'll come around. I'd like to bring this one home. 

Also, because of work obligations for early tomorrow morning, I will be stationed in College Park for this one at a local hotel. So if the DC area fails, @stormtracker can just blame me. I'm a meteorologist and I'm married. I'm used to getting blamed for things

What about the radar do you like?

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to agree with you there, but I will say that if this fails like the HRRR is insinuating, this would be an egregious black eye on NWP outside one model that goes out only 48 hrs. I'm actually running into pessimism now looking at the HRRR consistently degrading this event. We are fast approaching its window where we would want to pay closer attention and it's not very enthusiastic, even within the heaviest precip core in VA. I'm going down guns blazing with my call, but this could end up being a ho-hum event. Sorry to sound negative, but the HRRR is not budging and it may just be on to something. Hopefully it's just ON something and missing the big picture. Fingers crossed

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I consider the 12z HRRR to be a complete cave.  0.5” precip up to DC.

PHEW

[Chris_B]

NAM vs HRRR.  Let the games begin.

 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

12z does look a bit better, so hopefully we continue to step in the right direction. I'm telling you, I like what I see on satellite, so hopefully it'll come around. I'd like to bring this one home. 

Also, because of work obligations for early tomorrow morning, I will be stationed in College Park for this one at a local hotel. So if the DC area fails, @stormtracker can just blame me. I'm a meteorologist and I'm married. I'm used to getting blamed for things

Such a classic one in the last sentence. Too many things to get blamed for! I too would be quite bullish going strictly off satellite images and WV, as the connection on this one is a long fetch of moisture with the gulf open for business. It wouldn’t appear to be moisture starved. Here’s to hoping the HRRR catches on at 13z, even though this is a 1-3” event for MBY.

had to change my flight out of DCA to 1230 today when I was looking at radar and obs before bed. 4pm would likely have been no go even down in UHI hell. 

[baltosquid]

HRRR looks way better. Let’s hope it’s not the only adjustment! Still a few hours until game time up here.

[wxdude64]

Snowing at well over an inch an hour here now, right at 2 inches.

[WxUSAF]

For posterity, final call for MBY: 4.2”. Don’t care what all ya’ll get otherwise