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Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs


WxUSAF
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Just now, aldie 22 said:

Sticking with my 5.6" call from yesterday for mby with some amazing consistency with some of these models give or take some wobbles. Has Woodbridge to Fredericksburg ever NOT been in the bullseye with this thing? That type of long run hit is what we all wish for. Congrats guys enjoy the snow.

It has been super consistent for that group, yes. File it under “I definitely want to be in the bullseye on every run every time”…

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Meh, at least they get some of the day in a building. I see a lot of counties closing, or going virtual, tomorrow. 

HoCo abandoned virtual school on snow days a couple years ago at the first ever chance to attempt it. Never went back.

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

They probably would’ve announced that last night, but they were busy with a board budgeting meeting.

Oh interesting. I maintain that they could do a full day today. School buses won’t spontaneously explode when touched by snowflakes. Cancelling after school activities is obviously the prudent choice.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

HoCo abandoned virtual school on snow days a couple years ago at the first ever chance to attempt it. Never went back.

Oh interesting. I maintain that they could do a full day today. School buses won’t spontaneously explode when touched by snowflakes. Cancelling after school activities is obviously the prudent choice.

Ahh got it. First time trying it for BCPS. And it will be synchronous learning, at least 4hrs. We shall see if they have to go for it tomorrow

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9 minutes ago, H2O said:

29.8/23. Clouds held off long enough to cool almost 16° from my high yesterday. 
 

Now the waiting game begins. Good luck to everyone and I hope y’all see lots of snow

We won’t up here but enjoy this again - nice that you got good early help on the temps , should be a really good winter event.

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9 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Reading. What more is there to say? Congrats to the usual winners in the forum for getting to fully enjoy what we all love for the sixth year in a row while we get hosed. 

At this point we might as well assume that getting fringed is our climo. Saves us from disappointment later on.

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4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

At this point we might as well assume that getting fringed is our climo. Saves us from disappointment later on.

lol a string of shit storms doesn’t make it our new normal. Just enjoy what you get instead of focusing on what you didnt

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I may be wrong but the radar seems pretty ahead of schedule? If anyone smarter than me wants to weigh in on that, it would be appreciated.

I am not smarter than you but I think perhaps also a tad ahead of schedule.  Dews in the teens though so it’ll take a bit to moisten. 

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Just now, mappy said:

lol a string of shit storms doesn’t make it our new normal. Just enjoy what you get instead of focusing on what you didnt

It will end at some point, but until then, here we are.

And this will be my last post on this topic ITT as I don’t want to fret any further.

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26 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I may be wrong but the radar seems pretty ahead of schedule? If anyone smarter than me wants to weigh in on that, it would be appreciated.

It’s not dissimilar to the sim radar on the NAMs - this is mostly supposed to be virga though, mPING does indicate some of it is making it. 
 

IMG_2784.thumb.png.149ad791842377f82f8662c30a8ab8ac.png

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19 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Currently mod snow and 29.1/23.4 at 6:45 am here. Looks like about 1/2 inch so far I'll know for sure in about 10 minutes when doing CoCoRaHS, started just before 6 am. 

I'm ahead of you for now lol but thats not going to last. Up over an inch and snowing steady. Def an overperform on this early part.  My only call for my yard was 3" max with a sleet topper and some ice that all ends up in the lakes within 36 hours lol 

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Sticking with my 5.6" call from yesterday for mby with some amazing consistency with some of these models give or take some wobbles. Has Woodbridge to Fredericksburg ever NOT been in the bullseye with this thing? That type of long run hit is what we all wish for. Congrats guys enjoy the snow.

You actually may be the most accurate person in Loudoun county. I think 5.6 is exactly what we’ll get
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