Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[mappy]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Nam qpf looks better for DC south, but I wouldn't say it's all that much better to the north.  Snowfall maps do nothing for me anymore...I've finally learned my lesson on those.  

I guess it’s all relative. If you can accept you won’t get 5”, then shoot for 3” 

[mitchnick]

Hey look at part 2 start

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z 3K NAM... 7pm area wide looks sweet!

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That is in addition to the sleet right?

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

3k nam has sleet making it up to DCA 

I'm not that surprised when you look at the surface high moving off the coast with the wind shift to the south.  Still looks like a great storm for the 270 split and south crew.

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

I guess it’s all relative. If you can accept you won’t get 5”, then shoot for 3” 

I think we might do well with ratios up here.  0.5" line is close.  I'm actually only under a WWA...still 2-4", which is fine.  Funny thing is, the forecast really hasn't changed much here...pretty rock solid the last couple days.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That is in addition to the sleet right?

Yes - sleet total (ignoring wave #2)

[wawarriors4]

23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

hubba hubba

0.81” qpf in 6 hrs and EZF…. Whew

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Solid dusting north of DC for the hrrr

I’m telling you when the HRRR is dry and under amplified sometimes it’s onto something. Not always but I pay it more attention when it’s doing that then when it’s wet and amped. 
 

Also I don’t like the trajectory. When waves are projected to be this west to east at our latitude on guidance 24 hours out make up all the times I can remember when things sunk south at game time. The early March 2014 storm was the kind of that. Took a 6-10” storm down to 3” across northern MD. 
 

I know the trajectory is just a symptom of the true cause, wave that’s not amplifying enough to overcome the cold press but I’ve found guidance tends to underestimate the northward progress of the moisture transport when a wave is amplifying and over estimate it when it’s not and the trajectory is a good simple way to see it. 
 

These things aren’t universal. I’m still watching. I’ve not given up. But I don’t have good vibes. 
 

ETA: this is for MD north of 70. I think DC is fine. I’d be excited if I still lived in VA. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m telling you when the HRRR is dry and under amplified sometimes it’s onto something. Not always but I pay it more attention when it’s doing that then when it’s wet and amped. 
 

Also I don’t like the trajectory. When waves are projected to be this west to east at our latitude on guidance 24 hours out make up all the times I can remember when things sunk south at game time. The early March 2014 storm was the kind of that. Took a 6-10” storm down to 3” across northern MD. 
 

I know the trajectory is just a symptom of the true cause, wave that’s not amplifying enough to overcome the cold press but I’ve found guidance tends to underestimate the northward progress of the moisture transport when a wave is amplifying and over estimate it when it’s not and the trajectory is a good simple way to see it. 
 

These things aren’t universal. I’m still watching. I’ve not given up. But I don’t have good vibes. 

For your area right?

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m telling you when the HRRR is dry and under amplified sometimes it’s onto something. Not always but I pay it more attention when it’s doing that then when it’s wet and amped. 
 

Also I don’t like the trajectory. When waves are projected to be this west to east at our latitude on guidance 24 hours out make up all the times I can remember when things sunk south at game time. The early March 2014 storm was the kind of that. Took a 6-10” storm down to 3” across northern MD. 
 

I know the trajectory is just a symptom of the true cause, wave that’s not amplifying enough to overcome the cold press but I’ve found guidance tends to underestimate the northward progress of the moisture transport when a wave is amplifying and over estimate it when it’s not and the trajectory is a good simple way to see it. 
 

These things aren’t universal. I’m still watching. I’ve not given up. But I don’t have good vibes. 
 

ETA: this is for MD north of 70. I think DC is fine. I’d be excited if I still lived in VA. 

I don’t like West to East. I want them more Southwest to Northeast. 

[87storms]

Well…regardless of what happens, we have a snowfall on our doorstep. This winter is demonstrably better than the last few.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m telling you when the HRRR is dry and under amplified sometimes it’s onto something. Not always but I pay it more attention when it’s doing that then when it’s wet and amped. 
 

Also I don’t like the trajectory. When waves are projected to be this west to east at our latitude on guidance 24 hours out make up all the times I can remember when things sunk south at game time. The early March 2014 storm was the kind of that. Took a 6-10” storm down to 3” across northern MD. 
 

I know the trajectory is just a symptom of the true cause, wave that’s not amplifying enough to overcome the cold press but I’ve found guidance tends to underestimate the northward progress of the moisture transport when a wave is amplifying and over estimate it when it’s not and the trajectory is a good simple way to see it. 
 

These things aren’t universal. I’m still watching. I’ve not given up. But I don’t have good vibes. 
 

ETA: this is for MD north of 70. I think DC is fine. I’d be excited if I still lived in VA. 

The introduction of sleet reaching DC on the 0z Nam runs tell me a northern push "may" be coming. Closest sleet before this run was a bit north of the Potomac. 

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, 87storms said:

Well…regardless of what happens, we have a snowfall on our doorstep. This winter is demonstrably better than the last few.

This. We're almost certain to see some snow falling and accumulating tomorrow, for the most part. That's more than most of us could say (outside of a single week in Jan. 2024) over the previous two winters. 

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m telling you when the HRRR is dry and under amplified sometimes it’s onto something. Not always but I pay it more attention when it’s doing that then when it’s wet and amped. 
 

Also I don’t like the trajectory. When waves are projected to be this west to east at our latitude on guidance 24 hours out make up all the times I can remember when things sunk south at game time. The early March 2014 storm was the kind of that. Took a 6-10” storm down to 3” across northern MD. 
 

I know the trajectory is just a symptom of the true cause, wave that’s not amplifying enough to overcome the cold press but I’ve found guidance tends to underestimate the northward progress of the moisture transport when a wave is amplifying and over estimate it when it’s not and the trajectory is a good simple way to see it. 
 

These things aren’t universal. I’m still watching. I’ve not given up. But I don’t have good vibes. 
 

ETA: this is for MD north of 70. I think DC is fine. I’d be excited if I still lived in VA. 

So what are you predicting for Northern MD?. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

This. We're almost certain to see some snow falling and accumulating tomorrow, for the most part. That's more than most of us could say (outside of a single week in Jan. 2024) over the previous two winters. 

There have been so many days this year with snow whether it be snow showers, actual snow, etc. 

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Well…regardless of what happens, we have a snowfall on our doorstep. This winter is demonstrably better than the last few.

Who hacked your account?. 

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ETA: this is for MD north of 70. I think DC is fine. I’d be excited if I still lived in VA. 

Considering I live more or less exactly where you did I'll just take this verbatim, hoping for a solid 4-7 down here with some solid jebwalks during the evening

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

There have been so many days this year with snow whether it be snow showers, actual snow, etc. 

Note I said the previous two winters. Not this winter. 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Considering I live more or less exactly where you did I'll just take this verbatim, hoping for a solid 4-7 down here with some solid jebwalks during the evening

We’re pretty locked and loaded for a great 4-7” event.

[jayyy]

Euro & 3k NAM have the 6” line getting up to Baltimore and SE HOCO/MOCO. We’ll see what happens. A smidge worried models are overdoing how far north the heavier snows get but there’s also solid agreement among the models. Not loving where I live for this one. Will definitely be spending tomorrow into Wed AM down in HoCo in hopes of seeing the goods.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

So what are you predicting for Northern MD?. 

2-5” in Baltimore north to south. Not much of anything up here, maybe 2-3”. I might add some wave 2. 

[weatherkyle]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

2-5” in Baltimore north to south. 2-3” up here. I might add some wave 2. 

I'll take over 2.5"

[87storms]

Who hacked your account?. 

I have my moments

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The introduction of sleet reaching DC on the 0z Nam runs tell me a northern push "may" be coming. Closest sleet before this run was a bit north of the Potomac. 

We seem to do better when I’m skeptical so…

[WVclimo]

24/14 under fair skies.  Wind N at 3.

[Buddy1987]

LOL!! NAM with 1.29” of freezing rain here end of it’s run. 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2-5” in Baltimore north to south. Not much of anything up here, maybe 2-3”. I might add some wave 2. 

Can't wait to see pics of your 6" snowfall with your kids playing .

[Warm Nose]

Updated discussion from LWX. More of a re-read of the forecast than a discussion.

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
For the evening update, have refined timing of precip onset and
changeover but did not change snow amounts. Have raised ice
amounts west of I-95 Wednesday into Wednesday night based on
latest guidance and trends. Additional winter weather headlines
may be needed for this period especially west of US-15 and over
northern MD.

Otherwise, temperatures fall into the 20s to low 30s overnight.
Cloud cover increases overnight as surface low pressure
approaches from the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system will bring widespread snow to the area
Tuesday afternoon through the overnight. Snow overspreads the
area from southwest to northeast beginning Tuesday morning with
snow reaching the metro areas in the early afternoon. A Winter
Storm Warning is in effect for the areas along and south of
I-66 and the Washington DC metros. For the warned areas, heavy
snow is expected with total accumulations between 4-7 inches.
Locally higher amounts up to 8 inches are possible along the
highest ridges in the Blue Ridge and Allegheny mountains. Further
north, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for areas along
the MD/PA border with snow accumulation between 3 and 6 inches
expected. Ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch are
possible along and west of the Blue Ridge Tuesday through
Tuesday night with the greatest chances being for those in the
southern portions of the area.

Precipitation lulls Wednesday morning for a few hours before
another low pressure system brings another round of wintry
precipitation to the area. Mixed precipitation is expected with
the main threat being freezing rain beginning Wednesday
afternoon. A light wintry mix is possible Wednesday morning
into the midday, before a steadier wintry mix occurs late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Total snow
accumulations up to 1 inch and ice accumulations around one
quarter of an inch are possible with a Winter Storm Watch in
effect for the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge.

East of the Blue Ridge, temperatures will be above freezing with
precipitation type likely remaining as rain throughout the day.
To stay up to date with lastest headlines and accumulations,
visit weather.gov/lwx/winter

[mitchnick]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Can't wait to see pics of your 6" snowfall with your kids playing .

Me too