Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[wtkidz]

35 and steady snow in Fredericksburg.  Let’s see how this plays out. 

[deer]

flakes in lake ridge!

[Interstate]

I just got back and read the last five pages... and here are my thoughts

 

At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[Miss Pixee]

34/24DP in outer SE

Bright gray skies darkening up. Cloud cover uneven but thick.

[wxdude64]

1 pm measurement from the uncleared snowboard. 8.5" Currently 29.8/29.0 and snow still falling moderately to heavy at times.

[CAPE]

HRRR lookin pretty damn good to me.

[mappy]

32/19 with virga on my doorstep

[wawarriors4]

Snow noticeably heavier. Probably like 0.75 mile visibility stuff. Temp has dropped to 31.5.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

1 pm measurement from the uncleared snowboard. 8.5" Currently 29.8/29.0 and snow still falling moderately to heavy at times.

Wow! A win for some of the very aggressive modeling. Think that bodes well for the GFS' jackpot zone today, and hopefully for the rest of us too.

[TSG]

ripping fatties

[jayyy]

I don't understand all of the bust talk. The Euro/GFS/NAM all look solid for DC and ok for the 70 and south crew. Could it bust and the HRRR be right? Sure, but that would be a huge model bust among basically all the best models. Even CMC didn't look that bad IIRC.

I’d set the bar around 3.5” in the Columbia / EC area and you won’t be disappointed

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Wow! A win for some of the very aggressive modeling. Think that bodes well for the GFS' jackpot zone today, and hopefully for the rest of us too.

I've seen many 7-8 inch reports for this area (within 30 miles) sent in to NWS Blacksburg. Hope it verifies up that way too.

[EHoffman]

That stuff in Warrenton looks awfully juicy to me and it's heading right for DC.

[Eskimo Joe]

In New Windsor, the Catoctins are getting obscured. Soon.

[CAPE]

Snippet from Mount Holly early afternoon update-

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overall, the near term forecast remains on track as low pressure continues tracking east into the Deep South this afternoon. As it does so, this low will transfer its energy to a secondary low will form off the coast of North Carolina early this evening. This secondary low will track off the coast of the DelMarVa later on tonight. Overruning precipitation has begun to develop out ahead of the low and move northward into DelMarVa. Temperatures are now above freezing for most locations early this afternoon. However, with dew points still in the teens, wet-bulb temps remain at or below freezing across most of the region. Therefore, as precipitation saturates the boundary layer, surface temperatures will cool and snow is still expected at the onset this afternoon. Light to moderate snow will gradually progress northward through the the rest of the afternoon and into the evening from southwest to northeast, ultimately reaching the northern portions of the area by mid to late evening. Periods of heavy snow will be possible over the DelMarVa and portions of southern New Jersey this evening into tonight as well. This is supported quite well in some of the hi- res guidance which depicts a strong area of frontogenesis near 850 mb early this evening.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Wow! A win for some of the very aggressive modeling. Think that bodes well for the GFS' jackpot zone today, and hopefully for the rest of us too.

where's the rug pull Ji suggested

[EstorilM]

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I've seen many 7-8 inch reports for this area (within 30 miles) sent in to NWS Blacksburg. Hope it verifies up that way too.

Mike Thomas’ adjustments last night (narrowing the jackpot zone) look pretty good, I think he had 5-8” for a narrow swath. 
 

I don’t hear him mentioned much, but he’s a pretty good local met for Fox 5 and posts a LOT of stuff on X (especially before/during events.) @MikeTFox5

[jviper]

A few flakes in Gaithersburg. 

[TSG]

[weathervswife]

5” here now just SE of Charlottesville.  It’s been ripping all morning.

[jmk]

Flizzard in Gainesville,  just in time for elementary pickup.

[adelphi_sky]

4 minutes ago, TSG said:

Oy. Good snow, wet roads. Bring back mid Jan!

[diatae]

34/23 SN 

[EstorilM]

Damn, weather radio just set off in the tractor - I didn’t realize the mountains were in an ice storm warning for up to 1/3” of ice (AFTER the WSW stuff). 

That’s no joke… 

[konksw]

Snow looks to start in DC any minute now. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Flurries in Alexandria

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
115 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ053>055-057-526-527-120215-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-250212T1200Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St.
Marys-Calvert-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-
King George-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
115 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
  7 inches.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, central and southern Maryland,
  and central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact today`s evening commute, as well as the morning
  commute on Wednesday. Roads may become impassable due to the
  combination of heavy, wet snow through tonight, followed by
  significant icing Wednesday afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The steadiest snow is expected late this
  afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per
  hour and visibility below one half mile are possible during this
  time. A light wintry mix may continue into Wednesday

[wxdude64]

Pic at 1 pm of back deck, 8.5"

[Sernest14]

~2.5” in Ashland (just south of Kings dominion) 

main roads caved once we got under some heavy banding

[T. August]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

Pic at 1 pm of back deck, 8.5"

Incredible. What was the NWS forecast calling for?