Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 12z NAM shows a later start time up through Loudoun/Fairfax/DC. -SN toward 20z vs 17z. Delayed onset closer to sunset now with heavier bands working in. Might see higher end of the 4-6, possibly 8” with cooler night time ground and more efficient accumulation. Soundings also showing decent lift in the dendritic snow growth region. Definitely happy with a later start time, for two reasons. One is like you said above, and second I have errands to do today and it has to be today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I am going with 1.8967586734 inches here in 21057 28.4/20.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 3k looks about 7" in the city. I'd cut it down to 5 and call it a day Yep, lop off 25% from those juiced up maps and that's probably the target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 When looking at the NAM Nest (3 km), the snow product that is truest to the actual internal model microphysics is the Ferrier accumulation. It does, however, tend to run slightly low, so I like mentally blending it with the 10:1 product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: How does it look for us in Central AA county? So much doom and gloom. . . That's from the fokes along the MD line. I think we're in the jack. From my experience when you see the jack slightly south of us at this range it usually means it will slip north during game time. I do think there's a very sharp cut off once you get north of Glenn Burnie where it tapers to flurries and spotty snow showers due to dry air. I think from crofton down through south country will jack. Similar to Jan 6th but probably more in the 6" range instead of the 10 we got past time. We should exceed climo by tomorrow morning. Enjoy!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Yeah that's north a little north Very slight step back from 6z but still by far the best model for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, high risk said: When looking at the NAM Nest (3 km), the snow product that is truest to the actual internal model microphysics is the Ferrier accumulation. It does, however, tend to run slightly low, so I like mentally blending it with the 10:1 product. Still running on TT but looks like it'll take the metros over 5" so I'm willing to take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Today’s Georgetown Pike obs: Lots of plows sitting around and doing nothing. 32.0/21 in Great Falls. Not worried about temps at the start. We’ve been below freezing for 12 hours and there is a thick cloud deck. Ground is and will be cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 33/22 waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just measured on the uncleared snowboard, 4.2 inches. Rate has backed off in last 5 minutes and flakes aren't giant parachutes like they were. Hoping all get to enjoy this. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 30.9/21.6 low of 24.3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, dailylurker said: That's from the fokes along the MD line. I think we're in the jack. From my experience when you see the jack slightly south of us at this range it usually means it will slip north during game time. I do think there's a very sharp cut off once you get north of Glenn Burnie where it tapers to flurries and spotty snow showers due to dry air. I think from crofton down through south country will jack. Similar to Jan 6th but probably more in the 6" range instead of the 10 we got past time. We should exceed climo by tomorrow morning. Enjoy!!!! lol fokes 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, wxdude64 said: Just measured on the uncleared snowboard, 4.2 inches. Rate has backed off in last 5 minutes and flakes aren't giant parachutes like they were. Already a heck of a storm! Great pic earlier too btw. Hoping this is only half way done for ya. Just cloudy and cold here 24.8/16.8. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, mappy said: lol fokes Oh no! I'm turning into my grandfather lol. Radar looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Still running on TT but looks like it'll take the metros over 5" so I'm willing to take that 5” is a very realistic target for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Definitely happy with a later start time, for two reasons. One is like you said above, and second I have errands to do today and it has to be today. I'm out of bacon. Gotta have bacon. Going to run to the store right after my 9:30am meeting. 33 here and cloudy. Got down to 28 last night. I just want sledable snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hopefully the whole forum can get a boom scenario This is from CWG: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massanothing Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Light snow just starting here.....30/22 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Oh no! I'm turning into my grandfather lol. Radar looks decent. I’m curious to see how long you virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Hrrr not as good as 12z, but still better than 11z and earlier runs. 0.4" qpf at DCA and still snowing lightly. still gives 3-5" dc metro area, 2-4" NW suburbs. I think hrrr is just too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Light snow in Tuckahoe for the last 15 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, mappy said: I’m curious to see how long you virga Probably for a while. I'm packing right now for a day hike. I was hoping to get some snow during the day but that's looking less likely. I might have to make camp and make dinner out there. Anyone is welcome to join me! The weed is on me lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Some nice pics from a colleague with snow in Richmond. Congrats to the folks down south! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Some nice pics from a colleague with snow in Richmond. Congrats to the folks down south! Except that one guy 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12k I really hope the Nam is right. Ussually a good idea to pin your hopes to the Nam right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Probably for a while. I'm packing right now for a day hike. I was hoping to get some snow during the day but that's looking less likely. I might have to make camp and make dinner out there. Anyone is welcome to join me! The weed is on me lol Got it. Hope that virga doesn’t eat too much of your qpf. Would hate to see the new north and west bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Chris78 said: I really hope the Nam is right. Ussually a good idea to pin your hopes to the Nam right? Probably a tad bullish. I'd go with a compromise between 3k nam and hrrr. Still 3-6" for dc metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 My latte tasting way better now after seeing the slight north shift on the NAMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12k I must have really pleased the snow gods earlier this year. Jackpot right over my house again. Liking that tiny dark 10" purple spot just to the east of Waldorf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Pic from a coworker in Chester, VA, been snowing there about an hour. Will monitor his reports for switchover details later. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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