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Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs


WxUSAF
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19 minutes ago, Fozz said:

FV3 confirms everything that I’ve been wary about.

And with poor snow growth on the fringes (GFS has low ratios for Kuchera), I don’t even think 2” is a guarantee north of the Baltimore beltway.

I didn’t even see the HDRPS when I posted that. Good lord…

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HDRPS with a more GFS-like heavy band but brutal cutoff for NE MD. North move(s) can only do much against dry air, I guess?

IMG_2782.thumb.png.f40b7841405e38836300a0be15006e11.png

 

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20F here in 7 Sorings and snow making cloud has descended . seems like coming back early Tuesday we would get into DC good but majority here don’t want to. Cuts trip too short. So come back early afternoon Wed get to DC presumably after 6-8” has fallen. I’d rather drive into DC later Tuesday arriving 8pm after rush hour but not driving .  Any ideas glad to hesr 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Follow your user name and head just NW of the fall line.  :snowwindow:

I want to ride one storm out in the city - haven’t experienced any snow here yet. Anytime it snowed last year I fled back into NW Arl and was infamously out of town on Jan 6 this year. Worth a go this time… models swear it won’t make a difference. 
 

not gonna risk it on a coastal though. 

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Down to 30 in upper NW.   Sterling's AFD says temps are matching pretty well on the models upstairs.  Everything on track

Quote
Models remain in remarkable good agreement early this morning
with sfc features and thermal profiles. In addition, NUCAPS
data from a 0639Z NOAA-21 pass showed 925 and 850 temps right on
track with model fields. This raises confidence in the fcst for
a decent snow event across the region today through tonight.

 

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7 hours ago, Ji said:


Like waking up with temps at 38 like a few weeks ago

Well thankfully that disaster is avoided at least. Down to 26 earlier. 27/18.

 

HoCo grew a backbone. No early dismissal today (yet).

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