Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Paleocene said: IMO it is reasonably accurate in the like 2-8 hour range at showing future radar when a storm is already here/happening. NAM is a JV model that tells me what I like JK rain to start tomorrow Check the sounding. It’ll be snow. May not stick well at first though 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Looking at the 12z NAM im not so sure I'm seeing what you're seeing. The precip field looks further south... 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Huh? I said out west, it was wetter. Which it is? Break it up you two. This isn’t the time for family fighting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty much identical around 18 but concur with wetter out west. maybe a bit drier north okay- i'll take it back a bit after looking. Better meat of it south. Still not sure it'll matter a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Terpeast said: Check the sounding. It’ll be snow. May not stick well at first though Yeah just checked for MBY. Looks decent upstairs in that early window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 0z Hrr.. then the 2nd storm is trending toward rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This is probably going to be a wetter run if I had to guess now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 INDEED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I like this better than 18z, healthier more consolidated looking precip shield through 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Yeah, it's an incoming NAMing vs 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nam 12k at hour 21 is a pummeling. Let’s see what the higher res counterpart says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: okay- i'll take it back a bit after looking. Better meat of it south. Still not sure it'll matter a ton I actually think you were initially right, at least for the 12z with its 21 hour precip panel being a shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Only thing I can tell is that the 3K looks faster. School systems may get nervous after this run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: This is probably going to be a wetter run if I had to guess now Everyone is getting smoked at 21 minus our far N MD friends (sorry) - not shocked that the "southerly" push at 18 didn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I actually think you were initially right, at least for the 12z with its 21 hour precip panel being a shellacking. It just didn't end up mattering - it's a separate impulse really. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's a banger at tomorrow evening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Terpeast said: Nam 12k at hour 21 is a pummeling. Let’s see what the higher res counterpart says Whole lot of lift throughout the column, including the DGZ. If this sounding came true would the dominate snowflake type be dendrites or a combo of all of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 0z Hrr.. then the 2nd storm is trending toward rain Wasn't this already known and expected, that we'd go to rain sometime Wednesday night? Unless you're referring to something else...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 hubba hubba 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: hubba hubba I Don't think it's done 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: hubba hubba WOOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, stormtracker said: I Don't think it's done yeah, that's the 6hr map... aka more than what the HRRR shows in total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's a mauling on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Yeah, it's an incoming NAMing vs 18zWhat?? Everyone said it was south an not wetter west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, stormtracker said: I Don't think it's done Verbatim inch per hour plus rates during the evening as the sun sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Mix line makes it up to Dale City around 10pm - but you gotta smell the sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Ji said: What?? Everyone said it was south an not wetter west Only @SnowenOutThere said it wasn't. he was definitely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Mix line makes it up to Dale City around 10pm - but you gotta smell the sleet... Start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Wasn't this already known and expected, that we'd go to rain sometime Wednesday night? Unless you're referring to something else...? NAM has had the low near Detroit.. Gfs was much furth south. Still some spread, but fwiw the 0z Hrr looked like the 18z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 We got NAMed forsure. Looks juiced up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Mix line makes it up to Dale City around 10pm - but you gotta smell the sleet... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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