Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[EstorilM]

27.9 at my PWS just south of Leesburg, granted I’m in a valley and it’s usually colder. 
 

Still, forecast low was 28 so… temps tonight might help onset precip a lot tomorrow. 

[snowfan]

This would result in some popcorn eating doom scrolling in here.

 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

How's the Hrrr looking?

All the school systems with early dismissal  are going to have egg on their face. 

[WxUSAF]

Solid dusting north of DC for the hrrr

[NorthArlington101]

At least 95% of it comes after dark!

[Buddy1987]

Temp really starting to bottom out. Down to 33/17. Love it!

[Snowman.]

OPM early release

[winter_warlock]

  At 8 40 pm.  Sparrows point MD...

 

[87storms]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Solid dusting north of DC for the hrrr

HRRR decided to over-extrapolate the fact that we have a 1030 surface high right now.  I get it...but I don't like it.

[nj2va]

36.1/19.

[87storms]

Most important Nam runs in the history of 2025 incoming.

[Ji]

Solid dusting north of DC for the hrrr

What a dumb hobby we live

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

At least 95% of it comes after dark!

Relatively speaking that was a “disaster” and DC still gets 3.5”…not bad!

[weatherkyle]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What a dumb hobby we live

Is the HRRR considered a quality model at 18 hours out

[nj2va]

Just now, weatherkyle said:

Is the HRRR considered a quality model

No

(FYP)

[StormyClearweather]

For what it's worth...

*edit correcting HRRR to 2Z

 

[stormtracker]

So on the NAM, its wetter out west. 

[Miss Pixee]

Temps dropping like a rock from a high of 50 earlier today

36/23DP in far SE DC

DC under "severe" area for winter storm warning, orange zone. No corn, no panic. Power to the people.

[Paleocene]

36/20 here near downtown silver spring MD. 

HRRR is a JV model at 18 hours. Ready for my NAMing

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, Paleocene said:

36/20 here near downtown silver spring MD. 

HRRR is a JV model at 18 hours. Ready for my NAMing

So is the NAM. 

[Terpeast]

[Ji]

So on the NAM, its wetter out west. 

We’re almost in its useful range!

[Massanothing]

30/17....temp dropped 8 degrees in the past 2 hours.

[grhqofb5]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

36/20 here near downtown silver spring MD. 

HRRR is a JV model at 18 hours. Ready for my NAMing

When is it not a JV model?  

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So on the NAM, its wetter out west. 

Looking at the 12z NAM im not so sure I'm seeing what you're seeing. The precip field looks further south...

[stormtracker]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Looking at the 12z NAM im not so sure I'm seeing what you're seeing. The precip field looks further south...

Huh?  I said out west, it was wetter.  Which it is?

[Grothar of Herndon]

32/17

[Paleocene]

Just now, grhqofb5 said:

When is it not a JV model?  

IMO it is reasonably accurate in the like 2-8 hour range at showing future radar when a storm is already here/happening. 

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

So is the NAM. 

NAM is a JV model that tells me what I like

JK rain to start tomorrow

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Huh?  I said out west, it was wetter.  Which it is?

You’re good

[NorthArlington101]

Pretty much identical around 18 but concur with wetter out west.

maybe a bit drier north