SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3K is gonna be a hold for DC metro but a slight cutback to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 unless you know for sure----let the run play out 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, LeesburgWx said: lol NAM looks good At work, quick check in on the NAM. 5 minutes ago, it’s OVER. Now, we are right on track lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Ji said: unless you know for sure----let the run play out Quite possibly you're best post ever! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Solution Man said: Some, need to check themselves in to the panic room Yeah I spoke too soon for sure. Great outcome verbatim, but it sucks that every model run that comes out is moving south 10-20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, T. August said: Yeah I spoke too soon for sure. Great outcome verbatim, but it sucks that every model run that comes out is moving south 10-20 miles. Everything will come back 10-20 miles North tonight. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Always fun seeing totals trend lower up to gametime. Worst hobby ever? See you at 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! 8 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, ravensrule said: Everything will come back 10-20 miles North tonight. or maybe just in ground truth at gametime. These systems are uber sensitive to the smallest changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, ravensrule said: Everything will come back 10-20 miles North tonight. I keep holding onto this sentiment because it seems like every time we’ve gotten a storm with little to no blocking setup, like clockwork the r/s line has at least one north jaunt before game time, often to heartbreaking results. Suddenly getting a stubborn storm in that setting when we couldn’t buy that for a while doesn’t sit right with me, but we are getting very close now… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Consider me really interested in what happens Weds night when I'm trying to fly back into DCA. Maybe not so much for the flight in, but the drive up to my house from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! Your decision to relocate further south for the winter continues to look like a power move. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Let’s be clear about the HRRR. There have only been 3 runs that take it to 6z Wednesday and 2 through 12z. The 06z run at 48 hours had 0.11” precip through 48 at DC. The current run has 0.40” through the same period. I should specify I was specifically looking at MD where its DAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 17 minutes ago, Snowman. said: Honestly, the NAM run around DC is still pretty solid and probably more realistic than 12z. I'm worried that was the typical juicy NAM run though, everything else seems to be saying otherwise with the latest suite. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! My expectation was firmly planted at 4" earlier but thanks to you it's now 8+. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It’ll be cool to get a little stroll in tomorrow night. Kind of a weak storm up here for mid february standards but it’s nice to know I won’t have to monitor the correlation coefficient pinger line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, T. August said: Yeah I spoke too soon for sure. Great outcome verbatim, but it sucks that every model run that comes out is moving south 10-20 miles. You should be OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, EstorilM said: I'm worried that was the typical juicy NAM run though, everything else seems to be saying otherwise with the latest suite. The 18z 3km NAM looks healthy and pretty much held serve from 12z which was great to see. It’s definitely the superior NAM model. The 12km was obviously overdone compared to other guidance at 12z so not surprising it came back down to earth a bit but the totals are still solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Smash 11 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 45/26 Full sun and roasting Please clouds hold off until 6am tomorrow morning. Once sunset hits tonight I need this 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Smash Pretty much lines up almost completely with where LWX put up the WSWs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Smash Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Can h57 of the 18z NAM deliver? Probably the best chance at making up for lost snow tomorrow/weds AM. Also, @stormtracker or anyone else, should my file max size be 261kb? Recently, I haven't been able to attach anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, bncho said: I thought the NAM caved to like 2-4"... y'all are overdramatic AF not everyone lives where you do 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 14 minutes ago, IronTy said: My expectation was firmly planted at 4" earlier but thanks to you it's now 8+. I think 5-9” is a good call for your hood. You guys down there have had a hell of a winter for your climo. Enjoy!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, mappy said: Why is 7-9am at the bottom!!?!!! lol maybe they saw that shading at the bottom of the map and thought - let's put that part of the key here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I think 5-9” is a good call for your hood. You guys down there have had a hell of a winter for your climo. Enjoy!! Screw him. We Northerners need some snow. Kidding....... not really. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Can h57 of the 18z NAM deliver? Probably the best chance at making up for lost snow tomorrow/weds AM. Also, @stormtracker or anyone else, should my file max size be 261kb? Recently, I haven't been able to attach anything... Your image storage is full. You will have to delete uploaded media to make space for new ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 So far the last few winters my move from Leesburg to Aldie has not resulted in any lost snow and in fact i may be ahead this year. In case most don't know where Aldie is I'm basically at the far northern tip of where Prince Willian County meets Loudoun...just a bit to the north and right of there in Loudoun County...get on 50 west and drive almost to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 35 minutes ago, Solution Man said: "NAM doesn't look so good.." Can some of you let the damn run finish? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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