Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Hopefully, I remember the old ST posts lol.

Me too, was there with you

[clskinsfan]

18z HRRR gets first flakes out here late morning. 

[Leaking Gut]

Leaking Gut Storm

 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

18z HRRR gets first flakes out here late morning. 

Map or it didn't happen

[clskinsfan]

HRRR is pretty ugly. Glad it is a steaming plie of crap model

[Solution Man]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

HRRR is pretty ugly. Glad it is a steaming plie of crap model

Nevermind the map then

[H2O]

22 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Snow forecast for February 11-12... lots of uncertainties with precip types on the south end and QPF amounts on the north end, and some areas could suffer rate issues during the afternoon. As a result, forecast confidence isn't that great.

Good map. I’m well out of the gray of goddammit and cyan of sadness. Last time I was in The cyan of sadness it turned into goddammit gray. 
 

But sitting well within the light blue of booyah is comforting. 

[GATECH]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Good map. I’m well out of the gray of goddammit and cyan of sadness. Last time I was in The cyan of sadness it turned into goddammit gray. 
 

But sitting well within the light blue of booyah is comforting. 

Maybe next time we can get the promised land of purple, or better yet pandemonium pink…good to have goals!

[clskinsfan]

[nw baltimore wx]

PA border counties have a WWA.

[baltosquid]

HRRR just has dry air kill the early phases of the storm in much of Maryland. If not for that, it may have looked like an uninspiring but not so bad run. Hopefully it’s being too stingy with moisture in the NE reaches of the shield.

[Warm Nose]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

HRRR is pretty ugly. Glad it is a steaming plie of crap model

 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

 

[Interstate]

WWA up on the PA side of the M/D line

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

HRRR is pretty ugly. Glad it is a steaming plie of crap model

It is....but.... 90% of the time lately its been way off because its been over amplified and way too far north at range...so it being south and dry like that...well its not what I would want to see.  

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It is....but.... 90% of the time lately its been way off because its been over amplified and way too far north at range...so it being south and dry like that...well its not what I would want to see.  

Well the 18Z is better than the 12z.

[psuhoffman]

HRRR was the first red flag in that Mar 7 2018 bust because it is almost always over amplified but the evening before when all guidance was showing 4-8" of snow across northeast MD, it starting deamplifying and shifting the snow well northeast...and a few hours later all the 0z guidance came in showing the same thing.  

 

It's generally crap at range and hard to use because you can't tell when its on to something or just on something 

[stormtracker]

We 'bout to really do this?  HRRR?

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not that it matters, but the QPF around DC is 0.45”, which is about the RGEM/ICON/Ukie.  

[RevWarReenactor]

Not to be pessimistic, but we onlt got 2.4 here from the Jan 6th storm. This looks like a weaker of version of that, and in the last 10 years the best bet for this location is take NWS forecast and divide by 2.

I am thinking 1-2 inches. Grassy surfaces only Baltimore/DC will do better. Maybe 3-4 inches there.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

We 'bout to really do this?  HRRR?

It's like the NOGAPS/navgem reverse bias. If you see it amped, that's good because its usually progressive. If the HRRR is progressive and de-amped, shit because it's usually amped. Na mean? 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

HRRR was the first red flag in that Mar 7 2018 bust because it is almost always over amplified but the evening before when all guidance was showing 4-8" of snow across northeast MD, it starting deamplifying and shifting the snow well northeast...and a few hours later all the 0z guidance came in showing the same thing.  

 

It's generally crap at range and hard to use because you can't tell when its on to something or just on something 

Qpf looks sorta like AI's last couple runs to be honest. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

We 'bout to really do this?  HRRR?

lol its way way way down on the list of data I would weight heavily but it's showing the opposite of what I would want to see given it has tended to be way over amplified at range.  I would prefer to see it showing things too far north frankly.  Of course where I am I want things to be north in general.  This is looking like a very similar setup to Jan 6th which is super YUCK to me but I am happy for those of you to my south who will enjoy this one.  

[mappy]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

Not to be pessimistic, but we onlt got 2.4 here from the Jan 6th storm. This looks like a weaker of version of that, and in the last 10 years the best best for this location is take NWS forecast and divide by 2.

I am thinking 1-2 inches. Grassy surfaces only Baltimore/DC will do better. Maybe 3-4 inches there.

Not sure why you think it’s grassy surfaces only. It will be cold enough to stick. It’s just a qpf issue for us further north. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Not to be pessimistic, but we onlt got 2.4 here from the Jan 6th storm. This looks like a weaker of version of that, and in the last 10 years the best bet for this location is take NWS forecast and divide by 2.

I am thinking 1-2 inches. Grassy surfaces only Baltimore/DC will do better. Maybe 3-4 inches there.

This one is not going to be the one to break your streak of bad luck.  Sorry 

[wtkidz]

27 minutes ago, mappy said:

Why is 7-9am at the bottom!!?!!!

To make you ask questions,  success!!!
 

45  and looking forward to our digital storm here in Fredericksburg.  

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

HRRR just has dry air kill the early phases of the storm in much of Maryland. If not for that, it may have looked like an uninspiring but not so bad run. Hopefully it’s being too stingy with moisture in the NE reaches of the shield.

Yea it's ugly for I-70 north. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

lol its way way way down on the list of data I would weight heavily but it's showing the opposite of what I would want to see given it has tended to be way over amplified at range.  I would prefer to see it showing things too far north frankly.  Of course where I am I want things to be north in general.  This is looking like a very similar setup to Jan 6th which is super YUCK to me but I am happy for those of you to my south who will enjoy this one.  

Might be right.  NAM drier out west so far 

[arlwx12]

Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Bedford, and Somerset
231 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Bedford, Fulton, and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.


Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of York, Lancaster, Chambersburg,
Gettysburg, and Carlisle
231 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3
  inches.

* WHERE...Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, Lancaster, and York Counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

[stormtracker]

We're under a warning down these parts

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Might be right.  NAM drier out west so far 

It's just anecdotal but over the years I've noticed something with the HRRR when it doesn't match up with other guidance...when its more amplified/north/wetter than everything else it almost never is right.  When its less amplified or south/dryer...it sometimes is right and the next run of other guidance moves towards it.