michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: You will get upgraded up there in Oakland later this morning with how trends are going. In the past I remember several storms that shouldve been warning and ended up advisory. When I was a kid it meant all the difference in the world. But now that i have access to models, forecast discussions, etc, i honestly dont care what the warning/advisory verbage is. I care about the results lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’m still a hype man myself. Give me a clown map 7 days out and a WSW 3 days out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: In the past I remember several storms that shouldve been warning and ended up advisory. When I was a kid it meant all the difference in the world. But now that i have access to models, forecast discussions, etc, i honestly dont care what the warning/advisory verbage is. I care about the results lol. Several areas west of Michigan are expecting 3-5" are under a WSW. Michigan has 4-7" as a WWA (per guidelines). Like you say the classification has no meaning only the results matter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Lightning said: Several areas west of Michigan are expecting 3-5" are under a WSW. Michigan has 4-7" as a WWA (per guidelines). Like you say the classification has no meaning only the results matter Kind of like some get so excited for (or frustrated for lack of) a Blizzard Warning. Hmmm, a blizzard warning for 50mph winds and 2-4" of snow or a Winter Storm Warning for 8-12" of snow with 30 mph gusts. Which shall I choose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 outside useful range but 12z nam and rgem with sharper troughs and a more north/amped solutions GFS gonna follow with the stronger/north/phased trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 with this one, you don’t want too many improvements at h5, otherwise it turns into a mostly rainer for most.strung out will be beneficial. you could overlap with a several inch lead thump, followed up by a several inch main hit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: outside useful range but 12z nam and rgem with sharper troughs and a more north/amped solutions Feel like this may end up more north since snow pack from current system going to be more north now with snow busting further south today because of dry slot. Could miss out on waa snows with further north track but hoping I won't get all rain with deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GEM has a pretty nice hit for most 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z gfs was step in wrong direction but curious what ensemble will show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 25 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Feel like this may end up more north since snow pack from current system going to be more north now with snow busting further south today because of dry slot. Could miss out on waa snows with further north track but hoping I won't get all rain with deformation band. could def go north, snowpack or lack thereof won't play any role tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 High risk, high reward with this one. That OP run on the GFS dumps on Wisconsin and gets the rain/snow line through here. That followed by single digits could create a glacial snowpack. The lake-effect potential behind this isn’t great but not bad for February. Usually the lake is too cold by now but single digit or low teens temps over a lake in the mid to upper 30’s is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 why not, lets roll with the GFS on this one. 12" total with the WAA and then defo a day later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, madwx said: why not, lets roll with the GFS on this one. 12" total with the WAA and then defo a day later This is your moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GEFS Mean still has a large amount of snow for most of us from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Definitely a little bummed this current system isn't going to amount to much here then possibly could get a rainer from this next system. Not what I was expecting from this pattern. Lots of time for change but my hunch is this will be north. WAA snows might miss north. I'm hoping for some wrap around accumulation at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Of course the Euro is broken lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 37 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Definitely a little bummed this current system isn't going to amount to much here then possibly could get a rainer from this next system. Not what I was expecting from this pattern. Lots of time for change but my hunch is this will be north. WAA snows might miss north. I'm hoping for some wrap around accumulation at least. Hoping the weaker/SE trend of the winter kicks again once more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said: Hoping the weaker/SE trend of the winter kicks again once more. Go away 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Hoping the weaker/SE trend of the winter kicks again once more. Weaker would be really bad for this system's potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Well whatever gets me more snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Of course the Euro is broken lolIt’s down until further notice.Big tech issues. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s down until further notice. Big tech issues. It’s the tariffs 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Nam says what storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 north with waa snow and a dud on the trough/phase is probably the most boring and realistic way this play outs unfortunately 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 hold the line believe in the foot for us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: north with waa snow and a dud on the trough/phase is probably the most boring and realistic way this play outs unfortunately NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: north with waa snow and a dud on the trough/phase is probably the most boring and realistic way this play outs unfortunately Given how this winter has went here probably will happen. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s down until further notice. Big tech issues. They knew there would be no storm, so they destroyed the model to avoid grief. It's a conspiracy!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 way too much NAM talk in this thread. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It’s pretty clear to me that the 18z RGEM is the only model that has a grasp on the Friday/Saturday storm!/s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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