HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 IWX lowered the WWA to 1 to 4 This is one of the saddest busts ever 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWX lowered the WWA to 1 to 4 This is one of the saddest busts ever Truly one of the most difficult storms systems to forecast in recent memory. And the models? Pfft…. All risk, no reward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Going from a foot, to 4-8 to 2-4 so fast is just this winter in a nutshell You might not see an inch. I might not see 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ended up being the case after all...but, it’s actually not the reason. look at the H5 changes over the past few days and you have your answer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 No shortage of snow at Cascade Mountain. Made for a perfect powdery day on the slopes!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well this system was an epic bust and one next week misses way south. So over winter. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 45 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: but, it’s actually not the reason. look at the H5 changes over the past few days and you have your answer. Convection absolutely blocked moisture transport up to the region its also modulated the mass fields causing the surface low to be further east. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Well this system was an epic bust and one next week misses way south. So over winter. Bring on spring. Next week New Orleans special, calling it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It’s okay to be wrong sometimes, no one is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I haven’t really been paying attention but this still seems like a solid 3-5” event for DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 36 hours ago several models were big dog’n Chicago thru Detroit. Now it looks like Chicago won’t see crap and Detroit will get a run of the mill advisory snow. If you can’t trust models 2 days out, wtf is the point? Crazy 1 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: 36 hours ago several models were big dog’n Chicago thru Detroit. Now it looks like Chicago won’t see crap and Detroit will get a run of the mill advisory snow. If you can’t trust models 2 days out, wtf is the point? Crazy Maybe we shouldn’t defund the NWS? 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 33 minutes ago, buckeye said: 36 hours ago several models were big dog’n Chicago thru Detroit. Now it looks like Chicago won’t see crap and Detroit will get a run of the mill advisory snow. If you can’t trust models 2 days out, wtf is the point? Crazy That butterfly in China is really beating those wings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Truly one of the most difficult storms systems to forecast in recent memory. And the models? Pfft…. All risk, no reward. And the Nina??? Pfft…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Jonger said: You might not see an inch. I might not see 1.5 I had a high-end chance of 14, but at least I got my 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This was bad. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Man. This is an all timer rug pull. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'm starting to wonder if I'm even gonna get any snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: but, it’s actually not the reason. look at the H5 changes over the past few days and you have your answer. DTX and IWX both disagree with the bolded per their AFDs, respectfully. Disruption of moisture transport is not be the *ONLY* reason, but it has ended up being *A* reason, unfortunately. The 500mb configuration was never all that favorable for a big dog despite the model runs the day before yesterday, but in the absence of the Tennessee Valley convection, a narrow but quick hitting band of heavy snow would have had a much easier time developing further NW given the instability & forcing that's in place (which is looking increasingly less likely to happen by the hour). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Might grab some snow showers in round two thanks to Lake (Michigan/Illinois/Wisconsin/Indiana) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 DTX has formally dropped the Warning. Now only calling for an additional 2-4" (on top of whatever fell with the WAA snow yesterday). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Despite the doom & gloom, radar trends look decent for a nice thump of snow for the eastern parts of the forum. Hope y'all can cash in and at the very least outperform the lowest threshold of guidance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Best part of event now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Solid DAB so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 First sign of a bust was there was nothing falling for nearly 8 hr last night and I was suppose to have steady light sn. Then I wake up to find no flakes! Dry slotted to hell! A few cm fell overnight but nothing like 10cm with it ramping up to peak by 9am. Currently -SN almost pixie dust... WUN forecast has me at 5-10cm or 6.7 today . Was 23 few days ago. My 25cm til Tues call looking solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Convection absolutely blocked moisture transport up to the region its also modulated the mass fields causing the surface low to be further east.Bingo. It didn’t help that not only was there that powerhouse line through the south, but strong convection along the Ohio River holding down moisture on the back end of this system quite a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2.25” roughly. Solid/legit heavy snow band ripping through. Might end up with 4”. I’ll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 10 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: but, it’s actually not the reason. look at the H5 changes over the past few days and you have your answer. yup, convection robbing moisture is a weenie talking point. ugly trough, ugly look at 85o = trashy nw side H5 look got close for a second there but backed away and then trended progressively worse...was never gonna get it done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This isn’t our first bust and this isn’t going to be our last….just the way it is in the lower lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 32 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Bingo. It didn’t help that not only was there that powerhouse line through the south, but strong convection along the Ohio River holding down moisture on the back end of this system quite a bit Yeah the training shit along the river blocked the deeper moisture from coming north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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