Geoboy645 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 2:07 PM, madwx said: I know I’m getting about 3” tonight but tomorrow could be 8” or 0” and i have no idea which way we’re headed Expand Yeah I am worried about tomorrow sneaking up on people because of the uncertainty. Tonight alone could be an impactful hit because of the timing of max rates during rush hour. But tomorrow is so up in the air this far out which is insane. And if some of the higher solutions verify for us, we'd be talking potentially a foot combined between the two snows on top of the stuff from Wednesday. That's a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z UKMET has taken a step back from the amped runs yesterday. It looks more like the GGEM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 4:45 PM, Powerball said: 12z UKMET has taken a step back from the amped runs yesterday. It looks more like the GGEM now. Expand Suicide run for about everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 4:47 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Suicide run for about everyone. Expand It was still a decent snowstorm for the Detroit area (just not a big dog) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 relying on the ukmet might not have been a winning strategy...in retrospect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Not expecting much on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 4:49 PM, Powerball said: It was still a decent snowstorm for the Detroit area (just not a big dog) Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:02 PM, Cary67 said: Not expecting much on the Euro Expand long duration couple of inches looking more likely...if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 4:45 PM, Powerball said: 12z UKMET has taken a step back from the amped runs yesterday. It looks more like the GGEM now. Expand I think the models are struggling with the track as the low strengthens. usually when you have a deepening low like this it goes more North, like the gfs. Canadian/ukmet kinda shunt it east. Definitly delicate and bust potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:57 PM, Stevo6899 said: Meanwhile DTX has a snow map out already with three to four inches for the whole area through the weekend. Kind of surprised they even threw out totals considering the vast differences in the models. The last storm the GFS was right and had a weaker storm while the euro was wrong and had a stronger storm. Both portraying the opposite this go around. I'd hate to be the nws. Expand Might need to read that again. 3-4" through 8PM Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:12 PM, Lightning said: Might need to read that again. 3-4" through 8PM Saturday. Expand Ah I was so ready to rip on dtx as always, I forgot how to read lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I can see GRR just extending/riding their WWA into round 2. Only upgrading if/when forced to by real-time obs. Safe route to go really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro looking like a strung out disaster for everyone thus far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looks like it will wind up in time for the Michigan folks, but a nonstarter west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 That euro run was trash. Crazy we are so close to event and models all over the place. How did euro do with last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It’s basically looking like 1-2” with the WAA and then probably another inch of mood flakes + lake influence on Saturday. Fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:19 PM, RogueWaves said: I can see GRR just extending/riding their WWA into round 2. Only upgrading if/when forced to by real-time obs. Safe route to go really Expand I agree this is how it should be done too. The 500 mb Vorticity is not closing off. If it did than the strength of this system would be relatively more of a slam dunk!! This will be a lot more now casting event as strength and orientation of the Vorticities are actualized coming out of the Rockies into the MW. I think the more traditional closed off systems are a bit easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Putting all my eggs in the lake-effect basket Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z Euro looking good for Toronto. Low isn't as amped up as the GFS/UKIE/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Not a single 6z EPS member was 'amped' for outside of MI. The number of 'amped' GEFS members are becoming less as of 12z. If you get my jive on the overall look of things... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:38 PM, Lightning said: I agree this is how it should be done too. The 500 mb Vorticity is not closing off. If it did than the strength of this system would be relatively more of a slam dunk!! This will be a lot more now casting event as strength and orientation of the Vorticities are actualized coming out of the Rockies into the MW. I think the more traditional closed off systems are a bit easier. Expand As much as I want the NAM and other SR models that amp this to the NW to be right, it still feels tenuous at best NW of Saginaw Bay line where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:42 PM, sbnwx85 said: Putting all my eggs in the lake-effect basket Sunday. Expand From your area (Roughly) up into MI-crew territory (And the Ontario folks) definitely are fully in the game still. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:52 PM, Chicago Storm said: From your area (Roughly) up into MI-crew territory (And the Ontario folks) definitely are fully in the game still. Expand I know. I should know better than to doomcast. I got my hopes for a big dog from last storm and am still a little bitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:19 PM, RogueWaves said: I can see GRR just extending/riding their WWA into round 2. Only upgrading if/when forced to by real-time obs. Safe route to go really Expand GRR has an impeccable timeline with amounts posted. Made me laugh but I feel it was the best move. 4-14”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:55 PM, sbnwx85 said: I know. I should know better than to doomcast. I got my hopes for a big dog from last storm and am still a little bitter. Expand We're all dog hunters at heart. Josh and the deep winter-ites are good with the nickel and dimers, but for most here, they want quality events. Personally, I'd prefer summer year-round, but do have a soft spot for chasing dogs in the winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:50 PM, RogueWaves said: As much as I want the NAM and other SR models that amp this to the NW to be right, it still feels tenuous at best NW of Saginaw Bay line where I'm at. Expand WAA might be fun tomorrow. I like the set up of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:11 PM, Lightning said: WAA might be fun tomorrow. I like the set up of this one. Expand Euro and Ukie are crap for that tho.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 On 2/13/2025 at 12:47 PM, A-L-E-K said: going 4 storm total for the combined event imby Expand call looking decent, waa feels good for 2-3 and should manage to find another 1 or 2 somewhere shame about the swing and a miss on another potential event in what has been a rough winter for major synoptic snow storms in the region, when it's not your year, it's not your year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:17 PM, A-L-E-K said: call looking decent, waa feels good for 2-3 and should manage to find another 1 or 2 somewhere shame about the swing and a miss on another potential event in what has been a rough winter for major synoptic snow storms in the region, when it's not your year, it's not your year Expand The Nino rocked it up here in (last yr) Jan. Back-2-back majors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:01 PM, Chicago Storm said: We're all dog hunters at heart. Josh and the deep winter-ites are good with the nickel and dimers, but for most here, they want quality events. Personally, I'd prefer summer year-round, but do have a soft spot for chasing dogs in the winter. Expand Definitely in the wrong state then. Might need to join @Powerball for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now