Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Stebo said: There is going to be a lot more ice than the nam is showing if it's running into as cold of atmosphere that should be in place. Also too the low looks too far north in relation to the 500mb maps. Lastly Nam at this range cut last night's storm through the state only to be spectacularly wrong. Took the words right out of my mouth, but still concerned lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Also... and I know this is taking the NAM verbatim which is dumb... there would be some legit blizzard conditions as the low pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 If anything close to the Nam happened, there would be drifts to the tops of houses around here with the amount of snow already on the ground. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I need that NAM run about 25 miles southwest. Splits my county in half between 9" of snow to the north and 3" to the south. No. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: No. Fair point. I'll drive 25 miles north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Me seeing the NAM, ready to be hurt again. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, roardog said: If anything close to the Nam happened, there would be drifts to the tops of houses around here with the amount of snow already on the ground. lol I wanna see some of that! APX with a graphic for 6+ but not mentioning this "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I feel better about this one than I have in awhile as it is trending better for mby as it gets closer. Seems like that has absolutely not been the case the past few years. 3km NAM a solid hit for N IL too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 ICON east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 you can't have a better track, and evolution than the 0z rgem if your in metro detroit 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Toledo to Detroit special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Klot not biting yet...great write up Saturday through Thursday: In the wake of the lead shortwave trough and slug of warm air advection driven precipitation Friday night, attention will turn to the large positively tilted upper trough moving across the region Saturday and Saturday night. The 12z operational ECMWF and GFS both depict precipitation breaking out somewhere in the region Saturday afternoon and evening near the northern terminus of the vort max associated with this trough. While the "look" of the QPF in the models suggests the presence of a developing TROWAL-driven deformation zone, that doesn`t seem to be the case with still an open wave at 700mb and a very baggy, weak closed low at 850mb. A deeper dive into what is driving this precipitation points toward some progressive mid- level frontogenesis, with some pretty substantial differences among the models and their respective ensembles regarding the placement of this QPF with non-trivial number of EPS and GFS ensemble members dry along with the 12z NAM. ECMWF and GFS both show a brief window of favorable upper jet support as 300mb jet streak on the leeward side of the trough strengths, but then our area quickly ends up in the convergent left entrance region of the jet. Hard to rule out some mesoscale driven banded beefier precipitation developing associated with the corresponding mid-level front. The GFS does show some rather strong transient 700-500mb frontogenesis over the region Saturday afternoon and evening. The operational ECMWF would suggest a flaring up of f-gen driven precipitation Saturday evening, which would stand a better chance to be snow, which could theoretically prove to be a better chance at some accumulations as temps would colder by then. The other realistic scenario for Saturday into Saturday evening would be very little measurable precipitation with just some drizzle and/or freezing drizzle. Given the exceedingly low confidence, opted to stick with straight NBM output which has snow and rain across the area Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The categorical (>80%) NBM pops are higher than what I would have gone with, but confidence is lacking to lower them, particularly with so many models showing precipitation. By late Saturday night into Sunday morning, polar front jet is progged to begin phasing with the subtropical jet with a healthy northern stream shortwave digging into the backside of this trough. Steepening low-level lapse rates in the strengthening cold air advection regime along with this approaching trough could set the stage for some snow showers late Saturday night into Sunday, mainly the first half of the day. - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Me seeing the NAM, ready to be hurt again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS says game time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: GFS says game time Widespread foot plus 10:1. I'd imagine with a low strenghthening like that, would produce better ratios and a kuchera map would be more accurate than with this previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gonna need winter storm watches in the morning probably 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GEM stepin’ too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I could kiss you all Not even cause of the storm or anything I would just surmise that you're all cuties soo 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 i love you all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 RAP (I know) is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GEFS mean precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: GEM stepin’ too. Speculation on how far NW this could step? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 26 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Gonna need winter storm watches in the morning probably A run for the ages, I'd be buried under 24"! How much is LES curious but the contour doesn't make sense for it. Can this be a blizzard for SON - I want to experience one again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 00z GEFS is a thing of beauty. Sub 990 near Cleveland at 12z Sunday. Nearly Blizzard criteria (35mph gusts for at least 3 hours & 1/4 Visability). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Can't wait to see how far off from reality these outputs end up being (again). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: I need that NAM run about 25 miles southwest. Splits my county in half between 9" of snow to the north and 3" to the south. Watch it get so amped and screw us. Ha. I would give my right testicle for 0z nam to verify. Definitely steps in right direction. Hoping it continues on models tomorrow. But still feel jackpot may be I80 north. Peoria has nearly a 13in deficit. I need this. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro is about 5 to 6 millibars weaker with the surface low compared to the GFS. Takes about the same path though. The good news: that surface low on the 00z Euro is stronger than on the 12z Euro. Overall, it’s a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Speculation on how far NW this could step? With this trending evolution, we're probably looking at a Des Moines-Dubuque-Madison-Sheboygan-N/L Michigan northern max, for the heart of a potential snowfall axis. The bigger concern would probably be an added trend to this new evolution, which would result in SE shifts or a slower evolution until late (See the 0z UKMET). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Euro is about 5 to 6 millibars weaker with the surface low compared to the GFS. Takes about the same path though. The good news: that surface low on the 00z Euro is stronger than on the 12z Euro. Overall, it’s a step in the right direction. Euro wanting to always crush dreams. It couldn't play nice and jump on board. 0z very encouraging but I'm still remaining highly skeptical. Hopefully models continue this tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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