Stebo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:11 PM, A-L-E-K said: yup, convection robbing moisture is a weenie talking point. ugly trough, ugly look at 85o = trashy nw side H5 look got close for a second there but backed away and then trended progressively worse...was never gonna get it done Expand It wasn't just robbing the moisture the convection modulated the mass fields such that the trough never matured properly and the surface low was pulled east. This was never given a chance to properly have the WCB cross into the cold sector because it got deflected east along the river with all the training storms there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This last batch is pretty nice. I think my area is up to about 2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Spot on Stebo! The amount of convection as a concern was something I mentioned early in this thread; I should have listened myself . Storm total: 1.5" with 1/10" ice coating for Saturday. 3.5" last night into this morning. So a 5" total. Currently have 10-11" on the ground would have been more but that misty ice period yesterday compacted the snow that was already on the ground. Looks awesome and wintery outside. Ready for a cold week ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Although both this and the last storm fell short (in some cases well short) of expectations overall, I'm sure the snowcover fans are happy. Congrats again to them! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:23 AM, SchaumburgStormer said: Man. This is an all timer rug pull. Expand Feels like it’s been 2-3 straight winter seasons of them overall. Storm on models for multiple days, showing 6+ as late as 24hrs before the event, and then only ends up being a 1-2 inch pixie duster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 4:42 PM, mimillman said: I think with this DTX will be on target for normal snowfall or within a few inches departure? Expand On 2/15/2025 at 4:45 PM, Powerball said: The jury is still out there. WAA snows have already underperformed, and model trends aren't looking good for the "main" show tonight/tomorrow. Prior to this system, they were still at a 11-12" departure. Expand 36-hour storm total at DTW was 3.4" as of 7am. Probably not final though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Classic lake effect squall in LaPorte County slowly moving east. It should get here around 2:00 or 3:00. Otherwise sunny skies on either side of the squall. 2”-3” is my expectation once it gets here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5.8” total. 2 day storm about 10-11” otg. this is a house in my in-laws neighborhood a seven-year-old woman she does such a beautiful job shoveling refuses to use a snowblower 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2.5" here 3.5" total for both days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:37 PM, Stebo said: It wasn't just robbing the moisture the convection modulated the mass fields such that the trough never matured properly and the surface low was pulled east. This was never given a chance to properly have the WCB cross into the cold sector because it got deflected east along the river with all the training storms there. Expand the tail doesn't wag the dog, it's all downstream of the ugly h5 look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:48 PM, A-L-E-K said: the tail doesn't wag the dog, it's all downstream of the ugly h5 look Expand It's a combo of both. The convection screwed up the trough orientation and pulled the low east, which didn't allow for the phasing with the trailing vort. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:38 PM, Powerball said: 36-hour storm total at DTW was 3.4" as of 7am. Probably not final though. Expand 4.6" was the final 36-hour total at DTW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 earlier this week the "pattern" had changed to a more active one and we were looking at 3 possible snowstorms (Thursday, this weekend and mid week) and even pro mets were talking about the high possibility of 10+ inches here in Chicago from the first 2 storms, we all know it didnt happen for a variety of reasons and the upcoming 3rd snow storm will hit our friends in Kansas and Missouri (again). Have you noticed that we NEVER get a good bust in our area (there is no way the mid week KS/MO storm moves north because of a 1050 high pressure). So basically our 7 days of winter (snow) are done and now we can look forward to dry weather and below zero wind chills at night till it warms up and rains in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:39 PM, ILSNOW said: earlier this week the "pattern" had changed to a more active one and we were looking at 3 possible snowstorms (Thursday, this weekend and mid week) and even pro mets were talking about the high possibility of 10+ inches here in Chicago from the first 2 storms, we all know it didnt happen for a variety of reasons and the upcoming 3rd snow storm will hit our friends in Kansas and Missouri (again). Have you noticed that we NEVER get a good bust in our area (there is no way the mid week KS/MO storm moves north because of a 1050 high pressure). So basically our 7 days of winter (snow) are done and now we can look forward to dry weather and below zero wind chills at night till it warms up and rains in early March. Expand I'm going to play a bit of interference here and just point out in all fairness, this subforum did see plenty of "good busts" during the unusually snowy & active 2005 - 2015 period (although granted, not everyone got a "Big Dog"). Based on past history, these strings good vs. not-so good winters happen in waves and y'all just so happen to be in a wave of not-so-good winters that will eventually pass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:39 PM, ILSNOW said: earlier this week the "pattern" had changed to a more active one and we were looking at 3 possible snowstorms (Thursday, this weekend and mid week) and even pro mets were talking about the high possibility of 10+ inches here in Chicago from the first 2 storms, we all know it didnt happen for a variety of reasons and the upcoming 3rd snow storm will hit our friends in Kansas and Missouri (again). Have you noticed that we NEVER get a good bust in our area (there is no way the mid week KS/MO storm moves north because of a 1050 high pressure). So basically our 7 days of winter (snow) are done and now we can look forward to dry weather and below zero wind chills at night till it warms up and rains in early March. Expand I scored about 70% of the 23" the 1/31 Euro snowfall map was showing here through the 15th. Considering that was Kuchera ratios, I don't hate my result. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:57 PM, Powerball said: I'm going to play a bit of interference here and just point out in all fairness, this subforum did see plenty of "good busts" during the unusually snowy & active 2005 - 2015 period (although granted, not everyone got a "Big Dog"). Based on past history, these strings good vs. not-so good winters happen in waves and y'all just so happen to be in a wave of not-so-good winters that will eventually pass.That stretch is what causes so much of the bellyaching we see on here. Since 2005 Toledo, OH has seen the #1, 3 & 5th snowiest Januaries and the #1, 2, 4, 5, 6 & 9th snowiest Februaries on record. If you like snow, you’ve had an all time run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 3:13 AM, Stebo said: Convection absolutely blocked moisture transport up to the region its also modulated the mass fields causing the surface low to be further east. Expand convection most definitely did not block moisture transport, as that heavy convection was modeled for days, even on guidance showing a heavier hit for MI. again, the difference came aloft, with an even jankier H5 look...which is also why the surface low kept trending east. let's take a look at the NAM, which was one of the last to let go of a snowier solution... pretty clear cut look on why things trended southeast and weaker. obviously if you trend H5 jankier, the associated surface low in turn ends up weaker/southeast, and moisture transport/850 low shunted east. also, note on the second image of the heavy convection modeled days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:46 PM, Stebo said: 2.5" here 3.5" total for both days. Expand About the same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:11 PM, A-L-E-K said: yup, convection robbing moisture is a weenie talking point. ugly trough, ugly look at 85o = trashy nw side H5 look got close for a second there but backed away and then trended progressively worse...was never gonna get it done Expand yep. i get that there 'needs' to be a cop-out or fail-point. however, it isn't convective issues, it very clearly was a trend towards an even more janky H5 evolution...which carries elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:01 PM, RogueWaves said: I scored about 70% of the 23" the 1/31 Euro snowfall map was showing here through the 15th. Considering that was Kuchera ratios, I don't hate my result. Expand Very true and how most of us should look at it. Atleast we all have some snow on the ground, finally. And like Powerball said, we’re just stuck in the crappy couple year period… it’ll all come full circle. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:18 PM, Chicago Storm said: yep. i get that there 'needs' to be a cop-out or fail-point. however, it isn't convective issues, it very clearly was a trend towards an even more janky H5 evolution...which carries elsewhere. Expand Tomato or tomato. Convective blocking downstream played part in moisture transport issues further north which ultimately changed the way the trough was evolving. Not saying your wrong, just saying it wasn’t just a janky h5 evolution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:18 PM, Chicago Storm said: yep. i get that there 'needs' to be a cop-out or fail-point. however, it isn't convective issues, it very clearly was a trend towards an even more janky H5 evolution...which carries elsewhere. Expand The janky evolution was because of the convection and pulling the low east dude. It didn't allow for the phasing and west-east boundary that had all the convection didn't allow for deeper moisture here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 In the end there is no point litigating why it sucked. It sucked for here and didn't to the northeast of here where the moisture was better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well at least most of us got a few inches to cover and make it look like winter for this brutal latter half of Feb coming up. I cannot stand arctic tundra crap and snow cover, for whatever reason in my little circus of a mind, makes the frigid temps feel not so frigid. While we exit this piss ant pattern, March is Big Dog season in my part 'o the hills so bring it! lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 About 3" yesterday with the initial wave here. About 7" today so far with the main storm. A bit underperforming due to reasons aforementioned. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:52 PM, Snowstorms said: About 3" yesterday with the initial wave here. About 7" today so far with the main storm. A bit underperforming due to reasons aforementioned. Expand 2" yesterday and 5" so far today (should get another 1" next few hours) Saw a few hours of heavy sleet as well this morning. Should end up with a 2 day total of 8" which is the low end of the 8-14" forecasted but still awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:58 PM, mississaugasnow said: 2" yesterday and 5" so far today (should get another 1" next few hours) Saw a few hours of heavy sleet as well this morning. Should end up with a 2 day total of 8" which is the low end of the 8-14" forecasted but still awesome Expand Not bad, won't complain. YYZ will likely finish with a 2 day total of 25cm (10"). Certainly not the 30-45cm (12-18") the models had for us the other day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:26 PM, Stebo said: The janky evolution was because of the convection and pulling the low east dude. It didn't allow for the phasing and west-east boundary that had all the convection didn't allow for deeper moisture here. you do you, guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:48 PM, A-L-E-K said: the tail doesn't wag the dog, it's all downstream of the ugly h5 look Expand The GFS had this scenario a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The lake effect portion of this sucks too. It’s barely sticking. About 0.5” from this system as a whole. It’s about this time of year I’m ready for Spring and storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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