2/14-2/15 Potential Major Winter Storm

[Stebo]

24 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

yup, convection robbing moisture is a weenie talking point.

ugly trough, ugly look at 85o = trashy nw side

H5 look got close for a second there but backed away and then trended progressively worse...was never gonna get it done

It wasn't just robbing the moisture the convection modulated the mass fields such that the trough never matured properly and the surface low was pulled east. This was never given a chance to properly have the WCB cross into the cold sector because it got deflected east along the river with all the training storms there.

[Chinook]

This last batch is pretty nice. I think my area is up to about 2"

[Lightning]

Spot on Stebo!   The amount of convection as a concern was something I mentioned early in this thread; I should have listened myself .

 

Storm total: 1.5" with 1/10" ice coating for Saturday.  3.5" last night into this morning.  So a 5" total.  Currently have 10-11" on the ground would have been more but that misty ice period yesterday compacted the snow that was already on the ground. 

Looks awesome and wintery outside. 

Ready for a cold week ahead. 

[Powerball]

Although both this and the last storm fell short (in some cases well short) of expectations overall, I'm sure the snowcover fans are happy.

Congrats again to them!

[Sciascia]

9 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Man. This is an all timer rug pull. 

Feels like it’s been 2-3 straight winter seasons of them overall. Storm on models for multiple days, showing 6+ as late as 24hrs before the event, and then only ends up being a 1-2 inch pixie duster.

[Powerball]

23 hours ago, mimillman said:

I think with this DTX will be on target for normal snowfall or within a few inches departure?

 

23 hours ago, Powerball said:

The jury is still out there.

WAA snows have already underperformed, and model trends aren't looking good for the "main" show tonight/tomorrow.

Prior to this system, they were still at a 11-12" departure.

36-hour storm total at DTW was 3.4" as of 7am.

Probably not final though.

[sbnwx85]

Classic lake effect squall in LaPorte County slowly moving east. It should get here around 2:00 or 3:00. Otherwise sunny skies on either side of the squall. 2”-3” is my expectation once it gets here. 

[dmc76]

5.8” total. 2 day storm 

about 10-11” otg. 
 

this is a house in my in-laws neighborhood a seven-year-old woman she does such a beautiful job shoveling refuses to use a snowblower
 

 

 

[Stebo]

2.5" here 3.5" total for both days.

[A-L-E-K]

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

It wasn't just robbing the moisture the convection modulated the mass fields such that the trough never matured properly and the surface low was pulled east. This was never given a chance to properly have the WCB cross into the cold sector because it got deflected east along the river with all the training storms there.

the tail doesn't wag the dog, it's all downstream of the ugly h5 look

[Stebo]

39 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

the tail doesn't wag the dog, it's all downstream of the ugly h5 look

It's a combo of both. The convection screwed up the trough orientation and pulled the low east, which didn't allow for the phasing with the trailing vort.

[Powerball]

59 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

36-hour storm total at DTW was 3.4" as of 7am.

Probably not final though.

4.6" was the final 36-hour total at DTW.

[ILSNOW]

earlier this week the "pattern" had changed to a more active one and we were looking at 3 possible snowstorms (Thursday, this weekend and mid week) and even pro mets were talking about the high possibility of 10+ inches here in Chicago from the first 2 storms, we all know it didnt happen for a variety of reasons and the upcoming 3rd snow storm will hit our friends in Kansas and Missouri  (again).  Have you noticed that we NEVER get a good bust in our area (there is no way the mid week KS/MO storm moves north because of a 1050 high pressure).

So basically our 7 days of winter (snow) are done and now we can look forward to dry weather and below zero wind chills at night till it warms up and rains in early March.

 

[Powerball]

18 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

earlier this week the "pattern" had changed to a more active one and we were looking at 3 possible snowstorms (Thursday, this weekend and mid week) and even pro mets were talking about the high possibility of 10+ inches here in Chicago from the first 2 storms, we all know it didnt happen for a variety of reasons and the upcoming 3rd snow storm will hit our friends in Kansas and Missouri  (again).  Have you noticed that we NEVER get a good bust in our area (there is no way the mid week KS/MO storm moves north because of a 1050 high pressure).

So basically our 7 days of winter (snow) are done and now we can look forward to dry weather and below zero wind chills at night till it warms up and rains in early March.

 

I'm going to play a bit of interference here and just point out in all fairness, this subforum did see plenty of "good busts" during the unusually snowy & active 2005 - 2015 period (although granted, not everyone got a "Big Dog").

Based on past history, these strings good vs. not-so good winters happen in waves and y'all just so happen to be in a wave of not-so-good winters that will eventually pass.

[RogueWaves]

22 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

earlier this week the "pattern" had changed to a more active one and we were looking at 3 possible snowstorms (Thursday, this weekend and mid week) and even pro mets were talking about the high possibility of 10+ inches here in Chicago from the first 2 storms, we all know it didnt happen for a variety of reasons and the upcoming 3rd snow storm will hit our friends in Kansas and Missouri  (again).  Have you noticed that we NEVER get a good bust in our area (there is no way the mid week KS/MO storm moves north because of a 1050 high pressure).

So basically our 7 days of winter (snow) are done and now we can look forward to dry weather and below zero wind chills at night till it warms up and rains in early March.

 

I scored about 70% of the 23" the 1/31 Euro snowfall map was showing here through the 15th. Considering that was Kuchera ratios, I don't hate my result.

[nwohweather]

I'm going to play a bit of interference here and just point out in all fairness, this subforum did see plenty of "good busts" during the unusually snowy & active 2005 - 2015 period (although granted, not everyone got a "Big Dog").
Based on past history, these strings good vs. not-so good winters happen in waves and y'all just so happen to be in a wave of not-so-good winters that will eventually pass.

That stretch is what causes so much of the bellyaching we see on here. Since 2005 Toledo, OH has seen the #1, 3 & 5th snowiest Januaries and the #1, 2, 4, 5, 6 & 9th snowiest Februaries on record. If you like snow, you’ve had an all time run

[Chicago Storm]

14 hours ago, Stebo said:

Convection absolutely blocked moisture transport up to the region its also modulated the mass fields causing the surface low to be further east.

convection most definitely did not block moisture transport, as that heavy convection was modeled for days, even on guidance showing a heavier hit for MI.

again, the difference came aloft, with an even jankier H5 look...which is also why the surface low kept trending east.

let's take a look at the NAM, which was one of the last to let go of a snowier solution... pretty clear cut look on why things trended southeast and weaker. obviously if you trend H5 jankier, the associated surface low in turn ends up weaker/southeast, and moisture transport/850 low shunted east. also, note on the second image of the heavy convection modeled days ago.

[Harry Perry]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

2.5" here 3.5" total for both days.

About the same here. 

[Chicago Storm]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

yup, convection robbing moisture is a weenie talking point.

ugly trough, ugly look at 85o = trashy nw side

H5 look got close for a second there but backed away and then trended progressively worse...was never gonna get it done

yep.

i get that there 'needs' to be a cop-out or fail-point.

however, it isn't convective issues, it very clearly was a trend towards an even more janky H5 evolution...which carries elsewhere.

[Harry Perry]

14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I scored about 70% of the 23" the 1/31 Euro snowfall map was showing here through the 15th. Considering that was Kuchera ratios, I don't hate my result.

Very true and how most of us should look at it. Atleast we all have some snow on the ground, finally. And like Powerball said, we’re just stuck in the crappy couple year period… it’ll all come full circle.

.

[Harry Perry]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

yep.

i get that there 'needs' to be a cop-out or fail-point.

however, it isn't convective issues, it very clearly was a trend towards an even more janky H5 evolution...which carries elsewhere.

Tomato or tomato.
 

Convective blocking downstream played part in moisture transport issues further north which ultimately changed the way the trough was evolving. Not saying your wrong, just saying it wasn’t just a janky h5 evolution. 

[Stebo]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

yep.

i get that there 'needs' to be a cop-out or fail-point.

however, it isn't convective issues, it very clearly was a trend towards an even more janky H5 evolution...which carries elsewhere.

The janky evolution was because of the convection and pulling the low east dude. It didn't allow for the phasing and west-east boundary that had all the convection didn't allow for deeper moisture here. 

[Stebo]

In the end there is no point litigating why it sucked. It sucked for here and didn't to the northeast of here where the moisture was better.

[Jackstraw]

Well at least most of us got a few inches to cover and make it look like winter for this brutal latter half of Feb coming up. I cannot stand arctic tundra crap and snow cover, for whatever reason in my little circus of a mind, makes the frigid temps feel not so frigid. While we exit this piss ant pattern, March is Big Dog season in my part 'o the hills so bring it! lol 

[Snowstorms]

About 3" yesterday with the initial wave here. 

About 7" today so far with the main storm. A bit underperforming due to reasons aforementioned. 

[mississaugasnow]

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

About 3" yesterday with the initial wave here. 

About 7" today so far with the main storm. A bit underperforming due to reasons aforementioned. 

2" yesterday and 5" so far today (should get another 1" next few hours) Saw a few hours of heavy sleet as well this morning. 

Should end up with a 2 day total of 8" which is the low end of the 8-14" forecasted but still awesome 

[Snowstorms]

13 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

2" yesterday and 5" so far today (should get another 1" next few hours) Saw a few hours of heavy sleet as well this morning. 

Should end up with a 2 day total of 8" which is the low end of the 8-14" forecasted but still awesome 

Not bad, won't complain. YYZ will likely finish with a 2 day total of 25cm (10"). 

Certainly not the 30-45cm (12-18") the models had for us the other day. 

[Chicago Storm]

The janky evolution was because of the convection and pulling the low east dude. It didn't allow for the phasing and west-east boundary that had all the convection didn't allow for deeper moisture here. 

you do you, guy.

[Snowstorms]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

the tail doesn't wag the dog, it's all downstream of the ugly h5 look

The GFS had this scenario a few days ago. 

[sbnwx85]

The lake effect portion of this sucks too. It’s barely sticking. About 0.5” from this system as a whole. It’s about this time of year I’m ready for Spring and storms.