RogueWaves Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 5:32 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: This looked like something really special for DTW for a few runs, shame it crashed back down Expand Dusted out. Called yesterday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:42 PM, Stevo6899 said: Fixed**. Did the storm already happen? I don't get all the bust talk. The waa/front end was never gonna be anything great and main show to still come. Definitly some bust potential later though. I sense some enjoyment on your part on the potential of a bust over here. Perhaps I'm wrong but I never understood why certain illinois/chicago peeps always rooting against others snow chances. Expand Hahahaha, I have less than 9” on the season. You will get more than my season total before Monday. Chill out. A few runs showed a once a decade or more type blizzard. That is not what is going to happen. In fact I was rooting for your big dog. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 7:57 PM, RogueWaves said: Dusted out. Called yesterday Expand The 18z HRRR may have been too dry, but the trend can't be denied. Even the 18z NAM came in notably drier. That said, the Detroit area still looks good for 3-6" total. To be fair, that's about what was expected all along before the really amped up runs reared their ugly heads. The big difference is much of the snow will come from the deformation axis and not WAA like originally expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 7:57 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Hahahaha, I have less than 9” on the season. You will get more than my season total before Monday. Chill out. A few runs showed a once a decade or more type blizzard. That is not what is going to happen. In fact I was rooting for your big dog. Expand He is in Florida so idk why he even cares. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 8:08 PM, Powerball said: The 18z HRRR may have been too dry, but the trend can't be denied. Even the 18z NAM came in notably drier. That said, the Detroit area still looks good for 3-6" total. To be fair, that's about what was expected all along before the really amped up runs reared their ugly heads. The big difference is much of the snow will come from the deformation axis and not WAA like originally expected. Expand NW Trend's the new false flag mode. In the end, a pedestrian SEMI storm - yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 8:10 PM, Stebo said: He is in Florida so idk why he even cares. Expand If I moved to Florida, I would probably still briefly look at the situation if Michigan had a possibility of something interesting but other than that, I wouldn't care and would go about my day. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Winter storm warning kicking in with 5-7 still. I’ll take it honestly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 8:22 PM, SolidIcewx said: Winter storm warning kicking in with 5-7 still. I’ll take it honestly Expand Only for the lakeshore counties. Everyone else, it's a WWA for 3-6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 8:24 PM, Powerball said: Only for the lakeshore counties. Everyone else, it's a WWA for 3-6". Expand WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph on Sunday, which may lead to blowing and drifting of snow. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Macomb, St. Clair, Sanilac, and Huron County. Monroe and Wayne are included even though I think of lakeshore and the ones bordering Huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:42 PM, Stevo6899 said: Fixed**. Did the storm already happen? I don't get all the bust talk. The waa/front end was never gonna be anything great and main show to still come. Definitly some bust potential later though. I sense some enjoyment on your part on the potential of a bust over here. Perhaps I'm wrong but I never understood why certain illinois/chicago peeps always rooting against others snow chances.and you say i’m the asshole… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 To be fair, the hostility is acceptable given the circumstances. Two (three?) storm systems with northern/southern stream energy in the neighborhood, all within a week… before more suppression, and it all went to hell at the last minute to boot. Plenty to be irritated about, but what can you do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Some people need to find more hobbies. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We got 1.6" with round one. It's very heavy with mist and drizzle afterward. Snowpack is now a very heavy 4-5". DTX going warning for far eastern counties tonight and tmrw for 5-7". Had someone watching me when I was at the park earlier... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 8:08 PM, Powerball said: The 18z HRRR may have been too dry, but the trend can't be denied. Even the 18z NAM came in notably drier. That said, the Detroit area still looks good for 3-6" total. To be fair, that's about what was expected all along before the really amped up runs reared their ugly heads. The big difference is much of the snow will come from the deformation axis and not WAA like originally expected. Expand 5-7" for eastern counties. This is on top of a solid snowpack and big snowbanks already around. For all the talk of what a shitty winter it's been for many, it's gonna look pretty damn deep winter here. I'm actually going to the UP mon-thu so my week will be full of snow lol. Lessened qpf aside, one thing I like is that deformation zones often can overperform and have high ratios. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 9:06 PM, Harry Perry said: To be fair, the hostility is acceptable given the circumstances. Two (three?) storm systems with northern/southern stream energy in the neighborhood, all within a week… before more suppression, and it all went to hell at the last minute to boot. Plenty to be irritated about, but what can you do. Expand Nah, hostility shouldn't be tolerated on weather boards. Pissed because it didn't pan out? Sure. Hell, disappointments my middle name when it comes to snow lol. But hostility because someone else got the flakes, nah. I'm always happy for them, begrudgingly lol 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 9:23 PM, Jackstraw said: Nah, hostility shouldn't be tolerated on weather boards. Pissed because it didn't pan out? Sure. Hell, disappointments my middle name when it comes to snow lol. But hostility because someone else got the flakes, nah. I'm always happy for them, begrudgingly lol Expand And the thing about it is the post in question was taken out of context by the person who overreacted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 9:27 PM, Powerball said: And the thing about it is the post in question was taken out of context by the person who overreacted. Expand You'd think we were in that forum over there... to the east... where all that chowders at lmao. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 9:30 PM, Jackstraw said: You'd think we were in that forum over there... to the east... where all that chowders at lmao. Expand 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Intereting afternoon discussion from DTX... Snowfall accumulations with this event present more uncertainty than usual less than 12 hours out from the event start, mainly due to a large area of convection over the Tennessee Valley. This creates more opportunity for this event to fall within the tails of the distribution, in other words there is bust potential on both ends. The drier outcome comes from the disruption to moisture transport that could happen with the Tennessee Valley convection. Suspect the deterministic models are latching on to this scenario as there has been a notable trend to the southeast and a drying trend that brings most 10:1 model snow accumulations in below warning criteria as model QPF falls below a half inch. This would present a lower end 2- 4 inch scenario of broad light snowfall. On the other hand, the presence of the mid-level circulation for a 6-9 hour period and glancing period of elevated instability could very well overachieve into a narrow snow band should moisture availability be sufficient. In typical mesoscale fashion, this scenario does not show up well in the guidance, but does afford a higher-end 8+ inch scenario invof metro Detroit where the warning is in effect. It is a difficult task to capture all possible outcomes within a single deterministic forecast or headline, but nonetheless opted for an advisory across most of the area for 3-6 inches and a smaller warning footprint for 5-7 inches across the eastern counties of the cwa given the SE shift in model guidance and potential lake enhancement. Some maneuverability to the headlines is possible throughout this event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 looks like we're done for the event. 4.0" yesterday, and 0.9" this morning. we'll get through this cold and then looking forward to more mild conditions starting a week from now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Live look at this storm, and the season as a whole 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Thinking the defo band misses to my southeast. Lake effect should be decent tomorrow unless the wind tears apart the flakes. Current IWX forecast of 2”-4” looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/14/2025 at 3:57 PM, Harry Perry said: Severe weather down south robbing moisture transport north. Expand On 2/14/2025 at 4:00 PM, Chicago Storm said: This is one of the most overused statements in the winter, and is not the case in this instance. Expand Ended up being the case after all... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 9:35 PM, MidwestChaser said: Expand Lobsta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 8:15 PM, roardog said: If I moved to Florida, I would probably still briefly look at the situation if Michigan had a possibility of something interesting but other than that, I wouldn't care and would go about my day. lol Expand If I moved to Florida my focus would be thunderstorms. When I wanted snow I would be going to places like this: https://x.com/Superchri90/status/1887125401513726218?t=8MmNItjtgSBpaZcHo95DwQ&s=19 Edit: Next winter we are planning to go to this part of Japan for a week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Going from a foot, to 4-8 to 2-4 so fast is just this winter in a nutshell 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Sorry if I came across so negative earlier. I made the mistake of getting my hopes up way to high. Was definitely bummed this morning. The models performance yesterday was not so good and it's my fault for drinking the Kool-Aid. Went out and enjoyed the Ice Festival on our lake today and then took the wife out for dinner. Great day even though it was freezing mist all day. Hoping for a few inches tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:47 PM, Lightning said: Sorry if I came across so negative earlier. I made the mistake of getting my hopes up way to high. Was definitely bummed this morning. The models performance yesterday was not so good and it's my fault for drinking the Kool-Aid. Went out and enjoyed the Ice Festival on our lake today and then took the wife out for dinner. Great day even though it was freezing mist all day. Hoping for a few inches tonight. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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