Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Notable step down on the 06z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 19 minutes ago, Powerball said: Notable step down on the 06z NAM... Can't make up its mind the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Pretty low confidence over here. The Hrr is showing pretty much nothing here today then we have to rely on the main storm to develop fast enough to throw moisture this far back northwest. Every run is trending weaker and longer to develop like they always do these days. I thought the WAA stuff today would at least get us something but I’m not even sure about that now. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1.5" from the WAA here. And looks like that will be final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3-6" around my area being reported so far. 2.8" imby. NWS DLH had the avg ratio for the SLR at 48:1. Very dry, powdery snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like 4-8” now for Toledo metro tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, roardog said: Pretty low confidence over here. The Hrr is showing pretty much nothing here today then we have to rely on the main storm to develop fast enough to throw moisture this far back northwest. Every run is trending weaker and longer to develop like they always do these days. I thought the WAA stuff today would at least get us something but I’m not even sure about that now. lol Not looking good. Oh well. Today's 3-4 is now in tenths of an inch. . We'll see how tonight goes but my hopes are pretty rock bottom right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 39 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Looks like 4-8” now for Toledo metro tomorrow My guess is northern OH will do best out our this system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, Lightning said: My guess is northern OH will do best out our this system. Yeah I’m wondering what the hell happened last night. Suprised at only the duster this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, roardog said: Pretty low confidence over here. The Hrr is showing pretty much nothing here today then we have to rely on the main storm to develop fast enough to throw moisture this far back northwest. Every run is trending weaker and longer to develop like they always do these days. I thought the WAA stuff today would at least get us something but I’m not even sure about that now. lol how much you get overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The lake this morning on the Wisconsin side. She’s calm after a violent night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/12/2025 at 10:52 PM, cyclone77 said: I'll go 1-2" first guess. That's with 1st wave. Like Hawkeye I have low expectations with main wave. Prob DAB or heavy overcast with that part. Nailed it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Yeah I’m wondering what the hell happened last night. Suprised at only the duster this morning Last night was not as surprising to me. It is like summer with the nocturnal storms. When they are robust in IL and WI, when they arrive over here they are typically a dud. Things were to redevelop significantly this morning into the after noon with 2-4" expected throughout the day but now the HRRR is has strongly gone way from that. Went to bed with most models outputting 10-18" for the whole event. Wake up today with several models now showing 3-5" for the event. Let just say I am nervous to see the 12Z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Nailed it Sad. I was really hoping this would have been a W to E 6-10" system for many. Turn into a crazy chaos and suddenly a nail bitter over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The 12z NAM has corrected significantly from the 06z run (although still not as impressive as yesterday's runs). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 35 minutes ago, Lightning said: Last night was not as surprising to me. It is like summer with the nocturnal storms. When they are robust in IL and WI, when they arrive over here they are typically a dud. Things were to redevelop significantly this morning into the after noon with 2-4" expected throughout the day but now the HRRR is has strongly gone way from that. Went to bed with most models outputting 10-18" for the whole event. Wake up today with several models now showing 3-5" for the event. Let just say I am nervous to see the 12Z run. The models were never really bullish on much with the front end thump. it's always been the better snows we're going to come later today with the main event. Also it's probably a good idea to get in the habit of not even looking at the snow Maps because even the 10 to 1 Maps you got to shave off three four inches from what they're showing usually. Also just landed (bachelor party tonight but was gonna come home anyways) and man my body is in shock once I stepped outside and took in the snowy scene. The cold never usually bothers me but the fact that I've been in 85° weather the last month, it feels like -5 lol. Excited for my first snowstorm in like 5 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2-3” reports across the metro this morning. Getting some east Michigan style mood flakes currently. Another Very light and powdery snow. I don’t think we’ve had any snows this winter under 12:1 SLR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I watch the LOT updates like a hawk (and this forum) when a storm is forecast simply because I don’t know what you all know. That said, I don’t think I can remember a time when LOT updated their graphics so often with so many forecast changes. Their graphic now shows me in the 70-100% chance of accumulating snow. Early this AM they had my location entirely as a wintry mix with little to no new accumulation Weird Storm for the pros and seasoned weather nerds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Snowing very nicely here with round 1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: The models were never really bullish on much with the front end thump. it's always been the better snows we're going to come later today with the main event. Also it's probably a good idea to get in the habit of not even looking at the snow Maps because even the 10 to 1 Maps you got to shave off three four inches from what they're showing usually. So for this winter the 10:1 have been fairly good for my area (keep in mind that is not the actual ratio but it works out). But I only use them and stopped looking at the others as they are more like porn!! I was not expecting 18"as that would be foolish. My hope was 8-12" (i.e. 10") total based on all the trends and potential being shown yesterday. While it could still happen I think it best to temper my expectations to 4-6" and hope for comeback as the 12Z NAM showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Snowing very nicely here with round 1. Just got going again here. When I woke it was ice pellets and graupel; now actual quarter sized flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, Lightning said: So for this winter the 10:1 have been fairly good for my area (keep in mind that is not the actual ratio but it works out). But I only use them and stopped looking at the others as they are more like porn!! I was not expecting 18"as that would be foolish. My hope was 8-12" (i.e. 10") total based on all the trends and potential being shown yesterday. While it could still happen I think it best to temper my expectations to 4-6" and hope for comeback as the 12Z NAM showed Nam looks pretty sexy for later, could be surprised and see some good totals later once the low gets cranking. There's always surprises when a low is maturing and strenghtening nearby. It's a nice change as it seems often lately systems are petering out when they approach us. Still incredible to see the difference in strength and track of nam vs rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Baum said: how much you get overnight? Dusting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Nam looks pretty sexy for later, could be surprised and see some good totals later once the low gets cranking. There's always surprises when a low is maturing and strenghtening nearby. It's a nice change as it seems often lately systems are petering out when they approach us. Agreed. Regarding the petering systems: It took me several year but I have learned the well developed systems moving in favor area to the west and north of here even with the models always just keeping it strong. It is a lot more fun being on the maturing/strengthening side but definitely more stressful/risky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 IWX mentioning potential ground blizzard conditions on Sunday especially in rural areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12z updates your viewing pleasure or displeasure: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 45 minutes ago, Lightning said: Agreed. Regarding the petering systems: It took me several year but I have learned the well developed systems moving in favor area to the west and north of here even with the models always just keeping it strong. It is a lot more fun being on the maturing/strengthening side but definitely more stressful/risky Yes, bands almost always end up further nw when strenghtneing systems move our way. It's been pouring here the last hour, easily inch plus band overhead. Nice little appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I was right to never really expect anything this weekend. The bullish models always looked dubious. We got nothing from the Friday WAA snow band and then we got only a dusting this morning. Honestly, though, I'm not complaining because I'm still dealing with a cold and being outside to clean a couple mornings ago did not help one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 29 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: 12z updates your viewing pleasure or displeasure: Thinking 6-9 looks good for the metro with closer to 11 along Lake Huron 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'm calling 4 as this back end defo sets up this evening. I'm gonna be on the tail end of it. Models support that call somewhat, its a bit high, by I don't care lol. I NEED snow cover to end this near record setting cold for the last half of FEB coming in for here. Cold is not justified without snow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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