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2/14-2/15 Potential Major Winter Storm


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I suspect this storm will be slow to intensify to full potential but when it does (after 18z) it will begin to create bands of heavy snowfall across most of s ON and se MI, nw OH giving many in those regions 12-15" totals and possibly up to 20" with lake enhancement. There will be some backbuilding as a result of the intensification process and this will help Chicago keep adding with better rates developing, to reach 7 or 8 inches. Given the rush of very cold air around the low as it departs, dangerous lake effect blizzard conditions can be expected in parts of sw Ontario and w NY, and it will also be a significant lake effect snow producer for w MI with more localized blizzard conditions as a result (near GRR in particular). 

Some parts of the Lake Huron snowbelt could see impassable roads for 2-3 days after this storm winds down. 

One analogue for the storm (Feb 25, 1965) gave Wiarton ON four feet of snow (generally it was 15-20 inches across s.w. ON).

It may seem like it's starting off rather feebly perhaps, but my guess is that it will become a powerful storm around the time it's near FWA to TOL. Will give a specific forecast for DTW, 13.5" and TOL could see 16" due to lake enhancement. CLE is going to get a mixture of snow, sleet and ice pellets with thunder-snow likely to develop over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario regions. 

Western Lake Ontario could see even more due to lake enhancement but Toronto region in general will see 12 to 16 inches. I don't think it will mix very much as cold air is going to clamp around the low center during the development phase. There won't be much of a coastal transfer until beyond a BTV-BOS axis so only VT, NH and ME are likely to see significant snowfalls apart from a brief interval before the low reaches Ohio, 1-3" will be common inland northeast, but predicting 15-20" in BTV and Montreal. 

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It was probably about what everyone was thinking anyway, from reading the discussion, but I do see a high impact event in parts of MI and ON, if it would intensify faster then IL and IN also. 

Another analogue might be Apr 2-3, 1975 which was a very high impact snowstorm north of Toronto, due to a 15" storm snowfall being followed by 15" of Georgian Bay lake effect and 50 mph winds. People were stranded for up to a week after that one (despite the late date it was frigid air coming across the Great Lakes and daytime highs below 20 F). I remember that because I was living in the region when it hit, and it was entirely underpredicted at the time. 

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6 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

No way I get 3" IMBY (OKK).  The hour by hour NWS for has 3/4" of rain at 34-36 degrees.  What an absolute waste.

Ours is coming very late Saturday night into Sunday. If we get any it's on the backside and all of the models are consistently showing a backside hit after the liquid, which is good. The ground around here is far from warm so sticking won't be an issue IMO. Keep the faith! lol :tomato:

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5 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said:

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Wonder why no WWA was issued; they've issued ones before for rush hour impacts.

The internally don't follow their usual routine is part of the issue.

Any other time, a WWA would have been issued.

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IWX only went with one to cover the potential ice impact.

“If it was just snow, headlines would not likely be issued, but with the threat of freezing precip, it was decided to err on the side of caution and issue a Winter Weather Advisory from 4Z to 18Z Sat.”

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