Cartier God Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 the trend is our friend here in wayne county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Was pretty legit out there for awhile with that WAA bump. Picked up a quick inch with some nice near-blizzard action out in the open country. As expected tomorrow looking like a strung out POS, so additional snowfall prob <1" for this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Heaviest snow here since the second mid January event last winter (the Friday morning 2-3"/hour thump followed by 40-50 mph wind gusts).Edit: Probably 1/4 mile or less visibility 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Visibility very quickly deteriorated. Looks like 1/4 mile vis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Detroit Rock City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hey man, a lot of us down here in kitchen sink land have a shot at 3-6 the night of the `16th into the 17th lol. I vote to add those 2 days because this system has 2 personalities lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I suspect this storm will be slow to intensify to full potential but when it does (after 18z) it will begin to create bands of heavy snowfall across most of s ON and se MI, nw OH giving many in those regions 12-15" totals and possibly up to 20" with lake enhancement. There will be some backbuilding as a result of the intensification process and this will help Chicago keep adding with better rates developing, to reach 7 or 8 inches. Given the rush of very cold air around the low as it departs, dangerous lake effect blizzard conditions can be expected in parts of sw Ontario and w NY, and it will also be a significant lake effect snow producer for w MI with more localized blizzard conditions as a result (near GRR in particular). Some parts of the Lake Huron snowbelt could see impassable roads for 2-3 days after this storm winds down. One analogue for the storm (Feb 25, 1965) gave Wiarton ON four feet of snow (generally it was 15-20 inches across s.w. ON). It may seem like it's starting off rather feebly perhaps, but my guess is that it will become a powerful storm around the time it's near FWA to TOL. Will give a specific forecast for DTW, 13.5" and TOL could see 16" due to lake enhancement. CLE is going to get a mixture of snow, sleet and ice pellets with thunder-snow likely to develop over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario regions. Western Lake Ontario could see even more due to lake enhancement but Toronto region in general will see 12 to 16 inches. I don't think it will mix very much as cold air is going to clamp around the low center during the development phase. There won't be much of a coastal transfer until beyond a BTV-BOS axis so only VT, NH and ME are likely to see significant snowfalls apart from a brief interval before the low reaches Ohio, 1-3" will be common inland northeast, but predicting 15-20" in BTV and Montreal. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Roger Smith has spoken... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It was probably about what everyone was thinking anyway, from reading the discussion, but I do see a high impact event in parts of MI and ON, if it would intensify faster then IL and IN also. Another analogue might be Apr 2-3, 1975 which was a very high impact snowstorm north of Toronto, due to a 15" storm snowfall being followed by 15" of Georgian Bay lake effect and 50 mph winds. People were stranded for up to a week after that one (despite the late date it was frigid air coming across the Great Lakes and daytime highs below 20 F). I remember that because I was living in the region when it hit, and it was entirely underpredicted at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Roger, Chicago 7-8 inches???? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM would make Indiana/NW Ohio peeps happy, the low is a little further SE which means less rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 the NAM finally caved west of the lake, maybe an inch or so after the snow tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Crazy long LES band of Lake Michigan off the back side of the storm. This could set up some areas in SW MI into IN nicely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It appears the slow step back down to reality has begun with the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ripping here now. Might squeeze 2” out of this tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: It appears the slow step back down to reality has begun with the 00z NAM. Well if that's 3-6 here I'll take it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Pic while I was in Skokie about an hour ago. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Measured 4” here with the snow winding down now. Quite the nice thump 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 hours ago, KokomoWX said: No way I get 3" IMBY (OKK). The hour by hour NWS for has 3/4" of rain at 34-36 degrees. What an absolute waste. Ours is coming very late Saturday night into Sunday. If we get any it's on the backside and all of the models are consistently showing a backside hit after the liquid, which is good. The ground around here is far from warm so sticking won't be an issue IMO. Keep the faith! lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ^^^ a rare sight x2, the stateline chair spinning at Wilmot for the first time in a few years, and fresh goods coming down for the lift ride 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Wonder why no WWA was issued; they've issued ones before for rush hour impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: Wonder why no WWA was issued; they've issued ones before for rush hour impacts. Was wondering the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Was wondering the same They didn't think the expected snowfall total (1-3") was worth a WAA. They instead opted to cover it with a SWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Currently sitting on a forecasted 9 inches for the weekend, with 14" high-end limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Powerball said: They didn't think the expected snowfall total (1-3") was worth a WAA. And I think its past rush hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: Wonder why no WWA was issued; they've issued ones before for rush hour impacts. The internally don't follow their usual routine is part of the issue. Any other time, a WWA would have been issued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: They didn't think the expected snowfall total (1-3") was worth a WAA. They have been issued int he past for the same. Classic inconsistencies in the NWS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 IWX only went with one to cover the potential ice impact. “If it was just snow, headlines would not likely be issued, but with the threat of freezing precip, it was decided to err on the side of caution and issue a Winter Weather Advisory from 4Z to 18Z Sat.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: They didn't think the expected snowfall total (1-3") was worth a WAA. Still looks goofy to see 90% of the LOT cwa surrounded by a WWA and Illinois's all like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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