SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We are going to get the classic “maybe 10”, maybe 0”” forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Severe weather easy to predict? *Laughs in Southern Plains under DFW's cap of steel* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It’ll become more clear in a few hours with radar sig, but I think the floor is safely 1-2” for those north of I-80 as consensus has grown for a 2-3 hour period of heavy WAA this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 With these models, this should be LOT’s AFD 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m just going to expect 1-2” here today and anything else is a bonus. Models are really making this a fun one to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 2:42 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: With these models, this should be LOT’s AFD Expand The boom/bust potential being legit at both ends for the NE-IL area makes me not envy any of those mets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 2:42 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: With these models, this should be LOT’s AFD Expand Wasn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 2:42 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: With these models, this should be LOT’s AFD Expand @RCNYILWX do this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'm happy for the potential for you Michigan folks. But wish I could squeak in one good snow. Waa snows definitely look to be non event here. My only hope is the wraparound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Still pretty drastic differences between the nam/gfs and the rgem/euro. Ukie is on the SE side also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 2:57 PM, McHenrySnow said: Wasn't it? Yup…it’s gonna snow or it’s not. I’m telling my patients today this injection into their spine will either help or it won’t.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:22 PM, DocATL said: Yup…it’s gonna snow or it’s not. I’m telling my patients today this injection into their spine will either help or it won’t. . Expand You may die today. Or you won’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:22 PM, DocATL said: Yup…it’s gonna snow or it’s not. I’m telling my patients today this injection into their spine will either help or it won’t. . Expand To be fair, that is what my spinal doctor told me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:15 PM, Radtechwxman said: I'm happy for the potential for you Michigan folks. But wish I could squeak in one good snow. Waa snows definitely look to be non event here. My only hope is the wraparound. Expand Crazy how different it is just a state away!! I hope the WAA gets going enough which benefits you too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:22 PM, Stevo6899 said: Still pretty drastic differences between the nam/gfs and the rgem/euro. Ukie is on the SE side also. Expand Nam has the low over Lake Erie meanwhile RGEM is by the PA/OH border. A good 200 mile difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:39 PM, Snowstorms said: Nam has the low over Lake Erie meanwhile RGEM is by the PA/OH border. A good 200 mile difference. Expand Early look at gfs, it's gonna be on the amped side. You can tell early on the ridge and the gfs digs the low more, thus stronger, more nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:47 PM, Stevo6899 said: Early look at gfs, it's gonna be on the amped side. You can tell early on the ridge and the gfs digs the low more, thus stronger, more nw. Expand Definitely further NW than the RDPS but still SE and colder than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Better than the 06Z run for sure, hopefully we keep getting closer to that 0Z run from last night lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 if it smells like a rat, its a rat. i am out on this one. hoping for 1-2 WAA thump tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Cold side precip seems odd, would think for a more wound up solution it would be throwing some more consistent moisture back into IL/WI 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Meanwhile DTX has a snow map out already with three to four inches for the whole area through the weekend. Kind of surprised they even threw out totals considering the vast differences in the models. The last storm the GFS was right and had a weaker storm while the euro was wrong and had a stronger storm. Both portraying the opposite this go around. I'd hate to be the nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:55 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Cold side precip seems odd, would think for a more wound up solution it would be throwing some more consistent moisture back into IL/WI Expand Severe weather down south robbing moisture transport north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:55 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Cold side precip seems odd, would think for a more wound up solution it would be throwing some more consistent moisture back into IL/WI Expand I thought the exact same thing. Maybe moisture getting robbed by convection. I definitely don't dig the look of gfs for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 fwiw i'm hedging on the stronger/nw solutions based on the consistent slower/sharper trend with the trough and resulting lee cyclogenesis, surface features vary widely from model to model and run to run but this upper level trend is p consistent running out of time for changes but we're right at the point where small shifts will result in large changes to the cold sector qpf fields 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:55 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: Cold side precip seems odd, would think for a more wound up solution it would be throwing some more consistent moisture back into IL/WIThat has to do with the evolution aloft, in which how things are currently depicted are not favorable for such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:57 PM, Harry Perry said: Severe weather down south robbing moisture transport north. This is one of the most overused statements in the winter, and is not the case in this instance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 3:58 PM, A-L-E-K said: running out of time for changes but we're right at the point where small shifts will result in large changes to the cold sector qpf fieldsThis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Honestly this is one of those times where the old Winter Storm Watch format where you can explain the large amount of variability would have came in handy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GEM is close to being good for everyone but just doesn't get there further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Honestly it seems like most guidance is showing at least a couple inches across LOT, which is a win this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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