Powerball Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I have to imagine that DTW, IWX and GRR issue watches for portions of their CWA this morning. Certainly enough of a consensus in model guidance to support it at this stage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Fair assessment by LOT: WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW FOR HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, A FORECAST SOLUTION THAT APPEARED TO GARNER AN INCREASED AMOUNT OF SUPPORT AMONGST THE BROADER 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS ONE THAT INCLUDES A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EARLIER AND DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IF A MORE "WOUND-UP" SOLUTION LIKE THIS WERE TO VERIFY, THEN A SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL COULD AFFECT A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE LOCATION OF WHERE THIS HEAVIER SNOW OCCURS VARIES CONSIDERABLY AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE IT. BUT AGAIN, THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS WEEKEND'S WEATHER PATTERN IS LEADING TO A GREATER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR PRECIPITATION FORECAST THAN USUAL FOR A FORECAST THAT IS ONLY 24-48 HOURS OUT, AND GIVEN THE SHEER NUMBER OF POTENTIAL FAILURE MODES THAT EXIST FOR THIS HIGHER-END SNOWFALL OUTCOME, WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME MORE CONSISTENT SUPPORT FOR THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION BEFORE MESSAGING IT MORE PROMINENTLY. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 yeah, def skewing more the longshot direction given ensemble looks and nothing on recent short term guidance screams good trends incoming. waa thump looks p locked and loaded for a a couple hours of well timed mood flakes tho (event of the year?) and hoping we can get a slower solution with a ull to our south manages to work out somehow extremely busy day little time for tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Yeah, looks pretty meh again for the Chicago metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: yeah, def skewing more the longshot direction given ensemble looks and nothing on recent short term guidance screams good trends incoming. waa thump looks p locked and loaded for a a couple hours of well timed mood flakes tho (event of the year?) and hoping we can get a slower solution with a ull to our south manages to work out somehow extremely busy day little time for tracking We're running out of time. I'd still trust the Euro/EPS over any other piece of guidance, and it has come farther northwest every run since 0z Thursday. But they are relatively small bumps. I think we're cooked to be honest, but parts of Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Ontario may still do well with the main show. 6z runs were a step back across the board, so that isn't good for us. If I can somehow pull 2-3" total out of this whole thing, I'll consider it a win. But, what could have been... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 06z runs didn't look as favorable. If 12z runs follow suit I'm probably going to say those 0z runs were a fluke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, Powerball said: I have to imagine that DTW, IWX and GRR issue watches for portions of their CWA this morning. Certainly enough of a consensus in model guidance to support it at this stage... Duration and uncertainty give pause. Maybe this afternoon if trends continue. Seems more like a long duration WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We're running out of time. I'd still trust the Euro/EPS over any other piece of guidance, and it has come farther northwest every run since 0z Thursday. But they are relatively small bumps. I think we're cooked to be honest, but parts of Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Ontario may still do well with the main show. 6z runs were a step back across the board, so that isn't good for us. If I can somehow pull 2-3" total out of this whole thing, I'll consider it a win. But, what could have been... Yes unfortunately. Will the front thump have enough forcing to overcome the dry air. I’d err on the side of bust because past seems to be prologue. The other two waves have issues of their own. We may get and inch or two out of this but I think the 3k NAM is even possible…don’t look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 That was a pretty exciting 6 hours guys. Back to reality. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 51 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: yeah, def skewing more the longshot direction given ensemble looks and nothing on recent short term guidance screams good trends incoming. waa thump looks p locked and loaded for a a couple hours of well timed mood flakes tho (event of the year?) and hoping we can get a slower solution with a ull to our south manages to work out somehow extremely busy day little time for tracking Dream crusher post on time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gonna stick to my original 1-2" call for here/QC. Normally sort of a non-event, but should make it the 2nd best event of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: Dream crusher post on time tone more negative than intended, the longshot is getting the closed low major with the jackpot track to work out with this setup which i think is fair, it would be a rare and high end event and it's hard to get too hyped without a good model™ biting either way, most fun setup all winter and it's the closest we've been in a while to a dog even with the low floor 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z HRRR is holding firm with the amped / NW solution. We'll see if the other 12z models follow suit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I have no idea what this is going to do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Perhaps a more unfortunate trend is that the models have been slowly but steadily doing away with the initial WAA snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: 12z HRRR is holding firm with the amped / NW solution. We'll see if the other 12z m Much like the nam, i find the HrrR pretty much useless past like 20 hours out. The rgem went se. Gfs nw. Who knows. Historically I'd be worried about a nw track but with seasonal trends and phasing involved here, I think this one has a better chance missing to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This will be the one that explodes and surprises everyone. It's kind of fun going into it not knowing what to expect. Definitely interesting watching the local TV Mets riding the line of that "not sure exactly what to expect" look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Well the rich get richer on 12z hrrr. Miss waa snow and deformation band takes a while to change over here. Would be nice to catch a break for one system. Need it se a bit more but that's unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This was the part of LOT’s FD that made me audibly groan:“First, a shortwave trough is expected to zip eastward acrossthe central Plains and Midwest today as a much larger, longerwavelength trough proceeds inland from the Pacific Coast. Thisshortwave, accompanied by a leading wing of warm airadvection/isentropic ascent, is slated to reach our area earlythis evening, when thermal profiles will be supportive of snowbeing the sole precipitation type. The antecedent low- to mid-level air mass will be quite parched and will likely requiresnow to be cranked out of the overhead cloud deck at a prettyhefty rate in order for top-down saturation to take place andallow for snowflakes to start reaching the ground before theinitial push of forcing clears the area. Thus, this evening`ssnowfall potential could very well be "boom or bust", with mostlocations in our forecast area likely to either see a 1-3 hourlong burst of snow that comes down at a moderate to heavy rateor little to no snow at all.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I do like that this could be a prolonged storms with36+ hours of snow falling!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10:1 map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: I do like that this could be a prolonged storms with36+ hours of snow falling!! I’m praying DTX area gets slammed. Holding in any excitement until around midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 28 minutes ago, Stebo said: I have no idea what this is going to do. I know I’m getting about 3” tonight but tomorrow could be 8” or 0” and i have no idea which way we’re headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 hours ago, Powerball said: I have to imagine that DTW, IWX and GRR issue watches for portions of their CWA this morning. Certainly enough of a consensus in model guidance to support it at this stage... Nope, only GRR with a WWA. I don't know what IWX is waiting on. Maybe waiting to coordinate with LOT? There definitely should be a Watch out for heavy snow in the NW CWA and maybe a WWA for a mixed bag in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, IWXwx said: Nope, only GRR with a WWA. I don't know what IWX is waiting on. Maybe waiting to coordinate with LOT? There definitely should be a Watch out for heavy snow in the NW CWA and maybe a WWA for a mixed bag in the SE. Yeah, they punted. Kind of funny, but not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z NAM will also continue to be amped / NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: I’m praying DTX area gets slammed. Holding in any excitement until around midnight tonight. I am hoping this is one that come together right over head. I have to admit my excitement had already started 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 52 minutes ago, Stebo said: I have no idea what this is going to do. Well said This is why I prefer severe weather Verbatim the GFS & Euro show the Toledo metro getting absolutely slammed early Sunday morning. Would be the heaviest snow I've seen in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Well said This is why I prefer severe weather Verbatim the GFS & Euro show the Toledo metro getting absolutely slammed early Sunday morning. Would be the heaviest snow I've seen in years Yes, severe weather - notoriously easily to predict. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 i remember when joe called the mega derecho the night before i'll never forget it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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