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2/14-2/15 Potential Major Winter Storm


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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The setup is almost good.  It kinda looks like all the heavy convection down south is stealing the moisture from the cold sector.

The issue is more-so aloft. Checking it out under the hood at 500mb tells the story, in which we are dealing with a strung out wave.

As mentioned earlier, that is a good thing in this case. A fully consolidated and potent wave, which phases, would likely mean a rainer for most.

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11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Well if we follow this storms trend, cut it in half at 06z, then cut that in half again at 00z, and then underperform. 
 

edit… shit I am starting to sound like beavis. Send help. 

There is one thing I do like about this one compared to today is 500 mb Vorticity is more defined for the weekend event.  Todays event is a lot more scattered about at the 500mb level.  Hopefully we don't have as much of a negative trend.

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29 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Well if we follow this storms trend, cut it in half at 06z, then cut that in half again at 00z, and then underperform. 
 

edit… shit I am starting to sound like beavis. Send help. 

Thought posting Kuchera totals was dubious unless specifically warranted

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40 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thought posting Kuchera totals was dubious unless specifically warranted

I don't want to see another Kuchera map for the rest of my life. I find them most useful when SLRs are sub 10:1, otherwise they just get everyone's hopes up needlessly. If you're depending on ratios, 9 times out of 10, you're going to be disappointed. 

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