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2/14-2/15 Potential Major Winter Storm


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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Saturdays system seems more W to E whereas Wednesdays is more SW to NE. What kind of effect will the first storm have on the second?

Usually the low tracks south of the snow pack, it's not always but with sliders W-E it does more often than not. Also too the storm Wednesday will leave back some blocked/confluence too, which is why it is more on a W-E path.

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this one is more interesting to me.   Highest probability is that it's too far north for mby, but it's a convoluted set up and seems like models are having trouble figuring out where the dominant low eventually forms and tracks.    The nao will be neutral, the AO is in the tank, the PNA is positive, and the mjo will be in 8, so I don't think a cut up into the lakes is that likely, but still could come too far north for the i-70 crowd.    Also depends on what this weeks storm does.   Very rare to see back to back storms take a similar track within 72 hours of each other.   Models love to show that kind of porn but reality is usually a different story.    At least something to track though.

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32 minutes ago, buckeye said:

this one is more interesting to me.   Highest probability is that it's too far north for mby, but it's a convoluted set up and seems like models are having trouble figuring out where the dominant low eventually forms and tracks.    The nao will be neutral, the AO is in the tank, the PNA is positive, and the mjo will be in 8, so I don't think a cut up into the lakes is that likely, but still could come too far north for the i-70 crowd.    Also depends on what this weeks storm does.   Very rare to see back to back storms take a similar track within 72 hours of each other.   Models love to show that kind of porn but reality is usually a different story.    At least something to track though.

I've been addicted to model porn since I was 12 lol

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Not digging how this one comes together overhead.  Any delay in that and will be a complete whiff to the east for this area.

mixed feelings and low confidence overall at this point but the initial waa surge at 850 over the plains on vday is p robust

if anything, i suspect there will be some quality, if short lived, waa snows somewhere in our region

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

12z GFS was so close to something really huge.

It's weird the low pressure system pretty much just gets shunted East as there must be confluence to the north. Usually in that case we see the low weakening but it doesn't lose strength as it shoots ENE. Doesn't really transfer energy either. Interesting trajectory/orientation.

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1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said:

There’s some heavy hitters on the GEFS. Not sure I can stand to track this one as closely as Wednesday night’s storm. 

Another heartbreak, I'm sure. I was so excited for the possibility of a 12" snowcover this weekend. I'll be lucky to have 1/2 that. 

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