Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 And so begin our semi-annual February floods: The firehose is poised and aimed. The creeks and streams runneth over. Puddles gather on low lying areas. Dams are pumping out 2-3 generators. The Holston River in west Kingsport this past Friday (2/7) The Obed today 2/9 MRX: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 For once, I am glad to be in a rain shadow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Yeah not liking the look of this, though we are still super dry Current Conditions GFS/ECMWF 7 Day Ensembles 7 Day 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m a little surprised to not see any flood watches up this morning from MRX. Maybe they are waiting until after the first impulse moves through. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS keeps shifting the heaviest axis north. Euro as well, albeit not as much movement The creeks are so low down here in SE tn, not sure if that has anything to do with MRX holding off. Nice soaking rains so hopeful for that initial entraption can keep it flooding under control. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Knoxtron said: GFS keeps shifting the heaviest axis north. Euro as well, albeit not as much movement The creeks are so low down here in SE tn, not sure if that has anything to do with MRX holding off. Nice soaking rains so hopeful for that initial entraption can keep it flooding under control. Grounds still saturated up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Well here in mid TN. The rain has started and it’s plentiful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just crossed 1” IMBY. Running way ahead of schedule per modeling so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 38 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: Just crossed 1” IMBY. Running way ahead of schedule per modeling so far. Same here. We’re way ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 MRX keeps knocking back the totals they see for the valley. Did have knoxville at 6 to 8 inches. now just 2 to 3. With the dryness that we have had this does not seem to be much of a deal. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, bearman said: MRX keeps knocking back the totals they see for the valley. Did have knoxville at 6 to 8 inches. now just 2 to 3. With the dryness that we have had this does not seem to be much of a deal. . I thought that too until I looked at the bottom caption. That’s just through Thursday AM, and since we’ve already had close to or exceeding an inch in most places that looks about like their original thinking. The other map took into effect the entire week through Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 14 minutes ago, Jed33 said: I thought that too until I looked at the bottom caption. That’s just through Thursday AM, and since we’ve already had close to or exceeding an inch in most places that looks about like their original thinking. The other map took into effect the entire week through Sunday. Yeah, and additionally the storms last Thursday night flooded some areas already. I received 2 inches in a hour. I know that didn't include all of Knoxville or the area, but places that got hit by that line have some pretty saturated grounds. Was the worst flooding I had seen at my house in 6 years I have lived here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2.1 inches here so far and still pouring. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Yeah, and additionally the storms last Thursday night flooded some areas already. I received 2 inches in a hour. I know that didn't include all of Knoxville or the area, but places that got hit by that line have some pretty saturated grounds. Was the worst flooding I had seen at my house in 6 years I have lived here. Oh man! I hate to hear that! Hopefully you didn’t have any water get in the house? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1.95 here so far and still Raining. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1.16 so far for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I was skeptical a few days ago but this 7-day chart may well verify. South end has received over half already. North side should get slammed over the weekend. The current (Feb. 12) for Saturday Feb. 15 WPC excessive rain is below the older QPF forecast. Today's excessive rain Feb. 12 is Slight northern MS/AL/GA and some southeast Tenn. Excessive Rain, not severe wx, for Saturday Feb. 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1.4 in mby so far in Roane County. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Sitting at 3" so far on the southern plateau. Definitely plan to make a trip to Fall Creek Falls this weekend! You can see waterfalls everywhere in the Sequatchie valley where the plateau dumps onto the bluff lines, its honestly magical haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Well the fire hose is back on here in mid TN for a few hours. Sheesh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Moderate rain ongoing. 1.04 inches today so far. Just over 3 inches since yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/11/2025 at 6:37 PM, Jed33 said: Oh man! I hate to hear that! Hopefully you didn’t have any water get in the house? No, fortunately house is fine. It is in a relatively good spot. Not so good for the neighbors though. No damage, but it is concerning for future events. Especially the old lady across the street whose house is on concrete slab. We are a good 3 feet off the ground here (crawlspace) and the water runs away from the house. Starting to do it again. Last I checked we had 1.20 for the day here. Similar to yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I wound up with 3.1" the past 2 days. Was a weird event because it basically rained for 48 hours straight, but it was mostly light-moderate rain. The highest rate I had was only .38" an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, Wurbus said: I wound up with 3.1" the past 2 days. Was a weird event because it basically rained for 48 hours straight, but it was mostly light-moderate rain. The highest rate I had was only .38" an hour. Yeah, saved us from any major flooding thankfully. The Saturday Deal could be another Story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4.25" IMBY. I think we wind up around 6" after Saturday. Worried about tree damage with any winds on the Saturday storms. The ground has gone from abnormally dry to totally saturated really quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Tee it up! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Tee it up! Pretty impressive,especially if the models are wrong as much more convection being shown,could be brutal as much rain theyve gotten recently 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 225 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 Day 2 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 15 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 16 2025 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Confidence in a very impactful, life-threatening and significant heavy rainfall and flash flood event remains high beginning late tonight through Saturday night across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. While there is some subtle variability in the placement of the heaviest QPF (northwest to southeast), some clustering of the guidance happened this cycle for a swath of 3-6" from western TN through central Kentucky with a signal for isolated amounts up to 8". The environment will be quite unusual for mid-February. The combination of MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg and PWATs reaching around 1.5 inches has only rarely been observed in KY/TN at this time of year, and would be supportive of 1-2 inch per hour rain rates in the most organized and intense convection. A powerful southwesterly LLJ over 60 knots, oriented at an acute angle to the developing warm front, will favor backbuilding into the region of stronger instability. And the overall mean flow should favor some periods of training convective clusters or bands near the warm front and surface low track. All of these ingredients are fairly classic for impactful flash flooding cases, and significant impacts are anticipated in this one as well. Given all of this, a High Risk was introduced for portions of NW TN through central KY, where life-threatening and significant flooding is anticipated. Elsewhere, not many changes were made to the Moderate/Slight Risk areas, with some pulling back out of eastern KY and the central Appalachians where the trends for less QPF continues somewhat. However, don't want to downplay that area given its sensitivity and antecedent conditions as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We have already picked up .81" and it looks fairly solid back to the west; before sunrise, judging by what the creek sounds like near me, all of that .81" has run off no telling what things will look like by the end of the day. I would say we would be primed for power outages if we get any wind with the storms later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It appears the worse of the flooding is setting up right along I40 including Nashville. Very concerning the amount of rain coming down there. This could get very ugly & life threatening quickly if it stays over that area. Luckily here in Murfreesboro we are just on the edge of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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