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Feb 8-9th Snow, Sleet, ZR OBS Thread


The 4 Seasons
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19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's been a pretty rough run of snow depth locally since 2018, and local research has definitely shown that we're losing total days with snow cover in the winter.

This one definitely has the feeling of the December 2020 storm on the ratio front. That modeled 300 mb deep DGZ was definitely a strong signal for upping SLRs. It's just so damn hard to push yourself to forecast more than 20:1. GYX has at least a 23:1 from the morning observation, so my CoCoRaHS gauge may not have been far off.

Great call up here. This storm did not perform at all as I expected.  Completely wrong. 

The whole precipitation distribution is much more as though the primary never completely fizzled all the way into CNE. The early transfer never panned out, and the dynamics followed…

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38 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

5.0” depth crusty in middle might have been 5.6” or so early in the morning as I got another 1.1” after I cleared and went to bed with 4.5” after radar obs and camera 5.3” will be my total..

 

 

solid bust in CT looks like 3-5” statewide on first glance 

Certainly wouldn't seem like a bust if some had stayed with the more logical forecast of 4 to 8 inches. Snow forecasts from Wednesday/Thursday were spot on... I never saw this area snowing all night with the speed this was moving. With this last band coming through in Westfield it should make my total 5.5 inches when done

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I literally got 7.5 inches in every spot. I put the ruler in. So that’s a pretty confident measurement. Still very light snow falling but  probably not accumulating much.

Same here, but there’s so much fluff it’s settling more than it accumulates. 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

These fast flow systems have been annoying. 

Bingo ... 

... this is, and has been,  our problem in this pattern foot so far.   Unfortunately, we were warned not to go too crazy with the higher QPF/expectation. One of the reasons for that was definitely connected to the fast flow and compression stuff which I won't care to reiterate.  

But the kind of excitement driven lure behind why this has become a preoccupation  in people ( to these modeling "tools"  is a weird affliction )  it's not one very penetrable by reasoning, when the reasons call for constraint.  Haha.  like oh my god - right?

Anyway, relative to this pattern's trend&behaviors, until we trade that for a newer paradigm, I would suggest the 13th and the 16th will probably be behaviorally similar.  No guarantee, you may get lucky - but it's a fool's waste of time.  It's more likely that 20 to 30% over assessment or whatever in QPF by the guidance.  And humans will of course ignore the sound limitation arguments in lieu of the d-drip attic's stunning ability to remain vigil and operate within the framework of restraint ... and we'll go through this all over again. 

5" here. 

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