Feb 12/13 2025 Wintry Mix

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

We're flying out of BGR direct to Daytona Thursday at 10:30am, might be a tad hairy, but BGR is a better airport in the snow than most others id believe. 

Well, it's got a really long runway so you're less likely to slide off it. 

[Prismshine Productions]

We're flying out of BGR direct to Daytona Thursday at 10:30am, might be a tad hairy, but BGR is a better airport in the snow than most others id believe. 

Damn, going down for the 500? You lucky mofo

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[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This reflectivity depiction looks remarkably similar to what we just had this past Saturday/Sunday. (no idea if the 500mb is similar though)

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like an inch … maybe 2 at most to ice to slot 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like an inch … maybe 2 at most to ice to slot 

Yep, weak sauce.

[Prismshine Productions]

This reflectivity looks remarkably similar to what we just had this past Saturday/Sunday. (no idea if the 500mb is similar though)

I'll take 2

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[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like an inch … maybe 2 at most to ice to slot 

Most of us will get above 32 I think. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Most of us will get above 32 I think. 

Yeah most likely, if I hit one inch that would be a miracle...

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[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Most of us will get above 32 I think. 

Prob not until precip is all done over interior...looks like a fast slot.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd pay close attn there tomorrow night. NAM has a real strong fronto sig there despite the lack luster QPF. I still would not be shocked if snow kisses to BDR-FMH corridor.

I could see MV scoring a couple..700 fronto does look strong. 

[H2Otown_WX]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs works but it’s the snowiest. Not sure that will be realistic.

I don't think the GFS is worth using at this point. It's been horrific all winter with overdoing QPF and it tried to give us a KU last month.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I don't think the GFS is worth using at this point. It's been horrific all winter with overdoing QPF and it tried to give us a KU last month.

They’re all bad. Buyer beware.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, morale of the story is that they were both nuciance variety inconveniences that sucked.

A nuisance with inconvenient timing for commute, school drop off etc.  yay

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

They’re all bad. Buyer beware.

Correct!!..they all are...

[dryslot]

Every last one of them, Just stick with bad ones for now and toss the terrible ones.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A nuisance with inconvenient timing for commute, school drop off etc.  yay

 

Back in the day no one cared because it was expected that there was going to be bad weather during winter. Certainly, schools would not have been closed like they were last Thursday

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

They’re all bad. Buyer beware.

True, I can’t say any one model has been dead nuts

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

Back in the day no one cared because it was expected that there was going to be bad weather during winter. Certainly, schools would not have been closed like they were last Thursday

Yeah, I'm assuming schools won't cancel Thursday, just a pain if we get 2" followed by freezing rain.  Probably a two hour delay though out here if that happens.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

True, I can’t say any one model has been dead nuts

Euro AI?  Certainly not dead nuts..but better than most?  Or no? 

[tamarack]

32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Well, it's got a really long runway so you're less likely to slide off it. 

Long enough to have landed the space shuttle.  In the early 1980s a couple of co-workers (one a private pilot) were flying back to BGR after a forestry conference in NM and there was a wicked crosswind.  The jet hit a bit hard and bounced, that wind caught and lifted the right wing, and the airplane was significantly tilted.  The private pilot thought "here we go!" but the crew up front realized they had another 10,000 feet of runway, plenty of time to juice the jets and stabilize the craft without needing a go-around.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

A nuisance with inconvenient timing for commute, school drop off etc.  yay

Exactly.

[dryslot]

12z GFS little more robust with the qpf on Thursday, 0.50"+ or so.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

Back in the day there were more of those types of storms..people got spoiled by the  storms that produced a lot of snowfall. 

[UnitedWx]

29 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I don't think the GFS is worth using at this point. It's been horrific all winter with overdoing QPF and it tried to give us a KU last month.

It isn't just the GFS...

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS little more robust with the qpf on Thursday, 0.50"+ or so.

looks like 4 to 6 or so we take

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is def juicier but don’t buy it until there’s more support. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

It isn't just the GFS...

If my memory is serving me well, at one point it had 50's and 60's for last Thursday...

[Kitz Craver]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Euro AI?  Certainly not dead nuts..but better than most?  Or no? 

It has been decent

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is def juicier but don’t buy it until there’s more support. 

It’ll juice until the day of and then cut and slash 

[UnitedWx]

15 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Long enough to have landed the space shuttle.  In the early 1980s a couple of co-workers (one a private pilot) were flying back to BGR after a forestry conference in NM and there was a wicked crosswind.  The jet hit a bit hard and bounced, that wind caught and lifted the right wing, and the airplane was significantly tilted.  The private pilot thought "here we go!" but the crew up front realized they had another 10,000 feet of runway, plenty of time to juice the jets and stabilize the craft without needing a go-around.

Well non stabilized approach, you're ALWAYS supposed to go around. I don't want to fly with those pilots!