mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:47 PM 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Unless this moves east in the final few days, take the under on 4-8….it’s like 0.3-0.5 QPF and then dryslot. Primary a couple days ago was going through PIT and dying around ROC/SYR, but now it’s going up through CLE and dying near Toronto. We don’t get that healthier and more dynamic WCB when it’s that far west. Still time to revert to its original form. But we’d have to see that by tomorrow I’d think. Wpc was still fairly honky overnight. .3-.5 is still a decent pack adding storm. maybe we need a thread for next weekend. It’s a week out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 03:56 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:56 PM I think the GFS will be a hair better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 04:00 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:00 PM Colder at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 04:03 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:03 PM Definite increase in snow amounts compared to 06z or 00z. Brings snow further south as well. Let's see if anything else can support it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Sunday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:06 PM Looks good for all frozen along the typical 84 line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted Sunday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:06 PM 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Definite increase in snow amounts compared to 06z or 00z. Brings snow further south as well. Let's see if anything else can support it Real cold run. Interior doesn't even sniff upper 20s. Hopefully see the euro cool off a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 04:08 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:08 PM ICON is doable as well. But I don't put any stock in that... I figured ineedweenies will post about it soon anyway 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Sunday at 04:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:11 PM This is for Thursday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted Sunday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:12 PM Gfs looks good, general 2-4/3-6 type deal before going over to a mix then dry slot as the low tracks to our west. It’s the same general setup though as our last 2 systems, the question is will it be more like this one or the one last Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:13 PM GFS looks a little colder, maybe we can get a few inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:16 PM Been a subtle shift east so far at 12z. That’s a trend we want to see if we want better dynamics. Still kind of meh on most guidance thus far but a little better than what we saw yesterday and last night Primary is a little southeast of that CLE to Toronto line now…more like BUF to ART. Nudge that a little more and maybe we can go thumpy thumpy on the front end. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:40 PM 29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This is for Thursday? Yep. Weds night/Thursday. Feb 12/13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 04:41 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:41 PM 28 minutes ago, George001 said: Gfs looks good, general 2-4/3-6 type deal before going over to a mix then dry slot as the low tracks to our west. It’s the same general setup though as our last 2 systems, the question is will it be more like this one or the one last Thursday? I would lean a blend of the two right now. More snow than last week. Less than last night. More mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:44 PM This looks colder than last Thursday. Still not sold on much precip unless we can subtly continue nudging this east. GGEM and GFS did so at 12z…we’ll see if euro bites. But absent that shift east, it’s prob like a 1-3/2-4 type deal on the front end followed by some IP/ZR and then dryslot. Maybe up north gets a little more where they don’t flip to pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superETA Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM What are we thinking for an 8-9 AM commute? I’m going west from Rhode Island into Norwich CT. Not sure how good they are over there with clearing their roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:22 PM UK brings decent snows here on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:23 PM 1 minute ago, superETA said: What are we thinking for an 8-9 AM commute? I’m going west from Rhode Island into Norwich CT. Not sure how good they are over there with clearing their roads. I'm thinking sloppy but drivable. Leave extra time and fill up washer fluid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:37 PM No eastward bump on euro. Primary actually goes west of CLE. Still quite cold but very paltry on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This looks colder than last Thursday. Still not sold on much precip unless we can subtly continue nudging this east. GGEM and GFS did so at 12z…we’ll see if euro bites. But absent that shift east, it’s prob like a 1-3/2-4 type deal on the front end followed by some IP/ZR and then dryslot. Maybe up north gets a little more where they don’t flip to pellets. That would certainly solidify the pack at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Yep. Light stuff 1-3" maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Sunday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:25 PM 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No eastward bump on euro. Primary actually goes west of CLE. Still quite cold but very paltry on precip. Just not playing ball with any of these upcoming threats in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted Sunday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:01 PM 34 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Just not playing ball with any of these upcoming threats in general At least the ones after warm sector us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:38 PM Call me a weenie but I have a gut feeling the Euro is too warm and amped for next weekend. This doesn't look like a lakes cutter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:36 PM Rgem and Icon look pretty thumpy at 18z for Thursday. But clown range for those models. Icon especially since it gets a secondary going a bit quicker. You want to see secondary reflection sooner to help with inflow and better dynamics. Otherwise it’s a 3-4 hour burst of WAA precip and dryslot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Rgem and Icon look pretty thumpy at 18z for Thursday. But clown range for those models. Icon especially since it gets a secondary going a bit quicker. You want to see secondary reflection sooner to help with inflow and better dynamics. Otherwise it’s a 3-4 hour burst of WAA precip and dryslot. That’s a good spot for that high on the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:10 PM Something I've noticed about any guidance from the Canadian species ...they just can't ever have ZR in the artistry of the chart cinemas. It's either snow, or a 300 mi wide sleet swath than rain through the event cross-section Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM Gfs is a decent front end before sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:20 PM 3 hours ago, Kitz Craver said: Just not playing ball with any of these upcoming threats in general Seems to be a common theme with this model this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted Sunday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:23 PM 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Rgem and Icon look pretty thumpy at 18z for Thursday. But clown range for those models. Icon especially since it gets a secondary going a bit quicker. You want to see secondary reflection sooner to help with inflow and better dynamics. Otherwise it’s a 3-4 hour burst of WAA precip and dryslot. Well doesn't that sound familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:44 AM 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs is a decent front end before sleet. Yeah... I wouldn't say no to that. I do wish it wasn't alone in that depiction among the more solid players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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