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Feb 12/13 2025 Wintry Mix


HoarfrostHubb
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yeah that’s interesting 

the icon’s doing something vaguely similar with this one and the weekend for that matter. it’s opening up these odd gaps in the qpf. 

it’s as tho the cloud layers were over seeded - like ‘hole punch’ phenomenon at synoptic scales 

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I've noticed over the years that the nam occasionally has weird precip issues that look to be more of a software bug than valid output, albeit with its own caveats.

If look at all the other model parameters there they aren't discontinuous run to run in the same way that precip is.

 

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34 minutes ago, radarman said:

I've noticed over the years that the nam occasionally has weird precip issues that look to be more of a software bug than valid output, albeit with its own caveats.

If look at all the other model parameters there they aren't discontinuous run to run in the same way that precip is.

 

Was thinking the same thing.  The low placement doesn't move far, like at all, yet the precip orientation is completely different.

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The forcing is just so far west in this. Really nothing to produce good precip. It’s basically a short period of light snow followed by a few pingers and maybe some light ZR over interior…dryslot and maybe some rotting 30s before FROPA. The primary is actually going to end up going pretty close to DTW and then solidly west of Lake Ontario…even further west than the CLE to Toronto track from a couple days ago….which is already going too far west…if you recall, I said we want the primary more in that ERI-BUF-ROC corridor for good dynamics and a front end thump here. We’re so far west of that now that even 1-2” will be a stretch…there’s just not much forcing when you track the main vort so far west. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The forcing is just so far west in this. Really nothing to produce good precip. It’s basically a short period of light snow followed by a few pingers and maybe some light ZR over interior…dryslot and maybe some rotting 30s before FROPA. The primary is actually going to end up going pretty close to DTW and then solidly west of Lake Ontario…even further west than the CLE to Toronto track from a couple days ago….which is already going too far west…if you recall, I said we want the primary more in that ERI-BUF-ROC corridor for good dynamics and a front end thump here. We’re so far west of that now that even 1-2” will be a stretch…there’s just not much forcing when you track the main vort so far west. 

Sort of caught in between because the good juice is with the secondary and we lack a thermal gradient north of it.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The forcing is just so far west in this. Really nothing to produce good precip. It’s basically a short period of light snow followed by a few pingers and maybe some light ZR over interior…dryslot and maybe some rotting 30s before FROPA. The primary is actually going to end up going pretty close to DTW and then solidly west of Lake Ontario…even further west than the CLE to Toronto track from a couple days ago….which is already going too far west…if you recall, I said we want the primary more in that ERI-BUF-ROC corridor for good dynamics and a front end thump here. We’re so far west of that now that even 1-2” will be a stretch…there’s just not much forcing when you track the main vort so far west. 

A bummer but this one is just a nuisance.  Eggs transferred to Sunday basket 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is awfully close for a quick 2-3” fluff job from BDR to FMH. Maybe even a tad north of that.  It’s hard to ignore the strong fronto signal for a few hours there.

Really gotta watch the Cape. It almost tilts a little ENE and maybe they can get into the goodies for a few hours. Gonna be close but Bruce Willis is lurking with those 850 vectors. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is most of region going to lose their snowpack on Thursday?

No we don’t truly warm sector…though after the CAD mixes out it could get pretty mushy for 6-8 hours. 

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