CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nam cancels Thursday lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 what a model LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam cancels Thursday lol Enjoy your rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 RIP to any snow on the 18Z EC + 00Z NAMs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 10 minutes ago, cardinalland said: what a model LOL good ole reliable and consistent NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam cancels Thursday lol 26 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: RIP to any snow on the 18Z EC + 00Z NAMs Please be right...pass on an inch of glop during the commute. I'd just assume wash my balls in a sink full of nitroglycerin. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The next 7 days aren't very snowy on the Euro...it was out in clown range that it got snowy again. Clown range or not, that is viable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 yeah that’s interesting the icon’s doing something vaguely similar with this one and the weekend for that matter. it’s opening up these odd gaps in the qpf. it’s as tho the cloud layers were over seeded - like ‘hole punch’ phenomenon at synoptic scales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Absolute dung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Still holding out hope the GFS has a clue. Would be a net gain here. The window is closing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Snow to ice to drizzle to slot . 1-2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6z Euro bumped up qpf here.. looks like 1 to 2 then zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 She gone, fully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snow to ice to drizzle to slot . 1-2” 1-2” might be pushing it. Might just be a C-1, then sleet and a little ZR before the slot over the interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 hours ago, cardinalland said: what a model LOL NAM picking up on all the flatulence from all the superbowl parties warming the lower levels... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I've noticed over the years that the nam occasionally has weird precip issues that look to be more of a software bug than valid output, albeit with its own caveats. If look at all the other model parameters there they aren't discontinuous run to run in the same way that precip is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 34 minutes ago, radarman said: I've noticed over the years that the nam occasionally has weird precip issues that look to be more of a software bug than valid output, albeit with its own caveats. If look at all the other model parameters there they aren't discontinuous run to run in the same way that precip is. Was thinking the same thing. The low placement doesn't move far, like at all, yet the precip orientation is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The forcing is just so far west in this. Really nothing to produce good precip. It’s basically a short period of light snow followed by a few pingers and maybe some light ZR over interior…dryslot and maybe some rotting 30s before FROPA. The primary is actually going to end up going pretty close to DTW and then solidly west of Lake Ontario…even further west than the CLE to Toronto track from a couple days ago….which is already going too far west…if you recall, I said we want the primary more in that ERI-BUF-ROC corridor for good dynamics and a front end thump here. We’re so far west of that now that even 1-2” will be a stretch…there’s just not much forcing when you track the main vort so far west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The forcing is just so far west in this. Really nothing to produce good precip. It’s basically a short period of light snow followed by a few pingers and maybe some light ZR over interior…dryslot and maybe some rotting 30s before FROPA. The primary is actually going to end up going pretty close to DTW and then solidly west of Lake Ontario…even further west than the CLE to Toronto track from a couple days ago….which is already going too far west…if you recall, I said we want the primary more in that ERI-BUF-ROC corridor for good dynamics and a front end thump here. We’re so far west of that now that even 1-2” will be a stretch…there’s just not much forcing when you track the main vort so far west. Sort of caught in between because the good juice is with the secondary and we lack a thermal gradient north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The forcing is just so far west in this. Really nothing to produce good precip. It’s basically a short period of light snow followed by a few pingers and maybe some light ZR over interior…dryslot and maybe some rotting 30s before FROPA. The primary is actually going to end up going pretty close to DTW and then solidly west of Lake Ontario…even further west than the CLE to Toronto track from a couple days ago….which is already going too far west…if you recall, I said we want the primary more in that ERI-BUF-ROC corridor for good dynamics and a front end thump here. We’re so far west of that now that even 1-2” will be a stretch…there’s just not much forcing when you track the main vort so far west. A bummer but this one is just a nuisance. Eggs transferred to Sunday basket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAM is awfully close for a quick 2-3” fluff job from BDR to FMH. Maybe even a tad north of that. It’s hard to ignore the strong fronto signal for a few hours there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is awfully close for a quick 2-3” fluff job from BDR to FMH. Maybe even a tad north of that. It’s hard to ignore the strong fronto signal for a few hours there. Really gotta watch the Cape. It almost tilts a little ENE and maybe they can get into the goodies for a few hours. Gonna be close but Bruce Willis is lurking with those 850 vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Really gotta watch the Cape. It almost tilts a little ENE and maybe they can get into the goodies for a few hours. Gonna be close but Bruce Willis is lurking with those 850 vectors. What a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12z Nam is a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Yup. Cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3k is probably 1-2” of SN/IP up here with some ZR on top before a little plain rain to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12z 3K Nam looked better for CNE/NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Is most of region going to lose their snowpack on Thursday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is most of region going to lose their snowpack on Thursday? No we don’t truly warm sector…though after the CAD mixes out it could get pretty mushy for 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The system moving south of us tonight did come north but not far enough unless you live on the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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