Feb 12/13 2025 Wintry Mix

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah... I wouldn't say no to that.  I do wish it wasn't alone in that depiction among the more solid players   

18z Euro was thumpier and better 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs has a decent thump. 

[Sn0waddict]

RGEM was quite nice too

[DavisStraight]

32 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

RGEM was quite nice too

Good thump before it changes to sleet/rain.

[HoarfrostHubb]

06z GFS continues to give advisory levels snows to parts of SNE before changing

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

06z GFS continues to give advisory levels snows to parts of SNE before changing

Pike north Lol

[Kitz Craver]

53 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Pike north Lol

Nah GFS has a thump to slot/freezing drizzle for SNE

[Kitz Craver]

Obviously “thump” in quotations, lol. Haven’t really had a true thump yet. 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs works but it’s the snowiest. Not sure that will be realistic.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let’s weaken that primary sooner and have secondary take over.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully can keep it below freezing thruout 

[HoarfrostHubb]

ICON shoots above freezing towards the end of the precip, but the amount is very paltry... barely even nuisance level

[mahk_webstah]

Best case this close in is big thump for all. 6” where it is all snow and 2-4 sne ending with preserving crust

[40/70 Benchmark]

This remainds me of alot of that Sunday night, Feb 2 event.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This remainds me of alot of that Sunday night, Feb 2 event.

2/6 last Thursday might be the best match....a little colder maybe but similar paltry QPF and paltry dynamics....unless we get a bit more shift eastward.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/6 last Thursday might be the best match....a little colder maybe but similar paltry QPF and paltry dynamics....unless we get a bit more shift eastward.

I don't want to go all Wankum, but with it mostly happening at night, will that help at all?    

[dryslot]

Thursday looks meh.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I don't want to go all Wankum, but with it mostly happening at night, will that help at all?    

Help with what? accumulations? Limiting factor is QPF, not cold. Maybe it helps marginally during light rates.

[dryslot]

The secondary really never gets going so far on the models which makes this paltry on qpf and keeps the airmass marginal with that strong primary that far to the west.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The secondary really never gets going so far on the models which makes this paltry on qpf and keeps the airmass marginal with that strong primary that far to the west.

It has that stuck between 2 areas of forcing look here. Primary too far west and secondary too far SE. A mid week nuisance stat padder. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/6 last Thursday might be the best match....a little colder maybe but similar paltry QPF and paltry dynamics....unless we get a bit more shift eastward.

Yea, morale of the story is that they were both nuciance variety inconveniences that sucked.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It has that stuck between 2 areas of forcing look here. Primary too far west and secondary too far SE. A mid week nuisance stat padder. 

Yes, And it looks like were caught in between, Need the secondary to take over and sooner rather then later.

[Kitz Craver]

My P&C must be weighing the GFS heavily, still has 5.5” of snow by Thursday 

[SouthCoastMA]

Losing Tuesday was brutal down here. Maybe an inch on front end Thursday if lucky, while Sunday looks like shite. Hopefully something like the 6z Euro-AI pans out for next week and beyond. 

[Typhoon Tip]

This is pretty well set as a minoring snow to mix to crud while waiting for a polar boundary to swoop back through and sinter whatever it is that's on the ground - some of which might rapid melt if there is a 42-ish temp burst for awhile as the front first comes through and CAA is typically lagged by a little.

System is ultimately weak, and ultimately moving too fast to really be much of an impact beyond that pedestrian sort of inconvenience.   Also, like the last couple of events in this ludicrous speed flow, it will probably also attenuate if not just fail QPF realization by some 20 or 30%  -  

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Losing Tuesday was brutal down here. Maybe an inch on front end Thursday if lucky, while Sunday looks like shite. Hopefully something like the 6z Euro-AI pans out for next week and beyond. 

I'd pay close attn there tomorrow night. NAM has a real strong fronto sig there despite the lack luster QPF. I still would not be shocked if snow kisses to BDR-FMH corridor.

[CoastalWx]

NAM going to be a little warmer I think.

[MJO812]

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Thursday looks meh.

Hope so, as my wife is scheduled to fly home from FL (visiting her sister there) on Thursday.  Morning AFD from GYX has the storm a bit earlier than previous discussions, snow mostly done by early afternoon.  Her flight is scheduled to land at BGR about 5 PM, which probably would be okay, unless that airplane is doing 2 St. Pete/BGR cycles (don't think so), which would mean a BGR takeoff about 9 AM on cycle #1.
Another low-QPF fluff event would be fine.  

[TheMainer]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Hope so, as my wife is scheduled to fly home from FL (visiting her sister there) on Thursday.  Morning AFD from GYX has the storm a bit earlier than previous discussions, snow mostly done by early afternoon.  Her flight is scheduled to land at BGR about 5 PM, which probably would be okay, unless that airplane is doing 2 St. Pete/BGR cycles (don't think so), which would mean a BGR takeoff about 9 AM on cycle #1.
Another low-QPF fluff event would be fine.  

We're flying out of BGR direct to Daytona Thursday at 10:30am, might be a tad hairy, but BGR is a better airport in the snow than most others id believe.