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Feb 12/13 2025 Wintry Mix


HoarfrostHubb
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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Siggy interior ice 

Not sure the QPF is gonna be there unless we trend that vort back east just a bit. It’s like half an inch of QPF (or even less on some guidance). 
 

But if we trend the vort back east a bit more, then we end up with a larger/snowier thump. The orientation of the high and redeveloping low isn’t ideal for prolonged big icing. There will def be some ZR but then we dryslot pretty quickly. 
 

 

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24 minutes ago, George001 said:

Question, would the 18z gfs solution for this storm be considered a cutter, miller b or something else? People are calling it a cutter on another board im on, but when I think of cutters I think of what the Euro has for the 20th. Low plowing into the lakes with no secondary redevelopment. 

It’s basically a cutter but with CAD/redevelopment so we never warm sector. 

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18z euro looked a little thumpier down into CT this run…still not a big system but maybe advisory snows before a flip to IP/ZR and a quick dryslot. Keep an eye on that main vort…if that can trend just a shade east, prob would increase snowfall non-linearly. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro looked a little thumpier down into CT this run…still not a big system but maybe advisory snows before a flip to IP/ZR and a quick dryslot. Keep an eye on that main vort…if that can trend just a shade east, prob would increase snowfall non-linearly. 

Interesting the 12th is trending NW

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_29.png

ecmwf_apcpn24_neus_25.png

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5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro looked a little thumpier down into CT this run…still not a big system but maybe advisory snows before a flip to IP/ZR and a quick dryslot. Keep an eye on that main vort…if that can trend just a shade east, prob would increase snowfall non-linearly. 

And now 00z back to being much warmer. This one has been tough on guidance. 

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I think there are some confusion about this thread. It is for the Wednesday night Thursday not the Tuesday thing. I’m hoping we will get some clarity later this afternoon on what this looks like. For about five or six days it’s looked like maybe a 4 to 8 inch storm up this way at least. Not sure if it’s still there in that form. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One thing for certain.. no big snowstorms this winter. Maybe a few lucky bands but this is the year of the meat grinder coming east 

Decaying big block should produce KU in next couple weeks.  I’m just repeating what others have said but it certainly makes sense. This is a good pattern for getting snow in different ways. Right now we’re in the 07-08 phase which is painful at times for people south of the New Hampshire border, but very productive up here.

I would think the pattern would shift in your favor in a week or so

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26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Decaying big block should produce KU in next couple weeks.  I’m just repeating what others have said but it certainly makes sense. This is a good pattern for getting snow in different ways. Right now we’re in the 07-08 phase which is painful at times for people south of the New Hampshire border, but very productive up here.

I would think the pattern would shift in your favor in a week or so

Not sure it’s a KU look

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35 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think there are some confusion about this thread. It is for the Wednesday night Thursday not the Tuesday thing. I’m hoping we will get some clarity later this afternoon on what this looks like. For about five or six days it’s looked like maybe a 4 to 8 inch storm up this way at least. Not sure if it’s still there in that form. 

Unless this moves east in the final few days, take the under on 4-8….it’s like 0.3-0.5 QPF and then dryslot. Primary a couple days ago was going through PIT and dying around ROC/SYR, but now it’s going up through CLE and dying near Toronto. We don’t get that healthier and more dynamic WCB when it’s that far west. 

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