ILSNOW Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18Z Euro slightly drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18Z Euro slightly drier I noticed that. It's drier one run then wetter the next. Hoping for at least 6in. My biggest snow this year has been 1.3in. Hoping we won't start seeing qpf downfall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Hmmm, maybe should have stuck to my original 4-6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It’s been a pretty clear move drier in the OP models the past couple cycles. This latest move is more exaggerated than the others. It’s ultimately not that surprising and reinforces the need to rely on the lake for bigger totals 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 17 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18Z Euro slightly drier The National Weather Service in Iowa must be tossing the Euro because parts of western iowa with no advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Hmmm, maybe should have stuck to my original 4-6" 4-6” is what looks most probable from you to me and everywhere in between. Probably some isolated 8” spots - unless we keep drying out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Nice shift on the 18z Euro for some of us in the Detroit Metro. The SE trends may now start to begin as even the 18z EPS ticked SE quite a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: The National Weather Service in Iowa must be tossing the Euro because parts of western iowa with no advisories. I forgot what office mentioned it in their AFD, but the majority AFO’s are favoring the NAM as it’s historically better with these types of systems on predicting the WAA. Ultimately, they are expecting the warm air to push further north than what the other global guidance is showing. All while my local office mentions this “low track is favorable for a classic CWA wide warning snowfall” (except for Calhoun & Jackson counties of course, but to hell with them, IWX or DTX can have them) lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Nice shift on the 18z Euro for some of us in the Detroit Metro. The SE trends may now start to begin as even the 18z EPS ticked SE quite a bit. And cut QPF by a solid 0.1-0.15” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z EPS 10:1 Mean - will likely end up 15:1 or a little better further NW. 18z RGEM 10:1 getting Detroit back into the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Ratios will be everything with this system. Pretty impressive when it nearly doubles totals. 18z Euro 10:1 vs. 18z Euro Kuchera Ratio (also note the higher totals for DTX on 10:1 vs Kuchera and the limited but notable lake enhancement from Milwaukee down to the southern ORD burbs.) Detroit concrete special incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 51 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: I forgot what office mentioned it in their AFD, but the majority AFO’s are favoring the NAM as it’s historically better with these types of systems on predicting the WAA. Ultimately, they are expecting the warm air to push further north than what the other global guidance is showing. All while my local office mentions this “low track is favorable for a classic CWA wide warning snowfall” (except for Calhoun & Jackson counties of course, but to hell with them, IWX or DTX can have them) lol. Lmao. What fools would pick the NAM. Especially when it's not fully sampled and the NAM injested bad data. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gefs ensembles have some good members. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 23 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Gefs ensembles have some good members. Man some of those really suck too for the southern/eastern Michigan side. Chicago is the place to be no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 hours ago, Harry Perry said: I forgot what office mentioned it in their AFD, but the majority AFO’s are favoring the NAM as it’s historically better with these types of systems on predicting the WAA. Ultimately, they are expecting the warm air to push further north than what the other global guidance is showing. All while my local office mentions this “low track is favorable for a classic CWA wide warning snowfall” (except for Calhoun & Jackson counties of course, but to hell with them, IWX or DTX can have them) lol. Same old frustrations with that office for Calhoun cnty Its only slighty less so for me up here. Their northern tier has a 6+ event and they can't produce a map, just a one line statement, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 0z NAM coming in a bit SE and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Same old frustrations with that office for Calhoun cnty Its only slighty less so for me up here. Their northern tier has a 6+ event and they can't produce a map, just a one line statement, lol. Yeah, I wouldn’t make a map either. Contradicts their verbiage lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3K NAM is rough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Considering the nam issues I'd not take much stock in it, it literally has the snow plume self destruct lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Well I hope this isn't a start of a trend of weaker and drier but would fit trends for this winter. How depressing. This looked solid for days. What's odd is both nams and hrrr show hrs of accumulating snow but just doesn't seem to put out much snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Well I hope this isn't a start of a trend of weaker and drier but would fit trends for this winter. How depressing. This looked solid for days. I wouldn’t put much stock into the NAM quite yet, especially with that disorganized look. Just doesn’t make sense, almost like it took in bad data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Well I hope this isn't a start of a trend of weaker and drier but would fit trends for this winter. How depressing. This looked solid for days. What's odd is both nams and hrrr show hrs of accumulating snow but just doesn't seem to put out much snowfall. The trend started about 12-18 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 About to go back to my 4"-7" call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, mimillman said: The trend started about 12-18 hours ago Arguably weaker and drier has been a trend all winter, but otherwise agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: I wouldn’t put much stock into the NAM quite yet, especially with that disorganized look. Just doesn’t make sense, almost like it took in bad data. It's definitely odd but guess we will see what rest of 0z shows Just now, mimillman said: The trend started about 12-18 hours ago I usually don't put much stock in 18z runs because no new data is input into model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: It's definitely odd but guess we will see what rest of 0z shows I usually don't put much stock in 18z runs because no new data is input into model I think that’s a thing of the past. Pretty sure 18z runs especially at this range are as good as anything. There’s no change for me to my call of 5-8” with locally 10” in best lake enhancement. You tend to see a drying trend especially with these less dynamic systems around 48-60 hours from an event. If you look to the east in northern Virginia and DCA, exactly this happened before gradually adding back some moisture in the past 12 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, mimillman said: I think that’s a thing of the past. Pretty sure 18z runs especially at this range are as good as anything. There’s no change for me to my call of 5-8” with locally 10” in best lake enhancement. You tend to see a drying trend especially with these less dynamic systems around 48-60 hours from an event. If you look to the east in northern Virginia and DCA, exactly this happened before gradually adding back some moisture in the past 12 hours. Would be fitting for this winter. Thought we were finally going to catch a break. Apparently not. Watches will be getting downgraded to advisories if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Guys don't freak out over one crappy nam run this far out lmao 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Guys don't freak out over one crappy nam run this far out lmao Well RGEM followed nam so yeah. Definitely doesn't have me feeling good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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