sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8.3” final call. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 30 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Everyone’s favorite SREF plumes. One member has 48° so bit of an exaggeration on my end. Actually quite a few in the 40-45° range though. Granted, watching these models at 72 out hell even 3 hours out is normally comical. I haven't looked at the SREF in a couple years now. They were more comical than useful for snow IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Expecting watches hoisted with afternoon AFD. I’ll go widespread 5-8” as final call with 10” lollipops where lake enhancement wins. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Talk about an I70 screw hole on these models, with both systems yanking NW no less. Then theres a strong signal for suppression following this week. Like the Chiefs last night I punt this shit lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: 8.3” final call. Oof… I shoulda looked at GEFS first. Congrats Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 apparently the 12z run of the NAM did not ingest upper-air data properly, per https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/status/. messages/ so I wouldn't put much stock in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 What a crazy cut off on the 12z Canadian. Basically nothing at the airport but 15 inches like 75-100 miles nw. Canadian almost a perfect track for this area. Gfs definitly on the weaker side and hard to go against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, nvck said: apparently the 12z run of the NAM did not ingest upper-air data properly, per https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/status/. messages/ so I wouldn't put much stock in it. Not sure if that hurts or helps the NAM. Terrible model really. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Not sure if that hurts or helps the NAM. Terrible model really. Yeah, it doesn’t matter what it ingests. It still causes it to take a dump later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Not sure if that hurts or helps the NAM. Terrible model really. might explain why it's been so high on the OV storm tomorrow, and dumping 3-4" over cincy where other models have 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z UKie still farther southeast and weaker. Uncle not yet drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z UKie still farther southeast and weaker. Uncle not yet drunk. I think a blend of the nw rgem/euro and se gfs/ukie, low track from evansville to cedar point, is the good guess at this point. South bend through the thumb jackpot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I think a blend of the nw rgem/euro and se gfs/ukie, low track from evansville to cedar point, is the good guess at this point. South bend through the thumb jackpot. Cedar Point is the best case scenario for me that is for sure for this type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, Lightning said: Cedar Point is the best case scenario for me that is for sure for this type of storm. On these SW to NE moving lows, we pretty much need the same track. Maybe more toward Toledo would be best here but what’s a few miles in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, roardog said: On these SW to NE moving lows, we pretty much need the same track. Maybe more toward Toledo would be best here but what’s a few miles in the end. It's funny I have the landmark places all picked out where I need to low to go with the various types of storms. Toledo wouldn't be bad for me either; it just puts me on the southern edge of the defo band (great reward comes with great risk ). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Not much change on the 12Z Euro. Maybe a slight tick weaker. Low tracks just east of Port Huron. It does show about a half inch of freezing rain around Detroit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 22 minutes ago, Lightning said: Cedar Point is the best case scenario for me that is for sure for this type of storm. Historically I would take your location over mine any winter. You're definitly in a better spot for this one but long ways to go and from experience never good to be in jackpot area 48-60 hrs out. Also I don't trust the euro at all these days so gonna be fun to track this one rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: It's funny I have the landmark places all picked out where I need to low to go with the various types of storms. Toledo wouldn't be bad for me either; it just puts me on the southern edge of the defo band (great reward comes with great risk ). It’s like in the summer with an MCS. I need to see storms around Green Bay if I’m going to feel confident with getting anything other than some sprinkles. Most of the time though, they’re firing around Milwaukee which is a no go for here with the inevitable dive SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, roardog said: Not much change on the 12Z Euro. Maybe a slight tick weaker. Low tracks just east of Port Huron. It does show about a half inch of freezing rain around Detroit though. Euro is more of a left leaner right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Historically I would take your location over mine any winter. You're definitly in a better spot for this one but long ways to go and from experience never good to be in jackpot area 48-60 hrs out. Yes that was very true especially in the 2000-2015ish era. I would like to note that some time after 2015 there were some significant model updates that seemed to kill off the significant NW trend we used to see. Now it seems there are some NW trends and some SE trends and some that pretty much stay the same. Not saying this one is set in stone at all rather the overwhelming NW trend we used to experience is not what it used to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 If this falls apart for the Chicago area, you guys can blame me. I had spinal surgery in December and am still not allowed to lift more than 5-10lbs. So I can't shovel a heavy snow and don't think I'll be out there every 45 minutes either. Needless to say, took the snowblower out for the first time in ages.....so it might be all over now. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, roardog said: It’s like in the summer with an MCS. I need to see storms around Green Bay if I’m going to feel confident with getting anything other than some sprinkles. Most of the time though, they’re firing around Milwaukee which is a no go for here with the inevitable dive SE. Ha. Sheboygan WI for me for MCS. Milwaukee seems to always head down to AA then into DTW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: If this falls apart for the Chicago area, you guys can blame me. I had spinal surgery in December and am still not allowed to lift more than 5-10lbs. So I can't shovel a heavy snow and don't think I'll be out there every 45 minutes either. Needless to say, took the snowblower out for the first time in ages.....so it might be all over now. I knew it! In all seriousness though I hope you’re doing well and healing up. Spinal surgery is no joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 when was the last 6" event at ORD? 8"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Baum said: when was the last 6" event at ORD? 8"? Last one downtown I believe was Feb 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 when was the last 6" event at ORD? 8"?Last 6”+ event: Jan 12-13th, 2024. (6.7”)Last 8”+ event: Jan 30-31st, 2021. (10.8”) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Last 6”+ event: Jan 12-13th, 2024. (6.7”) Last 8”+ event: Jan 30-31st, 2021. (10.8”) yeah.that one last year was a bit deceptive as I recall. Got thumped the by warm air wing and screwed on the defo band as temps rose above freezing. Been a while since we've had a straight on solid wall to wall snow event . Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro was a touch southeast but not really any weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Euro was a touch southeast but not really any weaker 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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