Stebo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We can stop with the shifting NW, like nothing has all winter and now we get a potential storm and its rocketing NW. I don't want an ice storm nor do I want cold rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 27 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Pretty much everything at 6z ticked northwest. GFS closer to everyone else now. 6z NAM has the left turn blinker stuck in the on position, doing 95 mph down the Kennedy. But, nice to see an overall uptick in QPF. Just need to hold it, or get better, for 2 more days. Euro didn’t look NW at 6z but was still solid. Not complaining, sitting pretty for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Euro didn’t look NW at 6z but was still solid. Not complaining, sitting pretty for once Yeah, that's good. I didn't see it when I made that post. Was referring to the GFS, RGEM, etc. Though I guess I also kinda lied because looking at the 6z ICON and UK, they both went south/weaker. JV models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Looks p locked ini thought it dusted out? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The NW trend might bring me the first 6"+ storm I've had this winter like most. Hoping for some easterly lake enhancement too off Lake Huron.I've been lucky to nickel and dime my way to about a foot on the ground so far. Gaylord,MI has had over 150" and Alpena 40" and is only 60 miles west out of the lake effect zone.Been riding my sled each day for about 3 weeks now so can't complain too much. Will be nice tho to not dig down into grass and gravel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: We can stop with the shifting NW, like nothing has all winter and now we get a potential storm and its rocketing NW. I don't want an ice storm nor do I want cold rain. Agreed; I would prefer not to get ice storm either!!! The Vort at 500mb is not closing off and remain progressive. The shifting in the models seems to more related to the Vort placement. I don't think there is much further NW it can go. Of course it is the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Stebo said: We can stop with the shifting NW, like nothing has all winter and now we get a potential storm and its rocketing NW. I don't want an ice storm nor do I want cold rain. Not happy with the ice threat. Though an important piece has not been sampled and will not be sampled until tomorrow afternoon per DTX. I think the chance of cold rain is very minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Not happy with the ice threat. Though an important piece has not been sampled and will not be sampled until tomorrow afternoon per DTX. I think the chance of cold rain is very minimal. Historically and given our past in these setups I'd be worried of a more amped nw storm per the nam but with seasonal trends, it'll be interesting to watch unfold. It's been interesting to watch the models as the icon initially was the most nw and amped and now its the best for us. I'm on the fence if I'm going to catch a flight home for this. It's been 85 and sunny down here for like 15 days in a row now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Nam changes Detroit to Port Huron to plain rain as the low goes over/just slightly east of Detroit. Brings the sleet to just south of here for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 NAM is a freight train. 12z gets a little light snow up to MSP with this run. I've got like 15 miles left and its lights out. 12z 3km NAM not nearly as amped though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: NAM is a freight train. 12z gets a little light snow up to MSP with this run. I've got like 15 miles left and its lights out. 12z 3km NAM not nearly as amped though. Yeah I have a feeling the NAM is overamplified here, especially with the 3km not even remotely close to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 It does have that rep at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Historically and given our past in these setups I'd be worried of a more amped nw storm per the nam but with seasonal trends, it'll be interesting to watch unfold. It's been interesting to watch the models as the icon initially was the most nw and amped and now its the best for us. I'm on the fence if I'm going to catch a flight home for this. It's been 85 and sunny down here for like 15 days in a row now lol. Sounds absolutely disgusting. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah I have a feeling the NAM is overamplified here, especially with the 3km not even remotely close to it. I would agree. 18 hours out from the storm, the NAM will probably have a run where it takes it off the Delaware coast. Well maybe not, but you get my drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: Sounds absolutely disgusting. That’s too warm for me in July. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, roardog said: That’s too warm for me in July. Hard same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 pls no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: pls no That would the worst. You would get dry slotted so you wouldn’t even get ice storm warning criteria freezing rain. Boring. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: pls no This is so NAM like. Keeps our reality in check but at this point is an outlier. I’d expect it to settle back southeast with time. Fun fact, I never listen to them, but some WRF/NMMB members show 50°+ with plain rain for the majority of the event here, so could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Sounds absolutely disgusting. It's low humidity 85. Obviously different strokes but perfect weather to chill in the man cave garage and watch sports at night. The only thing that would've made it better is if the lions weren't choke artists and played yesterday. Icon pretty much the same, rgem is a bit more nw and sloppy mix for detroit. In this range I've noticed it on several occasions be too nw. Either way, trends aren't good for detroit. What a Rollercoaster. Models at one point for a few cycles were weaker and SE but that looks off the table now. Saginaw ftw per rgem. Brutal cutoff locally as we've seen unfortunately many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 RGEM pretty much the same as its 6z run. Shaved a little off the northern fringes, tightened the SE fringes a bit, and back to a thumb jackpot from the 0z run. 6z EPS was essentially the same, but cut back on total QPF a bit in N IL. Chicago still 0.50"-ish, but farther southwest there was a bit of a decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: RGEM pretty much the same as its 6z run. Shaved a little off the northern fringes, tightened the SE fringes a bit, and back to a thumb jackpot from the 0z run. Maybe a hair weaker overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 59 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Historically and given our past in these setups I'd be worried of a more amped nw storm per the nam but with seasonal trends, it'll be interesting to watch unfold. It's been interesting to watch the models as the icon initially was the most nw and amped and now its the best for us. I'm on the fence if I'm going to catch a flight home for this. It's been 85 and sunny down here for like 15 days in a row now lol. Ill be pissed if we get an ice storm. The models will continue to waffle until it is fully sampled tomorrow (and even then, who knows). Every storm is unique so theres literally no telling what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 28 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: This is so NAM like. Keeps our reality in check but at this point is an outlier. I’d expect it to settle back southeast with time. Fun fact, I never listen to them, but some WRF/NMMB members show 50°+ with plain rain for the majority of the event here, so could be worse Where do you see that? Literally the warmest most outlandish solution would have Detroit hit like 33-34 for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Where do you see that? Literally the warmest most outlandish solution would have Detroit hit like 33-34 for a few hours. Everyone’s favorite SREF plumes. One member has 48° so bit of an exaggeration on my end. Actually quite a few in the 40-45° range though. Granted, watching these models at 72 out hell even 3 hours out is normally comical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Where do you see that? Literally the warmest most outlandish solution would have Detroit hit like 33-34 for a few hours. SREF plumes, he is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Ill be pissed if we get an ice storm. The models will continue to waffle until it is fully sampled tomorrow (and even then, who knows). Every storm is unique so theres literally no telling what will happen. Over here I’d love 2-3” and ice just no rain. Rather ice storm instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z GFS holding serve with its more southerly path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, madwx said: 12z GFS holding serve with its more southerly path It's still the furthest south with tonight's event in the Ohio Valley though it has ticked north toward the rest of guidance. Hopefully it will begin to do the same, but it's stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 22 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Over here I’d love 2-3” and ice just no rain. Rather ice storm instead 2-3" of snow followed by some ice would be ok I guess, but I definitely want all snow. We currently have an inch of sandy textured snow on the rock hard frozen ground. So if we got at least a few inches followed by ice it would be a pretty solid base. But regardless...always root for the white gold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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