DocATL Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I haven't looked at the lake effect parameters and it's obviously still a few days out regardless, but I wouldn't get my hopes up too much. Some enhancement is certainly a possibility if not likely, but I wouldn't expect a lot as the lake has cooled quite a bit and the temp differential will be negligible. Probably more to it than temp differential but…353SXUS83 KLOT 091456OMRLOTILZ104-101600-SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURESNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL856 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES...CHICAGO SHORE...........32.CHICAGO CRIB............37.MICHIGAN CITY...........33.SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY.....40.&&M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED ATA WATER INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW THEWATER SURFACE. IT IS READ EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR.FOR LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVELS, PLEASE SEE: WWW.LRD.USACE.ARMY.MIL/WATER-INFORMATION/WATER-MANAGEMENT /GREAT-LAKES-AND-HARBORS/WATER-LEVEL-FORECASTS$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, DocATL said: Probably more to it than temp differential but… 353 SXUS83 KLOT 091456 OMRLOT ILZ104-101600- SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 856 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES... CHICAGO SHORE...........32. CHICAGO CRIB............37. MICHIGAN CITY...........33. SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY.....40. && M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE. THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED AT A WATER INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW THE WATER SURFACE. IT IS READ EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR. FOR LAKE MICHIGAN WATER LEVELS, PLEASE SEE: WWW.LRD.USACE.ARMY.MIL/WATER-INFORMATION/WATER-MANAGEMENT /GREAT-LAKES-AND-HARBORS/WATER-LEVEL-FORECASTS $$ . Yes, there are several parameters involved. Though, again, enhancement isn't as fickle since it merely involves the lake adding some extra moisture to the air (generally speaking). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 UKMET would have us believe there will be a lot of lake enhancement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, CIllinoisSnow said: 12z GFS weaker and a bit SE As is tradition 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro looks to be coming in a tick north at H75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Gonna make a stupid early call for here/QC of 4-6". Think our time is finally due. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro continues to be more generous with the moisture but the overall set up is similar. It shows a widespread 4-8” and similar to the CMC, is picking up on a local maximum in Cook and Lake counties, the result of lake enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro has been moving north the last couple of runs, at least over here. The 12Z run brings an ice storm to Toledo(around .4 inches of ice)and the far SE corner of Michigan, where as that area was mostly snow on the last run and all snow on the run before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z GEFS are better (wetter) than the OP. Good runs from the 12z EC, GGEM, and UK. Still think its a 3-5/4-6" system for most, but probably some higher lollipops in spots too. Think this will be a nice kick off to a fun upcoming pattern. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z GEFS are better (wetter) than the OP. Good runs from the 12z EC, GGEM, and UK. Still think its a 3-5/4-6" system for most, but probably some higher lollipops in spots too. Think this will be a nice kick off to a fun upcoming pattern. I agree with this. Lots of consensus on ensembles, almost a lock for much of the sub on 3-6” for several runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I was thinking 4”-7” for Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan. We seem to be in the jackpot zone right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 Shame this one dusted out Going 5.5 imby final call Stay safe out there today friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yesterday's storm had supposedly "weakened" per models right up til kick-off. In the end the better portrayal played out. Still time for this one to do similar. The more NW it cuts the better that chance imho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Yesterday's storm had supposedly "weakened" per models right up til kick-off. In the end the better portrayal played out. Still time for this one to do similar. The more NW it cuts the better that chance imho.. At least this one would be the classic moisture laden storm that covers a large area and isn’t reliant on a narrow dynamic band of snow with a razor sharp cut off that can make or break a forecast hours before it starts. I’m tired of those. lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 If only we could lock in the 18z rgem for detroit. Rain/snow line close but ya gotta smell the rain to get the goods. Good to see most models stay healthy with it today. I'd expect the gfs to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18z RGEM was really nice. Seems the canadian suite are on the "stronger" train at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 First watches hoisted for most of Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Harry Perry said: First watches hoisted for most of Kansas. It's been a minute since we've had something legit to track and usually we start tracking a week out. It doesnt feel like it's only 72 or so hours away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 You'd like to see the GFS onboard as I believe it's schooled the euro mostly lately. Gfs just keeps it a disorganized mess, 1007 low vs 999 on canadian/euro/ukmet. Perhaps it's dealing with convection issues with the moisture to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The GFS increased totals again still a solid hit for the Detroit Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, roardog said: At least this one would be the classic moisture laden storm that covers a large area and isn’t reliant on a narrow dynamic band of snow with a razor sharp cut off that can make or break a forecast hours before it starts. I’m tired of those. lol Depends on where your at lol. MBY is once again (as usual) in that razor thin cutoff zone. Its there, trust me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Shame this one dusted out definitely not. at least not yet… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 48 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Depends on where your at lol. MBY is once again (as usual) in that razor thin cutoff zone. Its there, trust me lol. I guess there’s still a cutoff but it’s a cutoff from snow to some other form of precip instead of snow to nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18Z Euro continues to move north. Ice storm for Michsnowfreak. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Big improvement for Iowa from the Euro over the last few runs. The Euro is significantly heavier through Iowa than the GFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m really scared you guys. I’m feeling something that resembles optimism. Help me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Big improvement for Iowa from the Euro over the last few runs. The Euro is significantly heavier through Iowa than the GFS. I really hope the 18z Euro verifies for Iowa. The whole state is due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I really hope the 18z Euro verifies for Iowa. The whole state is due. I'm due. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: I really hope the 18z Euro verifies for Iowa. The whole state is due. My 7" actually makes me one of Iowa's winners this winter. There are still a few spots in sw Iowa that have received ZERO measurable snow. That's nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Mother nature doesn't care who's due but if that euro run verifies, Heartbreaker. But I trust the euro the least so should be interesting next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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