AWMT30 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 NAM not in range yet for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: NAM not in range yet for the storm. sorry. that was bit of sarcasm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Baum said: sorry. that was bit of sarcasm. OMG I am so sorry man haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z ICON was still amped although slightly weaker. Still a 8”-18” wallop for many. My area would have icing/sleet issues. GFS running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18z GFS a little weaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18Z GFS blows chunks for me. Went from 4-6 to 0 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 we have some people that aren't going to make it to S-day. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Noise level changes on the GEFS all in all if you look at the past 4 runs. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Lock in the 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z gfs weaker than 18z gfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 A small difference between the ICON and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Everything on the table. 18z Euro 00z GFS 00z Canadian 00z ICON 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Take the ICON out, models peaked last night and have been slowly fading weaker and southeast. It's difficult to get deep moisture and strong forcing this far north when the lead wave pulls the surface front down to Houston and Atlanta. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z euro also weaker. Here comes the downfall. I swear if this ends up south I'm going to rip all my hair out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Death, Taxes and the 2024-25 winter sticking with the suppressed SE trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 We’re still four days out. A lot can happen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, CIllinoisSnow said: Death, Taxes and the 2024-25 winter sticking with the suppressed SE trend Our area definitely can not catch a break this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Before y'all start breaking out the guillotines look further ahead on the Euro if you need some eye candy to calm yourselves down 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 06Z is north and stronger a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Long time no see. Pretty good agreement at this point amongst the op models/ensembles for a 3-5/4-6 type system. Maybe/hopefully we can get it to juice up a bit as it gets closer. I think the next weekend deal has a taller ceiling than this first storm. And then the EPS has another potential 4-5 days after that one. Best chance the region has had for a really good stretch of snows since Feb 2022. Hope it all works out. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 20 hours ago, Frog Town said: Hasn't just about every storm this season trended SE this season about 3-5 days out. I feel like the TPV will push the pattern slightly SE, albeit not to the extent as the previous storms. Not that I'm pulling for my backyard, it's just hard to ignore seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: We’re still four days out. A lot more shitting the bed can happen. FYP 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 First real attempt by the NAM, and it's at least not taking it to Fargo. For real though, looks pretty similar to other models at this point. Kind of gives me a 12/8/2005 vibe with this system. Quick moving, but could rip pretty good for 3-5 hours outside a general 10-12 hour snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Chicago WX said: First real attempt by the NAM, and it's at least not taking it to Fargo. For real though, looks pretty similar to other models at this point. Kind of gives me a 12/8/2005 vibe with this system. Quick moving, but could rip pretty good for 3-5 hours outside a general 10-12 hour snow. If this thing could slow down and amplify a little bit, close off and go negative tilt, it's got a chance to be a biggie... Model runs last 24 hours have turned this into alot weaker storm. Guess no surprise there. It's pretty incredible how long this se/weaker trend has been going on with almost every potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z GFS weaker and a bit SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, CIllinoisSnow said: 12z GFS weaker and a bit SE Worst run yet. ICON also more in line with GFS. Canadian still looks solid. I’ll bet Euro holds and it’ll be another American vs. foreign showdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This is looking more like a widespread moderate 3-5” type event but I’m here for it. Will be the best event of the season here and a promising pattern on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 CMC was actually NW and stronger, gonna be a classic model fight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This is looking more like a widespread moderate 3-5” type event but I’m here for it. Will be the best event of the season here and a promising pattern on its heels.Exactly. I’m also more interested in the mesoscale modeling. First real synoptic event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, DocATL said: Exactly. I’m also more interested in the mesoscale modeling. First real synoptic event for us. These are set ups where lake enhancement overperforms for NE Illinois so I’m cautiously optimistic of someone pulling 6” even if moisture is relatively lacking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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