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2/12 Winter Storm


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I’m in the minority in Illinois but I’ve enjoyed the event so far from northern Boone county. 8:30-10am and currently are the heaviest it’s been, but the dry slot is creeping up.

I don’t measure, so nothing official; but based solely on what I had to walk in with my dogs, seems like there’s more on the ground than what’s reported in Rockford.

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16 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Rip city here for the past 30 minutes and still going. Flake size back to good, visibility about a block currently. I’m pleased.

Stopped at my house and measured. Total weenie move, but whatever. 2.5” so far. Still dumping. Got very very lucky here.

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5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think this time DTX did a good job forecasting for SE MI. Right now going with 4-6" Oakland, 6-8" Macomb, 3-5" + icing Wayne/Monroe. Still so much model uncertainty with qpf and amount/extent of mixing.

What started out as a higher than normal certainty for a storm when this was in the medium range last week has turned into lower than normal certainty for day of. Recent trends show that regardless of what happens during most of the event (re: amounts, amount of mixing on SE side) looks like a few hours of heavy snow, heaviest of the entire event, may end the storm in the early overnight hours. Buckle up and let it snow!

It's definitely shaping up to be your type of pattern.

Even if the snow amounts with any one storm don't end up being significant, it should be enough to build deep-ish snowcover with snow on top of snow.

Congrats! 

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2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Good info as this band appears to be flocking this way.

It’s backed off now, but you’ll enjoy if you get into it. Solid hour of rip city. Thing is, there was a better looking band that went south of here thru Iroquois county.

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Still liking 6-8" for Toronto away from the lake, locally higher. Thinking 4" near the lake and Hamilton with mixing around midnight. 

Some virga on the radar right now due to dry air, but the column will quickly begin saturating by late afternoon. 

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1 hour ago, michaelmantis said:

And the towel is thrown in for most of NE IL. 

Amazed as the number of schools that canceled today. 

I'll believe the weekend storm when I see flakes. Was hoping to have a good week or two of storms and missed these threads!

GjnBwq9aIAEEjsz.jpeg

That dry slot had been eluded to on a lot of the snow maps the past 12-18 hours, just didnt think it would be quite so severe. 

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1 hour ago, michaelmantis said:

And the towel is thrown in for most of NE IL. 

Amazed as the number of schools that canceled today. 

I'll believe the weekend storm when I see flakes. Was hoping to have a good week or two of storms and missed these threads!

GjnBwq9aIAEEjsz.jpeg

Kind of a badly worded graphic there by LOT.

That is neither a dry slot nor dry air. There is a gap between better forcing. We've seen the first round of better forcing translate through over the past few hours, and we'll have another round later.

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1 hour ago, michaelmantis said:

And the towel is thrown in for most of NE IL. 

Amazed as the number of schools that canceled today. 

I'll believe the weekend storm when I see flakes. Was hoping to have a good week or two of storms and missed these threads!

GjnBwq9aIAEEjsz.jpeg

Just a reminder not to get too invested this season until flakes are falling. Just another fail in a season that has just been a dud.

With regards to the schools, I think the timing of the storm and after school pick-up was what drove that decision. From driving through the North Side into Niles, the roads are atrocious right now, I can only imagine how many more accidents we'd see with bus stops and after school pick-ups ongoing. Plus they work a day or two into the school year for these things..even if it ends up being a turd duster 

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