Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 7:48 PM, DocATL said: If NAM comes in like HRRR, I’m getting a new hobby. Expand You and me both. At least we got another storm system to look forward to disappointing us this weekend. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 ouch and Milwaukee just went WSW for Racine: WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 9 inches. Lake effect snow may bring locally higher totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:11 PM, ILSNOW said: ouch and Milwaukee just went WSW for Racine: WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 9 inches. Lake effect snow may bring locally higher totals. Expand Alek 5.5” call $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nam is at least a step better than 12Z, hoping the bleeding has stopped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:18 PM, mimillman said: Alek 5.5” call $$$ Expand dialed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I am so back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:39 PM, sbnwx85 said: I am so back. Expand Oh man, we’re rooting for the NAM… what have we done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:41 PM, Harry Perry said: Oh man, we’re rooting for the NAM… what have we done Expand My rule is wait to rely on until 24 hours before a storm (a rule I sometimes forget to follow). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looking like 1-3 inches here in IKK and some freezing rain. Big time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:47 PM, King James said: Looking like 1-3 inches here in IKK and some freezing rain. Big time lol Expand Same here in FWA. I'll be waving as it slides by to the north. Time to put my $7.99 a dozen eggs in the Saturday/Sunday basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:39 PM, sbnwx85 said: I am so back. Expand We ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:47 PM, King James said: Looking like 1-3 inches here in IKK and some freezing rain. Big time lol Expand That was like 24 hours ago. And just the NAM and one forecaster. Talking freezing rain. Alas, looking good 2-4” of sand. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 9:16 PM, Chicago WX said: That was like 24 hours ago. And just the NAM and one forecaster. Talking freezing rain. Alas, looking good 2-4” of sand. Enjoy!Freezing rain is mentioned for us in the 2:30 AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:20 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Nam is at least a step better than 12Z, hoping the bleeding has stopped Expand Can we rely on it though? It still along the cutoff line has a wildly different split. I’m going 2-4” north of US 24 and 1-2” south of it. Might as well just label it as cement for the final accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 8:57 PM, IWXwx said: Same here in FWA. I'll be waving as it slides by to the north. Time to put my $7.99 a dozen eggs in the Saturday/Sunday basket. Expand I'm hanging popsicle sticks on the clothesline tomorrow to give me something to suck on while I'm curled up in the fetal position until march lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 7:48 PM, DocATL said: If NAM comes in like HRRR, I’m getting a new hobby. Expand thought you were ok with 3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 9:18 PM, Jackstraw said: I'm hanging popsicle sticks on the clothesline tomorrow to give me something to suck on while I'm curled up in the fetal position until march lol Expand I spent last weekend in Indy where we got plain rain. I noticing ice on the drive north on Sunday afternoon in just about in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z rgem is best case scenario for whole detroit area, including Josh now. Wettest and snowiest run yet. Gfs too. I look forward to dtx issuing wwa then upgrading to a warning after 5 inches is already on the ground per usual. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 9:43 PM, Stevo6899 said: 18z rgem is best case scenario for whole detroit area, including Josh now. Wettest and snowiest run yet. I look forward to dtx issuing wwa then upgrading to a warning after 5 inches is already on the ground per usual. Expand I will give them this; the didn't cancel the watch yet for the eastern counties. They just might be catching on how to do it for our area 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Most models are fairly consistent with the snow band through Iowa. 4-6" looks reasonable here. The drying out from Missouri through Illinois is pretty brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 9:43 PM, Stevo6899 said: 18z rgem is best case scenario for whole detroit area, including Josh now. Wettest and snowiest run yet. Gfs too. I look forward to dtx issuing wwa then upgrading to a warning after 5 inches is already on the ground per usual. Expand I thought it never snows in Michigan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 3:18 PM, RCNYILWX said: Some hindsight involved here, but I think the average of the ensemble 10:1 mean, probability and percentile stuff told a pretty consistent story. From the NWS perspective, I haven't been directly involved in the forecast process this time, but the inter-office collab and collab with WPC aspect is way more challenging than many realize. Internally, we felt that the QPF and ratios were too aggressive but there's only so much we can do when trying to form a consistent picture across large regions. To me this looked like a advisory to perhaps low end warning event, particularly on the non-GFS/GEFS data. It's easy to get caught up in the Kuchera ratio output when assessing the snowfall forecast, that method is too simplistic though. 10:1 gets bashed, and it should in marginal temp situations and more clear cut high ratio setups, but I think it's a good first guess plenty of the time for synoptic systems. Use the 10:1 and then adjust up where you're confident better banding is going to set up, through using model diagnostics like f-gen and cross sections, and utilizing the Cobb output. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk Expand With complete respect, I don’t think this is accurate. Most guidance was hinting at around 0.4” of QPF 36 hours ago with ratios around 15:1, generally leading to 5-8” of snow. Some were showing even more, but I agree with not giving them much weight. Now it’s looking like 0.25” of QPF with 12:1 ratios, around 3” of snow. That’s a huge difference. It’s frustrating that a million things need to come together to get a proper snowfall around here. What happened to clippers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 10:06 PM, mimillman said: I thought it never snows in Michigan Expand Apparently that's chicago now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's close to the part of denial where we start saying things like "it's nowcasting time anyhow." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 9:53 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Most models are fairly consistent with the snow band through Iowa. 4-6" looks reasonable here. The drying out from Missouri through Illinois is pretty brutal. Expand Yeah don't remind me. Congrats to Iowa and Michigan crowd. Illinois can't catch a break this year esp my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 10:27 PM, Radtechwxman said: Yeah don't remind me. Congrats to Iowa and Michigan crowd. Illinois can't catch a break this year esp my neck of the woods. Expand Hasn't been any better up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 10:29 PM, McHenrySnow said: Hasn't been any better up here. Expand Keeping a glimmer of hope for weekend storm but keeping my expectations low unlike I did with this storm. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/11/2025 at 10:30 PM, Radtechwxman said: Keeping a glimmer of hope for weekend storm but keeping my expectations low unlike I did with this storm. Lol Expand It's already gone to shit as compared to a couple days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 it's a shame that this large-scale set-up is gonna go to waste. all of the pieces were in place, but smaller scale alignment of one or two things will be preventing the goods. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 RGEM for y'all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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