CIllinoisSnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Yeah it was nice to have something to track for once but it doesn’t looking like the bleeding is going to stop for us in Central IL, hoping those in Iowa/N IL/C MI can hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 My hope is I can hit 4", though 3.5" will make it the top event of the season. Anything less will definitely be a disappointment, but I'll take whatever I can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Definitely going to come down to nowcasting around these parts. Models don't have the low strengthening until it's SE of here but if it does sooner, could be better totals. Our friends to the NE into Ontario looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Some hindsight involved here, but I think the average of the ensemble 10:1 mean, probability and percentile stuff told a pretty consistent story. From the NWS perspective, I haven't been directly involved in the forecast process this time, but the inter-office collab and collab with WPC aspect is way more challenging than many realize. Internally, we felt that the QPF and ratios were too aggressive but there's only so much we can do when trying to form a consistent picture across large regions. To me this looked like a advisory to perhaps low end warning event, particularly on the non-GFS/GEFS data. It's easy to get caught up in the Kuchera ratio output when assessing the snowfall forecast, that method is too simplistic though. 10:1 gets bashed, and it should in marginal temp situations and more clear cut high ratio setups, but I think it's a good first guess plenty of the time for synoptic systems. Use the 10:1 and then adjust up where you're confident better banding is going to set up, through using model diagnostics like f-gen and cross sections, and utilizing the Cobb output. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Some hindsight involved here, but I think the average of the ensemble 10:1 mean, probability and percentile stuff told a pretty consistent story. From the NWS perspective, I haven't been directly involved in the forecast process this time, but the inter-office collab and collab with WPC aspect is way more challenging than many realize. Internally, we felt that the QPF and ratios were too aggressive but there's only so much we can do when trying to form a consistent picture across large regions. To me this looked like a advisory to perhaps low end warning event, particularly on the non-GFS/GEFS data. It's easy to get caught up in the Kuchera ratio output when assessing the snowfall forecast, that method is too simplistic though. 10:1 gets bashed, and it should in marginal temp situations and more clear cut high ratio setups, but I think it's a good first guess plenty of the time for synoptic systems. Use the 10:1 and then adjust up where you're confident better banding is going to set up, through using model diagnostics like f-gen and cross sections, and utilizing the Cobb output. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk Thanks!! I honestly only use the 10:1 ratio when looking at the models. I only see the Kuchera when someone posts here (stopped looking at those a long time ago). My thought is anything above the 10:1 model look is bonus snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12Z GFS and GEM are a little northwest and stronger 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looking like 2-3 inches in southwest Chicago burbs. Hopefully the bleeding stops. Don’t look at the ICON.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Chicago's area should get lake enhancement which the models are sometimes too coarse to pick up. I wouldn't worry too much I could see most of that metro getting 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Thinking Chicago NWS would like to go with WWA instead of WSW for the entire area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Thinking Chicago NWS would like to go with WWA instead of WSW for the entire area. Nitpicking but probably WWA for the majority of the CWA and WSW for northern cook and lake counties 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12z UKMET really focuses on the possible lake enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Lake enhancement will save Alec call 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 snippet from Milw Initially, dry Arctic air lingering at the surface will prevent snowfall from reaching the ground. However, by mid-morning Wednesday, expect boundary layer to saturate and steady snowfall to begin. Rates in the initial band will likely be in the 0.25-0.50 inch per hour range as it will primarily be driven by WAA in the 700-500 mb layer. That being said, high ratio snowfall is possible as the WAA actually nudges more of the column into the dendritic growth zone. The highest rates develop during the afternoon as low pressure begins to lift northward, WAA in the mid-levels is enhanced, and convergence off Lake Michigan begins to shift inland with a higher fetch. Rates up to 1 inch per hour are possible during this time frame, especially in the Milwaukee to Kenosha corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'm really shocked ILX upgraded to warning. This is going to be advisory snow. Definitely bummed about this one. Has not be a kind winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 been along time since we've had a storm ratched up less than 24 hours inbound, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 There are some noise level changes with the development of the defo on the 12z euro that if they continue to trend in the right direction can have a decent impact on LOT CWA. All in all I’d say positive signs from the 12z suite and we might start getting back an inch or two in next couple runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Just now, mimillman said: There are some noise level changes with the development of the defo on the 12z euro that if they continue to trend in the right direction can have a decent impact on LOT CWA. All in all I’d say positive signs from the 12z suite and we might start getting back an inch or two in next couple runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It's unfortunate how it kind of dries up further south. Only looks like 3-4in of solid snow rates. Curious how much this drying comes to fruition. Hoping for a better deformation band to materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 LOT going with WWA #### .UPDATE... Issued at 1131 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Quick update on tomorrow`s snow... After getting a look at 12z guidance, the trend of the sfc low being slower to deepen, thus farther east of the area continues. The result is lower QPF versus yesterday morning`s (and prior) guidance, so amounts that had looked to be borderline high end advisory/low end warning, are now looking more solidly advisory. As far as impacts go, snow, possibly heavy at times, is expected during the day tomorrow, likely causing significant travel issues. Ultimately, there really isn`t much difference between a 3-6" snow vs a 4-8" snow, so the key messages for the event remain largely unchanged. Still looks like southeastern CWA could see lower snowfall totals, but snow could mix with/change to some freezing rain or freezing drizzle Wed evening. So will be upgrading the winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory for our entire CWA. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/8/2025 at 7:02 AM, magoos0728 said: DAB... I was joking, really I was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z hrrr looks so bad. Man how the good have fallen. Now getting 2-3in may be optimistic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z hrrr looks so bad. Man how the good have fallen. Now getting 2-3in may be optimistic. Toss.But seriously why are we so bad at predicting the weather? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 HRRR is a bit too dry for what the simulated reflectivity looks like plus it is notoriously dry with synoptic snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, DocATL said: Toss. But seriously why are we so bad at predicting the weather? Models definitely seem to struggle more these days. This is probably worse downfall in a system I seen in a long time. 1 minute ago, Stebo said: HRRR is a bit too dry for what the simulated reflectivity looks like plus it is notoriously dry with synoptic snows. Simulated reflectivity did look like it should have produced more snow than it did 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Sees 15z SREF…walks back from ledge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 SREF plumes are supportive of 3-6” across the area, in line with more sensible guidance and headlines. Still think parts of Cook and Lake will see warning criteria but splitting hairs at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If NAM comes in like HRRR, I’m getting a new hobby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, DocATL said: If NAM comes in like HRRR, I’m getting a new hobby. it was nice having you around. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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