MidwestChaser Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Major oof on euro. I hope trends reverse tomorrow. But not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looking like the 0z models are clearly drier across the board An unfortunate trend this winter but pretty used to it at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, CIllinoisSnow said: Looking like the 0z models are clearly drier across the board An unfortunate trend this winter but pretty used to it at this point Definitely seems to be the theme of this winter. I truly thought we finally reeled one in but seasons trend won't be denied. Sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'll take that 00Z Canuck on a date lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 26 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Definitely seems to be the theme of this winter. I truly thought we finally reeled one in but seasons trend won't be denied. Sigh Best not to bet against the seasonal trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 hours ago, Radtechwxman said: Drier and se trend not being denied again. It's better than nam but not by a lot. Although 0z gfs didn't really come se. Just drier. Curious if this trend continues or if we see it level out or increase again. 2 hours ago, McHenrySnow said: The good news is we still have 36 hours for this to completely shit the bed. Multi year “drier, weaker, SE” trend will not be denied. Man I miss the “wagons north” days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2.7" final call for IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Bust 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 standard 4-8" event trending more towards 4-6". Hopefully, it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Well this went off the rails fast. Moisture is just not there. PWAT/low pressure/defo band all getting smaller and smaller and on 06z models even getting that more scattered look. 3-5” with isolated 6” further east looking more realistic as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 On 2/9/2025 at 1:15 PM, A-L-E-K said: Shame this one dusted out Going 5.5 imby final call Stay safe out there today friends delayed but not denied gonna bust way high lol u look under the hood at 500 vorticity and it's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If I can get 3-5" and limit the rain with this one I'll be pumped. Toronto itself is in a better position for 5-9" and almost no rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Seems models have gotten worse these days. Maybe too models and too many model runs? Feels like back in the day you could count on their depiction 3-4 days out, with some relative minor corrections as you got closer. Now its wholesale changes 24-36 hours out. Euro especially has become undependable, unlike the past. Used to be ironclad. Now it's like the 51 hour RAP. Oh well I guess. My original thoughts with this one were a 3-5/4-6" type system. Might be more like 1-3/3-5" at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'm still looking good in Alpena. Hoping for some rare lake enhancement off Huron to help accumulation. Going with a 6" total by noon Thursday. Only 48 hrs to go! Now I'm jinxed lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Still looks like a high end advisory event for most. Disappointing given what was progged but not a terrible result. Just reset expectations and you’ll be happy tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I think there’s a decent chance that a good part of Illinois is fighting for 1-3” tops. Northern 1/4 (QC, RFD, ORD, etc) should be fine (3-6”) but they’ll have the mid-level low snows to depend on, while the rest of us are banking on the main low which looks to develop slower and farther east than earlier predicted. Models really hitting this idea right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6z Euro ticked down again. Hopefully the bleeding stops at some point. DVN still going with 6-8" across the board, but that seems a bit high at this point unless model QPF ramps up again last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 47 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Seems models have gotten worse these days. Maybe too models and too many model runs? Feels like back in the day you could count on their depiction 3-4 days out, with some relative minor corrections as you got closer. Now its wholesale changes 24-36 hours out. Euro especially has become undependable, unlike the past. Used to be ironclad. Now it's like the 51 hour RAP. Oh well I guess. My original thoughts with this one were a 3-5/4-6" type system. Might be more like 1-3/3-5" at this point. I believe it had more do to with us knowing the biases. We knew the NW trend would continue until the bitter end. We knew the QPF could be cut to 60%. We knew if the EURO and GFS were different than ignore the GFS. I mentioned in an earlier post that several model update have left us with a lot less trust in any one solution. There is a lot more weak and further south with some occasional stronger further north. The biases have become difficult to predict (though generally I think we are seeing more weaker and further south overall than we were ever used to). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, Lightning said: I believe it had more do to with us knowing the biases. We knew the NW trend would continue until the bitter end. We knew the QPF could be cut 60%. We knew if the EURO and GFS were different than ignore the GFS. I mentioned in an earlier post that several model update have left us with a lot less trust in any one solution. There is a lot more weak and further south with some occasional stronger further north. The biases have become difficult to predict (though generally I think we are seeing more weaker and further south overall than we were ever used to). With all that being said the GFS has been schooling almost everybody the last few Winters, atleast with the events I've been tracking. Obviously many were hoping for the stronger Northwest storm. That's the problem with these Texas/colorado lows, us in Detroit we have to hope for the weaker solutions in order to get snow (or have the low eject further SE out of texas, gulf) which is a bummer for our friends to the west. At the end of the day you'd like to see a powerhouse storm for someone, and hopefully that delivers by the end of winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Only need to track about 6 more of these systems to reach seasonal snow averages. Or about three seasons worth of favorable pattern windows. NWS forecast still robust on this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 dusting trend looks to continue through 12z guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: dusting trend looks to continue through 12z guidance 12z NAM depiction of ALEK duster 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Models seem to be keeping the solid swath through Iowa, but drying it out to the south where it was supposed to be heavier. I was excited for this, but I caught an illness yesterday and I feel like crap today. The last thing I'd want to do now is go out into the cold to shovel/blow, or even measure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 As expected, the drying trend appears and bites into totals. Still a high end advisory event for all of LOT, liking the 4-6” look area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Multi year “drier, weaker, SE” trend will not be denied. Man I miss the “wagons north” days I'll take it all day Feeling more and more confident in a 3-6" for the Toledo metro as this goes on. To your point, wagons south and the GFS winning is an odd feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Went from a solid 8 to maybe a 4. Horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now