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2/12 Winter Storm


A-L-E-K
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Complex set up tomorrow for Toronto. Areas closer to the lake may switch over to freezing rain and rain but areas north of the 401 could stay predominately as snow. Temperatures are marginal, but sometimes models can underestimate the sneaky dynamic cooling plus the nearly frozen Lake Erie which may help to keep temperatures at bay. Certainly a nowcast event. 

Early call is 6-8" north of the 401 and closer to 4" near the lake. 

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19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

your area should do about as well as any for this event by the looks of radar imo

Wouldn’t be the first time I’ve gotten lucky here this season but I don’t relish in this super micro climate wins. I hope this over-performs for the region as a whole. God speed. We are officially now casting. 
 

 

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6 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Complex set up tomorrow for Toronto. Areas closer to the lake may switch over to freezing rain and rain but areas north of the 401 could stay predominately as snow. Temperatures are marginal, but sometimes models can underestimate the sneaky dynamic cooling plus the nearly frozen Lake Erie which may help to keep temperatures at bay. Certainly a nowcast event. 

Early call is 6-8" north of the 401 and closer to 4" near the lake. 

Ya, thats roughly what im thinking. My place is probably 3-5" followed by some freezing rain and rain. Just hoping it doesn't wash whatever falls all away. 

Saturday right now looks like a slightly colder version of this one. 

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I think this time DTX did a good job forecasting for SE MI. Right now going with 4-6" Oakland, 6-8" Macomb, 3-5" + icing Wayne/Monroe. Still so much model uncertainty with qpf and amount/extent of mixing.

What started out as a higher than normal certainty for a storm when this was in the medium range last week has turned into lower than normal certainty for day of. Recent trends show that regardless of what happens during most of the event (re: amounts, amount of mixing on SE side) looks like a few hours of heavy snow, heaviest of the entire event, may end the storm in the early overnight hours. Buckle up and let it snow!

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Rgem holding steady while short-term high-res models are keeping the bands further Nw. I think more than 12 hours out the rap and HHR tend to be too far Nw. That rain snow line stays just east in Canada. I'm curious what the ratios would be. temps look to be in the lower to mid-20s yet that rain snow line is so close.

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