DocATL Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 thought you were ok with 3"?The HRR had me closer to 2 inches verbatim and I would obviously be concerned about further trends to the lower end.This guy…on me like a hawk!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Joe always gets like that after a bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looking more like 3-5" for the QCA at this point. Solid event overall. Rates are probably gonna be pretty wussy for most of the event, but over the course of 18hrs we should build up a solid advisory criteria event. DVN going down with the ship and riding out the warning, which will likely bust for the southeast 2-3 of the cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Joe always gets like that after a bust what busted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 56 minutes ago, DocATL said: The HRR had me closer to 2 inches verbatim and I would obviously be concerned about further trends to the lower end. This guy…on me like a hawk! . i'm always lurking in the shadows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I'm surprised to still be in the game after all the model changes. My call of 6" still looks good for Alpena. Knock on wood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, mimillman said: I thought it never snows in Michigan It never rains in Southern California either... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 33 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 18z Euro Trash model. Shell of its former self. Sad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Trash model. Shell of its former self. Sad! Looking pretty locked for a 3-5”, event of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4.5” final call. Let’s stack some dendrites tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Will be nice for daytime snow too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 MSP gonna join the fun. 30% chance of snow tomorrow and up to 0.01” of precipitation. Final Call: 18 flakes. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Can't wait for Cantore to come to Detroit and it be a bust like it was the last time he came to town! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Been busy wrenching today, I always come here before looking at guidance to take the edge off of the let down I’ll have when I see all the guidance showing 1-2”. From what I’m reading, still sounds like a shit sandwich. Hopefully we can juice up just a little bit to ease the pain. 3-5” here sounds promising, for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Can't wait for Cantore to come to Detroit and it be a bust like it was the last time he came to town! Super bowl, Detroit in 06. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Stevo6899 said: Super bowl, Detroit in 06. Nah he was here the day that Oakland Hills Clubhouse burned down. That storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 HRRR ticked up (here at least, I'm not looking everywhere so forgive me if it doesn't apply at your house). Maybe there's hope. Hope is such a dangerous thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I hope MKE knows something LOT doesn’t. They’re still calling for 6-9+ in Kenosha County while LOT is calling 2-6 in Lake County. I understand lake enhancement is included in the totals but this seems like a pretty big jump moving one county south. Going in expecting LOT to be more accurate and if it ends up being more I’ll take it. Just glad to get some white stuff down to cover the brown grass at this point but geesh this has been a rough slide even by our standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Pretty good HRRR run for Detroit... Still some work to do but the northern burbs get a nice snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: HRRR ticked up (here at least, I'm not looking everywhere so forgive me if it doesn't apply at your house). Maybe there's hope. Hope is such a dangerous thing. Still garbage here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: HRRR ticked up (here at least, I'm not looking everywhere so forgive me if it doesn't apply at your house). Maybe there's hope. Hope is such a dangerous thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 From everything I looked at today, rates should be good for during the meat of the event, the main burst from the late morning through the afternoon. Felt confident enough to go with temporary 1/2 mile visibility in the 18z TAFs (in collab with the CWSU), which is not super common for us to do near or over 24 hours out.Forecast soundings are supportive of 1"/hour rates at times, so maybe the beefier looking sim ref output from some of the CAMs are onto something. We did account for the possibility of some lake enhancement of the totals into NE IL, though soundings don't look particularly impressive to generate notably higher totals (and impacts). Feeling pretty good overall about the 3-6" range for the metro mentioned in the advisory. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 All models now picking up on a band of 6"+ from South Bend to the thumb of Michigan... except the sad Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 School just "cancelled" for tomorrow (e-learning day) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hrrr is odd. Has a decent duration of snowfall, some good rates at times, yet shows pitiful accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: All models now picking up on a band of 6"+ from South Bend to the thumb of Michigan... except the sad Euro. It looks like they’re developing the system a little faster again and it’s causing a band of heavier snow to develop from about your area through the thumb and into Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Snowing already in Des Moines well ahead of schedule. WAA precip often begins earlier than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 38 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: All models now picking up on a band of 6"+ from South Bend to the thumb of Michigan... except the sad Euro. 12k NAM still has it. 3k NAM instead has a 5”+ stretch from Chicagoland into Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Snowing already in Des Moines well ahead of schedule. WAA precip often begins earlier than modeled. Fuck it, we are due for an overperformer 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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