sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 real nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 LOT just hoisted watch for entire CWA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Quad Cities, Grand Rapids and IWX just did too. EDIT: IWX is only for its far northwest counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:26 PM, mimillman said: LOT just hoisted watch for entire CWA Expand uh-oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Please shift just two counties to the southeast I want snow not ice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Starting to get worried here in Bloomington, that cutoff keeps inching closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:32 PM, sbnwx85 said: Quad Cities, Grand Rapids and IWX just did too. EDIT: IWX is only for its far northwest counties. Expand Grr also cut off their southeast counties Kinda odd since even if get shafted by the snow the ice plus snow would be warning criteria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:35 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Grr also cut off their southeast counties Kinda off since even if get shafted by the snow the ice plus snow would be warning criteria Expand Confidence might not be quite high enough yet the "wintry mix/freezing rain/ice" would hit warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:35 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Grr also cut off their southeast counties Kinda odd since even if get shafted by the snow the ice plus snow would be warning criteria Expand Makes not sense for watch IMO. They must be banking on a solid NW shift from all the major model guidance and buying the NAM 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 7:39 PM, sbnwx85 said: Confidence might not be quite high enough yet the "wintry mix/freezing rain/ice" would hit warning criteria. Expand Nor should it be. You have the GFS with a weaker system sliding east of Cleveland giving huge snows west and NW of the Maumee River while the Euro & NAM take the SLP center directly over Toledo. That’s still quite a bit of uncertainty for 2.5 days out. I would lean towards the NAM & Euro at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/9/2025 at 5:37 PM, cyclone77 said: Gonna make a stupid early call for here/QC of 4-6". Think our time is finally due. Expand Looking more like 6-9" now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Amazing difference between the 12k NAM and 3k. 18z 12k NAM 18z 3k NAM (still snowing at end of run) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Sometimes you just have to laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Izzi Unfortunately, as far as amounts go, there remains uncertainty in regards to specific totals. The uncertainty is driven largely by the questions in regards to the snow:liquid ratios (SLRs), with climo for southwest originating storms and the Cobb method both favoring SLRs closer to 10 to 11:1. NBM guidance is substantially higher, closer to 14-18:1, highest northwest CWA. For this forecast have split the difference between the 2 extremes, though forecast soundings (particularly in the warmer NAM) show a fairly deep isothermal layer closer to the -5C with the heavier precip, which would tend to favor more aggregates and lower SLRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Nice lake enhancement signal on the ICON. Locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 RGEM definitely backing off QPF but to be expected at this range. No change to call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 DVN saying 7-10" out here on the point and click. With temps in the teens, winds gusting to 25, and a mid day storm, you really cant draw up a better winter storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 9:08 PM, ILSNOW said: Izzi Unfortunately, as far as amounts go, there remains uncertainty in regards to specific totals. The uncertainty is driven largely by the questions in regards to the snow:liquid ratios (SLRs), with climo for southwest originating storms and the Cobb method both favoring SLRs closer to 10 to 11:1. NBM guidance is substantially higher, closer to 14-18:1, highest northwest CWA. For this forecast have split the difference between the 2 extremes, though forecast soundings (particularly in the warmer NAM) show a fairly deep isothermal layer closer to the -5C with the heavier precip, which would tend to favor more aggregates and lower SLRs. Expand Wow that's quite a bit different than what DVN's disco mentioned early this morning. Guess we'll just split the difference and go with 15:1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 9:22 PM, cyclone77 said: Wow that's quite a bit different than what DVN's disco mentioned early this morning. Guess we'll just split the difference and go with 15:1 lol Expand and Milwaukee In addition to storm track and strength, there are a couple of other uncertainties associated with Wednesday`s system. First, as east to northeast winds become better focused early Wednesday, and winds then turn more northerly during the day, lake enhanced snow is possible for locations near Lake Michigan, particularly from Milwaukee south toward Chicago. This could result in higher totals for this area. Second, SLRs look to be above average for much of this event, meaning this should be a dry and fairly fluffy snow. However, several factors have to come together just right to generate these higher SLRs, so any deviation could result in lower snow amounts. For now kept SLRs around 15:1 for this event, which is above climatology of 12:1, but lower than what some guidance is showing (closer to 20:1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 9:22 PM, cyclone77 said: Wow that's quite a bit different than what DVN's disco mentioned early this morning. Guess we'll just split the difference and go with 15:1 lol Expand Well, LOT/Izzi is going with warmest/farthest northwest model (NAM) for this system. Kind of a bold call, but what do I know. There has been a bit of a northwest jog in the track of this system in this morning`s guidance, most notably in the NAM. Often times in strong warm air advection regimes, the NAM ends up being closest to reality with how far north the snow/mix/rain line gets, so did lean a bit more toward the NAM solution bringing some freezing rain and sleet north into our far southern and southeastern CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 9:35 PM, Chicago WX said: Well, LOT/Izzi is going with warmest/farthest northwest model (NAM) for this system. Kind of a bold call, but what do I know. There has been a bit of a northwest jog in the track of this system in this morning`s guidance, most notably in the NAM. Often times in strong warm air advection regimes, the NAM ends up being closest to reality with how far north the snow/mix/rain line gets, so did lean a bit more toward the NAM solution bringing some freezing rain and sleet north into our far southern and southeastern CWA. Expand Rgem took a step towards gfs/ukie. Interesting battle setting up as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Our two Hi-RES(At least the ones I have access two, NAM/RGEM) models are at both end of the spectrums. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 9:44 PM, Stevo6899 said: Rgem took a step towards gfs/ukie. Interesting battle setting up as usual. Expand 18z GFS ticked northwest. I mean, I'm not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS continues trend of shaving QPF but actually looks like precip field expands. More spread the wealth, lower overall totals, still impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 9:55 PM, Chicago WX said: 18z GFS ticked northwest. I mean, I'm not surprised. Expand They both take the low pressure on a similar track but the intensity is the big difference. Probably lil things at this point and will come down to nowcasting as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Snow is fun time and ice is overtime for me. Either or I’ll take. Finally actually excited at the possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GEFS another slight improvement in qpf I know we're just jerkle circing over every bit of noise but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18Z RGEM is a smidge southeast but snowier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 10:26 PM, Malacka11 said: GEFS another slight improvement in qpf I know we're just jerkle circing over every bit of noise but Expand Not often you see the ensembles with better QPF than the OP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/10/2025 at 10:40 PM, mimillman said: Not often you see the ensembles with better QPF than the OP Expand It's giving me a bit of hope surplus rn for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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