Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Got to love it. Today the GFS goes weaker/South and Euro goes north/stronger. . I'll take the RGEM . Wouldn't be fun without the model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: My 7" actually makes me one of Iowa's winners this winter. There are still a few spots in sw Iowa that have received ZERO measurable snow. That's nuts. I think Mason City only has 2.7” on the season, which is arguably even more shocking than the SW Iowa stat since Mason City is near the MN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 What I trust is seasonal trends, which have been flatter/weaker/se. Haven't had an amped system yet this season, at least with Arctic air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: You'd like to see the GFS onboard as I believe it's schooled the euro mostly lately. Gfs just keeps it a disorganized mess, 1007 low vs 999 on canadian/euro/ukmet. Perhaps it's dealing with convection issues with the moisture to the south. When's the last time we had all 4 onboard at this range tho? Seems always one of 'em playing the hold-out lately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0z NAM looks pretty close to the 18z Euro. Shades of the past of the old EE rule? These days though, the NAM is worthless and the Euro is shaky at times. But, can't ignore the consistent moves NW by the Euro. If I was a betting man, I'd still side with it versus the other models. Iowa, N 1/4 IL, S 1/2 WI on east thru MI looking good right now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, hlcater said: Finally. That's what I'm thinking. Good-bye CAD and HELLO CAW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0z RGEM looks fantastic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The Euro, NAM, and RDPS are all trending heavier across Iowa. We need the GFS to wake up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 0z RGEM looks fantastic though. Looks like it actually closes off and goes negative tilt for a little bit in Ontario. Someone in Michigan gonna get walloped. Gonna be a close one for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Euro, NAM, and RDPS are all trending heavier across Iowa. We need the GFS to wake up. Who cares what the GFS shows. At this point, you guys are pretty much locked in. Enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The timing of this system is just about perfect. It should snow all day Wednesday across Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Who cares what the GFS shows. At this point, you guys are pretty much locked in. Enjoy. No one is ever locked into a system days out. Remember this "event"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: No one is ever locked into a system days out. Remember this "event"? Well, true. Think I almost jack potted in that disaster. Alas, I still like where Hawkeye, cyclone, etc sit right now on the modeling. But, still a bit of time to go to figure things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS not backing down from whatever its doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Oof.... the GFS actually sagged back south. It looks nothing like some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 While 00z GFS is south of the other models one positive is that it’s putting down more snow than its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS also furthest south with the system tomorrow in the Ohio Valley. While Louisville NWS did put out a Watch this evening, it's clear they are putting more stock in the other models, all of which show the heaviest snow further north. If the GFS were to verify, and there was confidence in it, Paducah would need to put out a Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Oz GGEM with a good hit. But it was definitely a step northwest, as much more of Iowa gets into the good snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro is a tick stronger and NW again too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro has a brutal cutoff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Looks p locked in the crew at klot says this is our moment GEFS improved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Looks p locked in the crew at klot says this is our moment GEFS improved Nice enhancement signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0z EPS likes Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Pretty much everything at 6z ticked northwest. GFS closer to everyone else now. 6z NAM has the left turn blinker stuck in the on position, doing 95 mph down the Kennedy. But, nice to see an overall uptick in QPF. Just need to hold it, or get better, for 2 more days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Just now, Chicago WX said: Pretty much everything at 6z ticked northwest. GFS closer to everyone else now. 6z NAM has the left turn blinker stuck in the on position, doing 95 mph down the Kennedy. But, nice to see an overall uptick in QPF. Just need to hold, or get better, for 2 more days. ez toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 DVN disco mentioned 15kft dendritic growth zone up to 550mb with relatively light winds throughout that portion of the column. Could lead to LSRs pushing 20:1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Getting dangerously close to that cutoff here in these parts but I still like where I sit. This should be a good hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Decent probabilities for 8"+ up in Chicago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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