A-L-E-K Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 IA/WI met/exceeded expectations, dusted out south and east (IKK weenie band) 3 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just when I thought I could put the snowblower back in the shed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This is BIG 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just when I thought I could put the snowblower back in the shed....Or take it down from eBay . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 DAB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 06z Euro.... keeps getting better 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Could this finally be the first storm for what seems like forever that doesn't trend southeast and weaker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 46 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Could this finally be the first storm for what seems like forever that doesn't trend southeast and weaker... There's going to be hard limit on the NW extent of this storm, given the overall flat/progressive pattern aloft. That said, the impressive baroclinic zone in place will support some nice frontogenesis banding in the cold sector. Feb. 2007 and Dec. 2000 might be good analogs... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Nice to see model agreement as well. Should be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 56 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Could this finally be the first storm for what seems like forever that doesn't trend southeast and Hopefully won't fall apart like snowstorm in Minnesota did for today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: There's going to be hard limit on the NW extent of this storm, given the overall flat/progressive pattern aloft. That said, the impressive baroclinic zone in place will support some nice frontogenesis banding in the cold sector. Feb. 2007 and Dec. 2000 might be good analogs... Yes and I hope I'm in it. As I posted before those of us that are north of I70 this setup is going to be feast or famine. Of course the last couple of runs have been wagons north so this thread will have 100 pages by tomorrow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 27 minutes ago, Powerball said: There's going to be hard limit on the NW extent of this storm, given the overall flat/progressive pattern aloft. That said, the impressive baroclinic zone in place will support some nice frontogenesis banding in the cold sector. Feb. 2007 and Dec. 2000 might be good analogs... Yeah that's probably one good thing about this pattern that we've been in is we haven't had to worry about storms going to our West. We just gotta ride that thin line all the time. It just bugs me to see these systems be so meager in the midwest but as soon as they get to the coast they develop and it's an automatic 6 for boston lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I didn’t see @A-L-E-Kreeling one in the way this winter has gone but look where we are now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Unlike the previous patterns, this is a Texas low pattern which is our favored pattern for the region. We aren't dealing with suppression either. It's not NW flow moisture starved unphased systems either. This pattern has the potential to be pretty good starting with this storm. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Hasn't just about every storm this season trended SE this season about 3-5 days out. I feel like the TPV will push the pattern slightly SE, albeit not to the extent as the previous storms. Not that I'm pulling for my backyard, it's just hard to ignore seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 It is time, something real and thread worthy to track.good vibes with this. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This is a top of the line look overall, with a lot of boxes checked. There's a lot going on here, which is why I mentioned in the medium/long range thread that this is one of the most complex large scale patterns that we've seen in quite a while. The typical Hudson TPV is displaced to the southwest, with a consistent 50/50 low around the Labrador Sea. We have not seen this placement of the TPV much over the past several years. Notice all of the significant ridging up near the pole, which is a product of a split of the SPV. It's not always that we see SPV effects translate immediately, but in this case we are. Also notice the positive height anomalies present in the East/Southeast, a product of a Southeast ridge. This is representative of the MJO, which has been translating through high correlation warm/East ridge favored phases. Heading into this pattern, we once again had a -EPO/Alaska ridge, which once again helped to re-charge Canada cross polar flow cold. 3 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Bullseye on 12z for metro detroit. Obviously you're always leery of a Northwest shift and we still got a system today and another one to go through so likely some changes to come. Lansing to chicago is a good place to be imo as it leaves wiggle room for some more strenghtneing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I’d be pretty optimistic if I were in Detroit/Toledo/Ft Wayne for this one. Very concerned about that low placement to the east, could be a significant icing event on deck here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: This is a top of the line look overall, with a lot of boxes checked. There's a lot going on here, which is why I mentioned in the medium/long range thread that this is one of the most complex large scale patterns that we've seen in quite a while. Does this kinda pattern lean towards storms strenghtneing more than models think, thus nw trends instead of weaker/se like we've seen for awhile?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The ICON is ramping this up big time. Models are digging the upper trough for the midweek system farther west, which is allowing the energy that's rounding the base to lift more nw and amp up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 A storm the models haven't disintegrated into nothingness within a couple model runs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 What an amazing upcoming pattern! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Early look at the euro and the ridging says it's going to come Nw from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Chicago to Detroit Crushed on the Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Trying to keep my hopes tempered pending the inevitable drying trend 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The super amped & nw ICON is an outlier this morning. The GFS, Euro, and UK are farther southeast, but still solid. The Canadian is way southeast and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 For the longest time I had no idea this was a real movie... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The super amped & nw ICON is an outlier this morning. The GFS, Euro, and UK are farther southeast, but still solid. The Canadian is way southeast and weak.Solid agreement in the 12z ensemble data overall (10:1 total and 24-hour snow swath as a proxy), particularly the EPS, GEFS, and UKMET ensembles (MOGREPS-G), which is good to see at this juncture. The CMCE is farther southeast but has enough more amped members to not be too crazy far off from the other ensemble systems. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 the 18Z NAM must have laid an egg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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