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2/8-2/9 Ice Event


sbnwx85
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Tomorrow, to me, has become another all ice event for at least the northern third of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Not a crazy ice storm but soundings on the HRRR and NAM show a freezing rain event and temps only in the mid to upper 20’s will make for very efficient icing. 0.10 to 0.20” seems likely with the most furthest east. 

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12 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Tomorrow, to me, has become another all ice event for at least the northern third of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Not a crazy ice storm but soundings on the HRRR and NAM show a freezing rain event and temps only in the mid to upper 20’s will make for very efficient icing. 0.10 to 0.20” seems likely with the most furthest east. 

Won’t be a fun day with all of that sleet and ice. Can’t come at a worse time either

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image.png.e73e3b610e18fa7137a3ec5c2a46c520.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Indiana into far southern Michigan and northern Ohio Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 081746Z - 082245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will gradually become more widespread across north/northeast Indiana and northern Ohio through the mid to late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a swath of stratiform precipitation (with embedded convective elements) becoming established across north-central IN as isentropic ascent increases within the warm conveyor belt of an intensifying mid-level low. This trend is expected to continue through the afternoon hours as warm/moist advection increases amid strengthening 925-700 mb winds. This mid-level warm advection will reinforce a weak warm-nose aloft, and should promote mainly liquid hydrometeors near the surface. Although surface temperatures are currently near freezing across northern IN/OH, dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s suggest that wet-bulb cooling to below freezing is likely after the initial onset of precipitation. This trend is already being observed at a few locations across northern IN with some ASOS/AWOS and mPING reports of freezing rain noted over the past 30-60 minutes. Surface temperatures from the 12 UTC HREF members appear to be running 1-3 F too cold compared to 17 UTC observations, which suggests that freezing rainfall estimates from these members/HREF probabilities may be too bullish. However, more recent deterministic solutions (HRRR/RAP) have captured surface temperature trends well and depict freezing rain rates of around 0.03 in/hour. These solutions also suggest that freezing rain potential may be greatest across northwest to north-central OH through late afternoon with accumulations up to 0.1 - 0.25 inch possible.

 

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Models phasing the northern energy and southern energy right over Ontario so feeling confident we can score 4-6" tonight. This should allow for favorable snow growth and decent snow ratios. Potential is also there for a shallow lake effect snow band to develop off Lake Ontario which will gradually shift SE towards Hamilton/Niagara as the storm pushes east. Some localized areas could see 6-8". 

Main FGEN band pushes through late this evening and could offer the best rates and thump of snow for the GTA. 

 

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8 minutes ago, roardog said:

Over performer here. Ended up with about 6 inches. We have about 11 inches on the ground now. 

Same score for mby. Had slight unexpected drifting so a couple spots are deeper

IMG_20250209_101929129.thumb.jpg.20464540348556bc983fb6f31b9b4533.jpg

The snow deer are pretty pleased tbh

1985313982_25-02-09SnowDeer.jpg.1b54fd7a54d7292f512405debb6a5869.jpg

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