Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[ag3]

I would be stunned if this doesn’t continue to trend north.

Excited about this one.

[ag3]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

Depends for who. Most of LI got 3-5” tonight 

I think this one has a chance of higher. 4”-8” potential.

[the_other_guy]

Here is a little trivia;

 

When was the last time NYC had a snow storm with snow already on the ground?

 

It has been years I think

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

I think this one has a chance of higher. 4”-8” potential.

which METS are saying that ?

[MJO812]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

which METS are saying that ?

He is using his brain and pattern recognition.  

[TJW014]

I think 3-4" is a good "way too early call" for areas south of I-80. Maybe up to 5" for Mercer/Middlesex/Monmouth/Ocean Counties if the north trend continues

[ag3]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

which METS are saying that ?

Experience. These almost always trend north. 

[BoulderWX]

Was on the western edge yesterday and look to be on the far northern fringe *right now* but I’ve been enjoying tracking both. If I could pull off two to three for the third event in basically ten days, I’d call that a big win

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

Experience. These almost always trend north. 

yes but saying  4-8 at this moment is a stretch with no evidence IMO

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Here is a little trivia;

 

When was the last time NYC had a snow storm with snow already on the ground?

 

It has been years I think

just last year, we had 4 inches followed by 6 inches in the same week in February

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

which METS are saying that ?

3-5 is much more likely based on the speed of the northern stream.  There will no 8 inch amounts from this storm ANYWHERE just like there were none from the last storm ANYWHERE either.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

3-5 is much more likely based on the speed of the northern stream.  There will no 8 inch amounts from this storm just like there were none from the last storm either

Maybe but too early to say

[MJO812]

Ag3 is a conservative poster. Buckle up when he calls for something. 

[ag3]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

3-5 is much more likely based on the speed of the northern stream.  There will no 8 inch amounts from this storm ANYWHERE just like there were none from the last storm ANYWHERE either.

Euro has 5”-10” amounts in the bullseye areas to the south.

[ag3]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It's good to be conservative but Ag3 is far from that.

I’m almost always conservative with snow. I like the Tuesday night event. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I’m almost always conservative with snow. I like the Tuesday night event. 

Yep changed my post

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Classic screw zone for us. SNE got yesterday, although many underperformed, and Mid-Atlantic gets Tuesday. 

However given the trends north with yesterday's system I'd say there's still a shot things trend in that direction with this.

It's funny how these things don't work out.  The southern trends stay north, and the northern trends stay south anyway...

[mikem81]

NAM well north at 12z but it sucked last night so we’ll see. Good trend though

[BxEngine]

24 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Was on the western edge yesterday and look to be on the far northern fringe *right now* but I’ve been enjoying tracking both. If I could pull off two to three for the third event in basically ten days, I’d call that a big win

Agreed. Active patterns are at least not boring as hell, and we’ve had snow events. If we arent gonna get a monster storm, ill take this over the alternatives. Its february. Rooting for warm and dry is weird.

[wdrag]

This thread will continue as posted as I responded to complaints and incorporated multiple probable snow accumulators of some sort for NYC, Tue night(2-5), Wednesday evening (1" or less), and Saturday evening-possibly into Monday morning the 17th (large multi hazard event?).  This was done to limit threads for clicking back and forth.  This particular thread will probably be extended through the 16th or early 17th, in the late afternoon pre Super Bowl update, pending review of the 12z ensembles.  This is your week.  Have tried to keep this simple but you have to admit to being thrilled with snow action and an unusual train of wintry threats. 

 I'll separate out the OBS threads for each of the next 3 wintry events. 

Also Next Monday we'll add up the total melted qpf which has a very good chance to be 3" in at least a fairly large portion of our NYC sub forum, between the 6th-16th. Already as of this morning is widespread 0.5-1.2". 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

NAM well north at 12z but it sucked last night so we’ll see. Good trend though

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Agreed. Active patterns are at least not boring as hell, and we’ve had snow events. If we arent gonna get a monster storm, ill take this over the alternatives. Its february. Rooting for warm and dry is weird.

this is way better than cold and rainy too

 

[Krs4Lfe]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

just last year, we had 4 inches followed by 6 inches in the same week in February

 

Yeah you guys got into that good banding during the Friday night storm last February. 2-3” for most of NYC but south shore had around 6”. Central park around 2.” Central Park came just short or 4” for the storm earlier that week (it was Tuesday I believe), but most of NYC had a 3-5” for that one. Winter came in 2 weeks last year. There was a week in January where there were 2 separate 1.5” events (light snow). And then like 2 separate 3-5” in mid February. Central Park was still short of 10” though. At least this winter has been a bit more staggered. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Better jet streak

[mikem81]

18 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

NAM well north at 12z but it sucked last night so we’ll see. Good trend though

It wasnt so north but i really was focusing on the strength and LP

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah you guys got into that good banding during the Friday night storm last February. 2-3” for most of NYC but south shore had around 6”. Central park around 2.” Central Park came just short or 4” for the storm earlier that week (it was Tuesday I believe), but most of NYC had a 3-5” for that one. Winter came in 2 weeks last year. There was a week in January where there were 2 separate 1.5” events (light snow). And then like 2 separate 3-5” in mid February. Central Park was still short of 10” though. At least this winter has been a bit more staggered. 

I find the south shore gets more snow in el ninos, especially strong ones.  Most of our 20"+ events here came in strong el ninos

 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I got 3 inches yesterday.  Who was screwed ?  I have screenshots of you stating that NYC was only going to get 2 inches for the rest of the month but I'm not going to post those.  Stop making blank statements.

I got a half inch of slop yesterday.  No worries because I knew it wasn’t going to produce out here.  We all know that we’re not going to get snow from every system that comes.  I am very happy that you folks in the city and on the island did well with it.  In any case this week looks quite good.

[EastonSN+]

The crazy snow mean on the ensembles for Central Park was approximately 11.5 for the 360 hours. So far two storms down in Central Park has about 4.2 inches. That snow mean may come to fruition. Just 7.3 to go to meet it.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I got 3 inches yesterday.  Who was screwed ?  I have screenshots of you stating that NYC was only going to get 2 inches for the rest of the month but I'm not going to post those.  Stop making blank statements.

JFK snow amount updated to 3.4"

 

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Classic screw zone for us. SNE got yesterday, although many underperformed, and Mid-Atlantic gets Tuesday. 

However given the trends north with yesterday's system I'd say there's still a shot things trend in that direction with this.

More than half of this board did well with this event.