Discussion for a probable 2 or 3 winter storms/events between Tue Feb 11 - Sat Feb 15. OBS threads for each will be added as needed.

[MJO812]

Cutters next week for now

[nycsnow]

All rain events next week. This epic 10 day period on life support. Thankfully times on our side 

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cutters next week for now

Prob change in 6 hours hopefully 

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Prob change in 6 hours hopefully 

Thursday I think would change but Tuesday has some promise 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cutters next week for now

We rain 

 

oh well. I’m about done 

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cutters next week for now

They were just showing too south. So we’ll see. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, mattinpa said:

They were just showing too south. So we’ll see. 

The first wave is too far south then the follow-up wave is a cutter. 

The fact that Blue Wave is on the upcoming blocky period coming up is a good sign however. The concern would be suppression once it sets in like January. Check the below that's an intense block and by that time we lose our South East ridge..

We shall see.

 

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We rain 

 

oh well. I’m about done 

We really need Tuesday to work out with Thursday looking like mostly rain. Hopefully we can get a north trend for Tuesday. We're on the edge right now which is close enough 3 days out. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The first wave is too far south then the follow-up wave is a cutter. 

The fact that Blue Wave is on the upcoming blocky period coming up is a good sign however. The concern would be suppression once it sets in like January. Check the below that's an intense block and by that time we lose our South East ridge..

We shall see.

 

I don’t love the pattern right now after 2/20, it has the look of cold and dry on alot of ensemble members.  I don’t necessarily see suppression just nothing on some of the members patterns shown 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We rain 

 

oh well. I’m about done 

Buckled up for nothing once again

[Allsnow]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Buckled up for nothing once again

Such good ens supports for days just for it to collapse 

[anthonymm]

This was a lesson in not trusting ensembles. Models failed epically. You can make a killing betting under 5" for february on the betting markets. Kalshi still thinks central park's gonna see 10" this month 

[NYER72]

Milton Florida seeing more than Central Park would be quite something. 

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don’t love the pattern right now after 2/20, it has the look of cold and dry on alot of ensemble members.  I don’t necessarily see suppression just nothing on some of the members patterns shown 

This has to be what happened between 1970 and 1999. The old fashioned cold and dry warm and wet LOL.

[cleetussnow]

Cutters cut.  Swfs cut.  Millers bs cut.  Never the other around.  Cutters do not come back on models.  Once the cut trend begins it doesn’t stop and thats what we are getting.  

[EastonSN+]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Buckled up for nothing once again

That dude told people to buckle up again, that's terrible.

[SnoSki14]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We rain 

 

oh well. I’m about done 

Cool

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Buckled up for nothing once again

Have to wait for the mjo to get back into 8. I'm patient .

[Allsnow]

AI bumps south for Tuesday night… no a good sign 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

We rain 

 

oh well. I’m about done 

I’ve been done. Like I said, wake me up when we have something within 72 hours. Couldn’t care less about pretty ensemble maps with 1000”. 

[jm1220]

47 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Cutters cut.  Swfs cut.  Millers bs cut.  Never the other around.  Cutters do not come back on models.  Once the cut trend begins it doesn’t stop and thats what we are getting.  

The PV is too far west which makes the trough axis too far west. When that happens we get a cutter or SWFE. 

[Krs4Lfe]

As unscientific as it sounds, nature seems to have a good memory. It has found so many ways not to significantly snow here in NYC this winter. It’s like 2019 winter, everything goes to the south and we’re cold and dry or everything goes to the north and we’re warm and raining. At least it’s better than 2023 and 2024 winters which weren’t good for anyone. It’s too bad, the storm next week had potential too but won’t do it

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cutters next week for now

say what, what happened to the suppressed system for Tuesday

[SnoSki14]

Ensembles being this off would be something 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

As unscientific as it sounds, nature seems to have a good memory. It has found so many ways not to significantly snow here in NYC this winter. It’s like 2019 winter, everything goes to the south and we’re cold and dry or everything goes to the north and we’re warm and raining. At least it’s better than 2023 and 2024 winters which weren’t good for anyone. It’s too bad, the storm next week had potential too but won’t do it

it's not unscientific it shows there is some factor not being accounted for that is making the same outcome happen again and again.

Probably having to do with the fast Pacific flow.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This has to be what happened between 1970 and 1999. The old fashioned cold and dry warm and wet LOL.

If we had modern tech back 1970 - 1999, the busts would be just as bad.  Chaos theory always trumps modern technology.

 

[Stormlover74]

LR rgem looks nice for Tuesday night

[nycsnow]

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

LR rgem looks nice for Tuesday night

Image

still More to go 

[Allsnow]

53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

LR rgem looks nice for Tuesday night

It will be wrong 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

It will be wrong 

I wouldn't be shocked if the models shift after tonight's storm leaves.